Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Repo markets over year end were more subdued than expected, with balances reaching $473 billion in the afternoon on December 31st.</li><li>The Fed's balance sheet runoff, or QT, is expected to end by the first quarter of the year, with reserves holding above $3 trillion for most of last year.</li><li>Potential delays in ending QT could be influenced by the resolution of the debt ceiling and the desired amount of reserves banks want to hold.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Repo markets over year end were more subdued than expected, with balances reaching $473 billion in the afternoon on December 31st.The Fed's balance sheet runoff, or QT, is expected to end by the first quarter of the year, with reserves holding above $3 trillion for most of last year.Potential delays in ending QT could be influenced by the resolution of the debt ceiling and the desired amount of reserves banks want to hold.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: An uneventful year-end for repo

<ul>
<li>Resilience is showing up in survey data, impacting yields and strategies in Oregon and beyond</li>
<li>Rising term premium and fiscal spending expectations affecting markets, especially the dollar</li>
<li>Sterling facing challenges with lower quality carry, fiscal issues, and potential growth slowdown, while Dollar remains bullish with strong US employment report and Fed outlook</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Resilience is showing up in survey data, impacting yields and strategies in Oregon and beyond
Rising term premium and fiscal spending expectations affecting markets, especially the dollar
Sterling facing challenges with lower quality carry, fiscal issues, and potential growth slowdown, while Dollar remains bullish with strong US employment report and Fed outlook

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul>
<li>Federal Reserve and Bank of England both make decisions that are more dovish than expected</li>
<li>Market pricing reflects uncertainty and potential easing in the future</li>
<li>Central banks take steps to ensure smooth funding and liquidity in the markets, including adjustments to repo facilities and addressing debt ceiling issues.</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Federal Reserve and Bank of England both make decisions that are more dovish than expected
Market pricing reflects uncertainty and potential easing in the future
Central banks take steps to ensure smooth funding and liquidity in the markets, including adjustments to repo facilities and addressing debt ceiling issues.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: Hawkish cuts and dovish holds

<ul><li>JP Morgan's base case outcome for 2025 euro rate outlook is positive, with a focus on growing euro economy and inflation reaching 2%</li><li>French political uncertainty may cause modest widening in intra-EMU spreads, but overall outlook remains positive</li><li>German swap spreads expected to stay range bound with modest widening bias, driven by technical flows and repo rates</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

JP Morgan's base case outcome for 2025 euro rate outlook is positive, with a focus on growing euro economy and inflation reaching 2%French political uncertainty may cause modest widening in intra-EMU spreads, but overall outlook remains positiveGerman swap spreads expected to stay range bound with modest widening bias, driven by technical flows and repo ratesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: European rates 2025 outlook

<ul><li>Market fluctuations in CNY and Euro currencies, potential impact of PBOC reaction function and ECB policies</li><li>Possibility of increased pessimism in Europe not fully priced in, with potential for further downside in Euro</li><li>Recommendations for underweight positions on Euro compared to USD, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen, with potential for continued market movement</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market fluctuations in CNY and Euro currencies, potential impact of PBOC reaction function and ECB policiesPossibility of increased pessimism in Europe not fully priced in, with potential for further downside in EuroRecommendations for underweight positions on Euro compared to USD, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen, with potential for continued market movementThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Are trade risks already priced into currencies?

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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US Rates: An uneventful year-end for repo

Repo markets remained stable at year end, with significant increases in Treasury sponsor repo balances and FICC sponsored repo usage, while the...

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Global FX: No calm before the storm

Overall, the update highlights various factors impacting market trends and currency movements, including resilience in survey data in Oregon,...

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Global Rates: Hawkish cuts and dovish holds

Overall, the BOE and Fed's monetary policy decisions, potential government shutdown, debt ceiling concerns, and Fed's balance sheet shifts are key...

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Global Rates: European rates 2025 outlook

The US election result has created uncertainty, impacting policy rates and Euro strategy, with a focus on owning duration and carry trades,...

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Global FX: Are trade risks already priced into currencies?

The Euro and CNY saw significant movements this week, with the PBOC setting a line in the sand for the CNY, leading to a potential shift in the...

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