Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Fed's focus on keeping inflation expectations well anchored, stable rates markets after meeting</li><li>Market optimism over potential trade deals with UK and China, potential tariff rate reduction</li><li>Forecast for US Rates largely unchanged, expect labor market weakness prompt Fed response, adjusted yield forecasts reflecting later start to easing and elevated uncertainty</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Fed's focus on keeping inflation expectations well anchored, stable rates markets after meetingMarket optimism over potential trade deals with UK and China, potential tariff rate reductionForecast for US Rates largely unchanged, expect labor market weakness prompt Fed response, adjusted yield forecasts reflecting later start to easing and elevated uncertaintyThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul><li>Potential diversification of sovereign bond holdings away from U.S. treasuries and into other government markets, particularly in Euro area government bonds</li><li>FX hedging impacts on cross currency basis markets from hedging of dollar assets, with potential flow of reserve managers into European rates markets</li><li>Strategic bullish duration stance on German yields driven by expectations of ECB easing, lower inflation, easing of term premium, and positive carry in long duration exposures</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Potential diversification of sovereign bond holdings away from U.S. treasuries and into other government markets, particularly in Euro area government bondsFX hedging impacts on cross currency basis markets from hedging of dollar assets, with potential flow of reserve managers into European rates marketsStrategic bullish duration stance on German yields driven by expectations of ECB easing, lower inflation, easing of term premium, and positive carry in long duration exposuresThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: European rates market round-up

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>After several attempts, 10s30s closed in positive territory earlier this week for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine.</li><li>Is it time to put on additional Steepeners, though? The answer comes down to the view on the US trade war.</li><li>The arguments for steeper curves are well-known: 1. More issuance because of defence spending and German infrastructure investment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

After several attempts, 10s30s closed in positive territory earlier this week for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine.Is it time to put on additional Steepeners, though? The answer comes down to the view on the US trade war.The arguments for steeper curves are well-known: 1. More issuance because of defence spending and German infrastructure investment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The aggregate speculative bearish USD position has pushed deeper into negative territory, widening $3.1bn w/w to $17.0bn.</li><li>This week’s adjustments were relatively small overall, concentrated primarily in EUR with modest contributions from adjustments to MXN, NZD, and GBP as well.</li><li>The CAD and JPY positions were remarkably unchanged. The JPY position remains the largest held long against the USD, followed by EUR.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate speculative bearish USD position has pushed deeper into negative territory, widening $3.1bn w/w to $17.0bn.This week’s adjustments were relatively small overall, concentrated primarily in EUR with modest contributions from adjustments to MXN, NZD, and GBP as well.The CAD and JPY positions were remarkably unchanged. The JPY position remains the largest held long against the USD, followed by EUR.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - USD Bear Bet Builds & Gold Long Tumbles

<ul><li>We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).</li><li>The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.</li><li>Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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US Rates – Deal or no deal?

The Fed's focus on controlling inflation expectations was overshadowed by market reaction to Trump's trade deal announcement with the UK, optimism...

At Any Rate

Global Rates: European rates market round-up

Discussion on potential diversification of sovereign bond holdings, FX hedging impacts, Europe's benefit from de-dollarization, and strategic...

At Any Rate

EUR rates: 10s30s in positive

After several attempts, 10s30s closed in positive territory earlier this week for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine. Is it time to put on...

Nordea

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - USD Bear Bet Builds & Gold Long Tumbles

This week’s adjustments were relatively small overall, concentrated primarily in EUR with modest contributions from adjustments to MXN, NZD, and...

Scotiabank

FX Forecast Update—October 2023

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).

Scotiabank

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