Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Global Liquidity falling at fastest rate since 2007/08 Crisis</li>
<li> Over-zealous Central Banks are to blame</li>
<li> Squeeze evidenced by flat yield curves and negative ‘real’ term premia</li>
<li> In the US, the impact of reverse QE is equivalent to another ten rate hikes</li>
</ul>


Global Liquidity falling at fastest rate since 2007/08 Crisis
 Over-zealous Central Banks are to blame
 Squeeze evidenced by flat yield curves and negative ‘real’ term premia
 In the US, the impact of reverse QE is equivalent to another ten rate hikes


FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

The Fed has displayed a lack of flexibility and is generating market fears that it will make a policy mistake.  The pundits continue to applaud Powell, but the markets have delivered a thumbs down; the US yield curve has inverted from 1 to 5 years, the US equity market has had its biggest correction since the global financial crisis, market-based inflation expectations have fallen significantly, and the USD is stalling notwithstanding higher rates and global growth risks.

The Fed has displayed a lack of flexibility and is generating market fears that it will make a policy mistake.  The pundits continue to applaud Powell, but the markets have delivered a thumbs down; the US yield curve has inverted from 1 to 5 years, the US equity market has had its biggest correction since the global financial crisis, market-based inflation expectations have fallen significantly, and the USD is stalling notwithstanding higher rates and global growth risks. 

<ul>
<li>Latest US rate hike to 2.5% looks 'over-done'</li>
<li>Crashing Global Liquidity and skidding markets tell us policy is too tight</li>
<li>Evidencing the large negative print on 'real' 10-year term premia, we argue Fed Funds is already too high</li>
<li>US policy rates should fall by 100bp, since we estimate 'neutral' Fed Funds at 1.5%</li>
</ul>


Latest US rate hike to 2.5% looks 'over-done'
Crashing Global Liquidity and skidding markets tell us policy is too tight
Evidencing the large negative print on 'real' 10-year term premia, we argue Fed Funds is already too high
US policy rates should fall by 100bp, since we estimate 'neutral' Fed Funds at 1.5%


Hello The End? Why US Rates Could Fall Back to 1.5%

<ul>
<li>
Crypto-assets have plunged by over 80% this year</li>
<li>Tight Global Liquidity looks like the major culprit</li>
<li>
Crypto-assets, like gold, are highly liquidity-sensitive</li>
<li>2019 should see Global Liquidity rebound, and this may pull-up crypto-currencies?</li>
</ul>



Crypto-assets have plunged by over 80% this year
Tight Global Liquidity looks like the major culprit

Crypto-assets, like gold, are highly liquidity-sensitive
2019 should see Global Liquidity rebound, and this may pull-up crypto-currencies?


2019: The Year When Crypto-Assets Boom ... Again?

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due to a range of global risk factors. Today French budget risk and Brexit uncertainty are dragging down the GBP and EUR, despite growing political risk in the USA as Trump threatens to shut down the government over border wall funding.  Next week, US political risk and a dovish Fed may reverse gains in the USD.  The ECB meeting poses a near-term risk for the EUR if it follows the recent trend of more dovish central bank statements, although it should stick to its current policy guidance. US-China trade war fears eased on Tuesday and may help support Asian markets.

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due to a range of global risk factors. Today French budget risk and Brexit uncertainty are dragging down the GBP and EUR, despite growing political risk in the USA as Trump threatens to shut down the government over border wall funding.  Next week, US political risk and a dovish Fed may reverse gains in the USD.  The ECB meeting poses a near-term risk for the EUR if it follows the recent trend of more dovish central bank statements, although it should stick to its current policy guidance. US-China trade war fears eased on Tuesday and may help support Asian markets.

Dollar up Today, but Down Tomorrow? Fed and Govt Shut-Down Risk

United States

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The Collapse of World Central Bank Money

Global Liquidity falling at fastest rate since 2007/08 Crisis Over-zealous Central Banks are to blame Squeeze evidenced by flat yield curves and...

Michael J. Howell

The Market Gives Powell a Thumbs Down

The Fed has displayed a lack of flexibility and is generating market fears that it will make a policy mistake. The pundits continue to applaud...

Greg Gibbs

Hello The End? Why US Rates Could Fall Back to 1.5%

Latest US rate hike to 2.5% looks 'over-done' Crashing Global Liquidity and skidding markets tell us policy is too tight Evidencing the large...

Michael J. Howell

2019: The Year When Crypto-Assets Boom ... Again?

Crypto-assets have plunged by over 80% this year Tight Global Liquidity looks like the major culprit Crypto-assets, like gold, are highly...

Michael J. Howell

Dollar up Today, but Down Tomorrow? Fed and Govt Shut-Down Risk

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due...

Greg Gibbs

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