Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Gold prices have broken out higher, but unusually this cannot be explained by the US Fed</li>
<li>China is a de facto part of the notional US dollar area and the PBoC is easing once again</li>
<li>PBoC ends October-April tightening: injecting RMB 1.1 trillion into markets in May and June</li>
<li>Gold prices and PBoC liquidity are closely correlated. China is driving gold prices higher</li>
</ul>


Gold prices have broken out higher, but unusually this cannot be explained by the US Fed
China is a de facto part of the notional US dollar area and the PBoC is easing once again
PBoC ends October-April tightening: injecting RMB 1.1 trillion into markets in May and June
Gold prices and PBoC liquidity are closely correlated. China is driving gold prices higher


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Markets are showing signs of weakening at logical resistance as we anticipated in last week’s Int’l Compass - we recommend being selective in new purchases. At the same time we are seeing a number of indicators that are giving signals conducive to higher equity prices, meaning global equities may be gearing up for an eventual breakout topside resistance. In this report we highlight some attractive and actionable themes (Miners, consumer staples, and several attractive individual set ups in Thailand) along with indicators that support our overall constructive outlook.

Markets are showing signs of weakening at logical resistance as we anticipated in last week’s Int’l Compass - we recommend being selective in new purchases. At the same time we are seeing a number of indicators that are giving signals conducive to higher equity prices, meaning global equities may be gearing up for an eventual breakout topside resistance. In this report we highlight some attractive and actionable themes (Miners, consumer staples, and several attractive individual set ups in Thailand) along with indicators that support our overall constructive outlook.

U.S.Dollar Weakness A Tailwind For International Markets

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this year.  The Fed has the greatest scope to ease policy, and the prospect of deep rate cuts has undermined the USD.  However, the Fed is struggling to gain the initiative and appears to be reacting to market pressure and outside criticism rather than setting its own agenda. Gold has broken the range highs over the last six years and may have further to run as central bank policy easing sends investors in search of alternatives to fiat currencies.  Trump's attacks on the Fed’s independence and threats against other countries alleged attempts to devalue their currencies cannot be helping the dollar and adds support to gold.  A range of geopolitical risks driven by unprecedented US administration aggression may further support gold.  A G20 attempt to restart US-China trade negotiations may provide a reprieve for the USD and US yields, and provide a dip in gold. Facebook’s Libra represents yet another threat to the USD. Its announcement in the same week as Trump stomps on the institutional underpinnings for the USD is a foreboding sign.

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this year.  The Fed has the greatest scope to ease policy, and the prospect of deep rate cuts has undermined the USD.  However, the Fed is struggling to gain the initiative and appears to be reacting to market pressure and outside criticism rather than setting its own agenda. Gold has broken the range highs over the last six years and may have further to run as central bank policy easing sends investors in search of alternatives to fiat currencies.  Trump's attacks on the Fed’s independence and threats against other countries alleged attempts to devalue their currencies cannot be helping the dollar and adds support to gold.  A range of geopolitical risks driven by unprecedented US administration aggression may further support gold.  A G20 attempt to restart US-China trade negotiations may provide a reprieve for the USD and US yields, and provide a dip in gold. Facebook’s Libra represents yet another threat to the USD. Its announcement in the same week as Trump stomps on the institutional underpinnings for the USD is a foreboding sign.

Which Currency Do You Want to Hold – Gold, Crypto or Fiat?

Despite negative recent developments, we have remained steadfast in our belief that weakness in May has presented an attractive time to add exposure. In our June International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to this belief, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities within our favorite Groups, spanning the Consumer Staples, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Services, Health Care, and Financial Sectors.

Despite negative recent developments, we have remained steadfast in our belief that weakness in May has presented an attractive time to add exposure. In our June International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to this belief, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities within our favorite Groups, spanning the Consumer Staples, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Services, Health Care, and Financial Sectors.

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Cautiously Optimistic Outlook Intact

With a small break in the onslaught of bad news on trade barriers and talk of anti-trust investigations, US equities rebound from their recent sharp falls.  US yields are also off the deck, but the market is sending out invitations for a rate cut party, and waiting for the Fed to turn-up.  Fed Chair gave just enough hint that he might turn up, but he is still reluctant to acknowledge that risks to growth have increased. Lower US yields and hopes of rate cuts have shifted the tone from a strong dollar to a weak dollar, and this may continue for the time being. PMI data for the US from Markit have fallen sharply already pointing to weak US growth, running now below the Eurozone.  With some mixed messages from US data, payrolls data on Friday may take on even more significance.

With a small break in the onslaught of bad news on trade barriers and talk of anti-trust investigations, US equities rebound from their recent sharp falls.  US yields are also off the deck, but the market is sending out invitations for a rate cut party, and waiting for the Fed to turn-up.  Fed Chair gave just enough hint that he might turn up, but he is still reluctant to acknowledge that risks to growth have increased. Lower US yields and hopes of rate cuts have shifted the tone from a strong dollar to a weak dollar, and this may continue for the time being. PMI data for the US from Markit have fallen sharply already pointing to weak US growth, running now below the Eurozone.  With some mixed messages from US data, payrolls data on Friday may take on even more significance.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Does China Control The World Gold Price?

Gold prices have broken out higher, but unusually this cannot be explained by the US Fed China is a de facto part of the notional US dollar area...

Michael J. Howell

U.S.Dollar Weakness A Tailwind For International Markets

Markets are showing signs of weakening at logical resistance as we anticipated in last week’s Int’l Compass - we recommend being selective in new...

Vermilion Research

Which Currency Do You Want to Hold – Gold, Crypto or Fiat?

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this...

Greg Gibbs

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Cautiously Optimistic Outlook Intact

Despite negative recent developments, we have remained steadfast in our belief that weakness in May has presented an attractive time to add...

Vermilion Research

Will Powell Come to the Party?

With a small break in the onslaught of bad news on trade barriers and talk of anti-trust investigations, US equities rebound from their recent...

Greg Gibbs

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