Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>The IMF's latest fiscal breakeven oil price estimates for the Middle East show Bahrain is a clear outlier. Next year's breakeven price is seen as close to USD100 per barrel; worse even than Libya. With its FX reserves slipping away and barely worth 1 month of import cover, trouble is brewing. Despite a recent USD 3bn bond issue, Bahrain still faces a fiscal hole next year and is now reportedly asking for a bailout from its closest neighbourhood friends - Saudi Arabia and the UAE. If help is not</strong>…</p></div>

The IMF's latest fiscal breakeven oil price estimates for the Middle East show Bahrain is a clear outlier. Next year's breakeven price is seen as close to USD100 per barrel; worse even than Libya. With its FX reserves slipping away and barely worth 1 month of import cover, trouble is brewing. Despite a recent USD 3bn bond issue, Bahrain still faces a fiscal hole next year and is now reportedly asking for a bailout from its closest neighbourhood friends - Saudi Arabia and the UAE. If help is not…

Chart of the Day - The Canary In The (GCC) Coalmine?

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>The latest indicators confirm that global trade is motoring ahead at its fastest clip since early 2011. If not outright booming, world trade is certainly blooming as its three fundamental drivers - the tech cycle, Chinese industrial demand and capex demand in the US and Europe -  firing in unison. With the capex upswing in G2 still accelerating and the US manufacturing sector enjoying an extraordinary late-cycle boom, China's industrial demand looks the most likely of the three to falter heading</strong>…</p></div>

The latest indicators confirm that global trade is motoring ahead at its fastest clip since early 2011. If not outright booming, world trade is certainly blooming as its three fundamental drivers - the tech cycle, Chinese industrial demand and capex demand in the US and Europe -  firing in unison. With the capex upswing in G2 still accelerating and the US manufacturing sector enjoying an extraordinary late-cycle boom, China's industrial demand looks the most likely of the three to falter heading…

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>The advance estimate of Q3 GDP confirms that the US economy continues to enjoy robust, above-trend, non-inflationary GDP growth, which is unprecedented, even extraordinary, given the relative maturity of the economic cycle.  Below are 10 'nuggets' from the Q3 report that should cover all you need to know about this key data release. </strong></p></div><p>Here are 10 key take-aways from the <a href="https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2017/pdf/gdp3q17_adv.pdf" target="_blank">BEA's advance estimate of US Q3 GDP</a>: </p><p>1) At 3% SAAR, the advance estimate was <strong>stronger than expected</strong>. Consensus estimates had…</p>

The advance estimate of Q3 GDP confirms that the US economy continues to enjoy robust, above-trend, non-inflationary GDP growth, which is unprecedented, even extraordinary, given the relative maturity of the economic cycle.  Below are 10 'nuggets' from the Q3 report that should cover all you need to know about this key data release. Here are 10 key take-aways from the BEA's advance estimate of US Q3 GDP: 1) At 3% SAAR, the advance estimate was stronger than expected. Consensus estimates had…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>Canadian house price growth has cooled abruptly in recent months from rapid growth in the first half of the year.  After broad-based economic strength in the first half of the year, recent Canadian economic reports have been mixed.  A reversal of fortunes in the housing market may contain consumer confidence and activity.  In late-September, BoC Governor Poloz said that the Bank would be more data dependent in assessing future rate hikes after two back-to-back hikes in Jul/Sep this year. The risk is shifting to a more prolonged period before Canadian rates are raised further.  NAFTA uncertainty also poses a risk for the Canadian economy.  US PPI was stronger than expected and may reflect the impact of a weaker USD this year (CPI due tomorrow).  The Fed minutes were seen as dovish, revealing FOMC concerns over low inflation.  However, upside risk for US yields may arise from the impact of Hurricane recovery on growth, wages and inflation into year end.  The Fed and the US rates market do not appear to have built-in much risk that tax reform will be enacted next year.  Warsh would seem the best fit for Fed Governor and this prospect may boost US yields.</em></p>

Canadian house price growth has cooled abruptly in recent months from rapid growth in the first half of the year.  After broad-based economic strength in the first half of the year, recent Canadian economic reports have been mixed.  A reversal of fortunes in the housing market may contain consumer confidence and activity.  In late-September, BoC Governor Poloz said that the Bank would be more data dependent in assessing future rate hikes after two back-to-back hikes in Jul/Sep this year. The risk is shifting to a more prolonged period before Canadian rates are raised further.  NAFTA uncertainty also poses a risk for the Canadian economy.  US PPI was stronger than expected and may reflect the impact of a weaker USD this year (CPI due tomorrow).  The Fed minutes were seen as dovish, revealing FOMC concerns over low inflation.  However, upside risk for US yields may arise from the impact of Hurricane recovery on growth, wages and inflation into year end.  The Fed and the US rates market do not appear to have built-in much risk that tax reform will be enacted next year.  Warsh would seem the best fit for Fed Governor and this prospect may boost US yields.

CAD Facing Risks from a Weaker Housing Market and NAFTA

<p>Not a big response in US rates and yields to the FOMC minutes, although the USD appeared to weaken somewhat.</p><p>The FOMC minutes continue to reveal a broad church with some forecasting fewer hikes, concerned by low inflation and wages growth, fearing that this is spilling into lower inflation expectations.  Others have more confidence that the tightening labor market is starting to generate higher wage growth, and concerned that financial stability risks may build if rates are not raised at least…</p>

Not a big response in US rates and yields to the FOMC minutes, although the USD appeared to weaken somewhat.The FOMC minutes continue to reveal a broad church with some forecasting fewer hikes, concerned by low inflation and wages growth, fearing that this is spilling into lower inflation expectations.  Others have more confidence that the tightening labor market is starting to generate higher wage growth, and concerned that financial stability risks may build if rates are not raised at least…

FOMC Minutes – Low Inflation Vs. Financial Stability

United States

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Chart of the Day - The Canary In The (GCC) Coalmine?

The IMF's latest fiscal breakeven oil price estimates for the Middle East show Bahrain is a clear outlier. Next year's breakeven price is seen as...

Richard Iley

Global: World Trade A Treat; No Trick!

The latest indicators confirm that global trade is motoring ahead at its fastest clip since early 2011. If not outright booming, world trade is...

Richard Iley

US: More GDP Nuggets

The advance estimate of Q3 GDP confirms that the US economy continues to enjoy robust, above-trend, non-inflationary GDP growth, which is...

Richard Iley

CAD Facing Risks from a Weaker Housing Market and NAFTA

Canadian house price growth has cooled abruptly in recent months from rapid growth in the first half of the year. After broad-based economic...

Greg Gibbs

FOMC Minutes – Low Inflation Vs. Financial Stability

Not a big response in US rates and yields to the FOMC minutes, although the USD appeared to weaken somewhat.The FOMC minutes continue to reveal a...

Greg Gibbs

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