CEO, ByteTree Asset Management

ByteTree Asset Management

Specialising in Bitcoin, Gold and Digital Assets

Investment Manager specialising in bitcoin, gold and digital assets

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>With stocks up while the dollar is down, 2023 continues to surprise.</li><li>It was supposed to be the great recession, but the market says otherwise.</li><li>That is one of the confusions around gold. In this week’s Atlas Pulse, I compared the bull vs bear arguments. </li></ul>

With stocks up while the dollar is down, 2023 continues to surprise.It was supposed to be the great recession, but the market says otherwise.That is one of the confusions around gold. In this week’s Atlas Pulse, I compared the bull vs bear arguments. 

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Seek carry / exposure in Eastern Europe, if you think the USD will weaken further - it is your best BETA</li>
<li>Prefer metals to oil as the correlation between a weaker USD and higher commodity prices is stronger and more stable in precious -and industrial metals over time</li>
<li>Hold less (USD) cash than in 2022 as investors will seek for the USD cash exit door</li>
</ul>


Seek carry / exposure in Eastern Europe, if you think the USD will weaken further - it is your best BETA
Prefer metals to oil as the correlation between a weaker USD and higher commodity prices is stronger and more stable in precious -and industrial metals over time
Hold less (USD) cash than in 2022 as investors will seek for the USD cash exit door


Asset Allocation Watch - How to Position for USD Weakness?

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Our models suggest that we should see further weakness in the USD in the coming months.</li>
<li>Expected interest rate divergence (EU/US) would, all else equal, strengthen the Euro relative to the Dollar.</li>
<li>Another source of dollar weakness can be attributed to the rise in the Chinese credit impulse.</li>
</ul>


Our models suggest that we should see further weakness in the USD in the coming months.
Expected interest rate divergence (EU/US) would, all else equal, strengthen the Euro relative to the Dollar.
Another source of dollar weakness can be attributed to the rise in the Chinese credit impulse.


The Dollar O’ Meter #1 – 5 Ways to Gauge the Usd Outlook

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have outlined our bullish DXY zone at 103 but what if the dollar front runs a bull turn as the bulk of near-term yield weakness is baked in.</li>
<li>USD lows versus Asian FX shows the ability to turn USD bullish early.</li>
<li>SPX rise off of 3,900 pivot support after cracking RSI and price wedge supports a concern if we cannot muster a near term reaction rise.</li>
</ul>


We have outlined our bullish DXY zone at 103 but what if the dollar front runs a bull turn as the bulk of near-term yield weakness is baked in.
USD lows versus Asian FX shows the ability to turn USD bullish early.
SPX rise off of 3,900 pivot support after cracking RSI and price wedge supports a concern if we cannot muster a near term reaction rise.


<ul>
<li>The Euro's high momentum decline post 1.07 break of key support opens the wave for macro weakness after a tactical bounce we see further downside risk to 0.96 and 0.88.</li>
<li>Bear triangulation and the impulse lower shore up the USD's bull posture in Asia and EM.</li>
<li>Buy USD weakness remains our mantra toward DXY 118 and will have a major impact on risk assets into September and then again in Q1 2023.</li>
</ul>


The Euro's high momentum decline post 1.07 break of key support opens the wave for macro weakness after a tactical bounce we see further downside risk to 0.96 and 0.88.
Bear triangulation and the impulse lower shore up the USD's bull posture in Asia and EM.
Buy USD weakness remains our mantra toward DXY 118 and will have a major impact on risk assets into September and then again in Q1 2023.


United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Going for Gold

With stocks up while the dollar is down, 2023 continues to surprise. It was supposed to be the great recession, but the market says otherwise.

ByteTree Asset Management

Asset Allocation Watch - How to Position for USD Weakness?

We find conviction that further weakness in the USD is up ahead in the next few months. If we are correct, how should one then position for such a...

Steno Research

The Dollar O’ Meter #1 – 5 Ways to Gauge the Usd Outlook

The importance of the dollar and its influence on almost any given asset will come to nobody’s surprise. Therefore we are launching the Dollar O’...

Steno Research

USD Low Gels Dec Risk Peak

We have outlined our bullish DXY zone at 103 but what if the dollar front runs a bull turn as the bulk of near-term yield weakness is baked in. SPX...

Thomas Schroeder

Euro Macro Bear Target and Risk Message

The Euro's high momentum decline post 1.07 break of key support opens the wave for macro weakness after a tactical bounce we see further downside...

Thomas Schroeder

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