Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

The CPB dataset has emerged in recent years as most analysts' preferred measure of world trade. However there is a less heralded, equally reliable but more timely data series that is frequently ignored. <a href="https://www.isl.org/en/news/rwi-isl-container-throughput-index-reaches-new-heights" target="_blank">The RWI/ISL container throughput index</a> is based on data continuously collected by the Institute of Shipping Economics &amp; Logistics (ISL) from 82 ports which cover around 60% of global freight container traffic.As many ports release data just a few weeks after month-end, the RWI/ISL data is…

The CPB dataset has emerged in recent years as most analysts' preferred measure of world trade. However there is a less heralded, equally reliable but more timely data series that is frequently ignored. The RWI/ISL container throughput index is based on data continuously collected by the Institute of Shipping Economics &amp; Logistics (ISL) from 82 ports which cover around 60% of global freight container traffic.As many ports release data just a few weeks after month-end, the RWI/ISL data is…

Global: Even More Bullish World Trade Data

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

USD had a reprieve so far this week after hitting new lows for the year last week.  However, EM currencies, in particular, have held most of their recent gains and retain their uptrend.  We see some risk of a correction in EUR from an over-bought condition.  After two weeks of consolidation in AUD/NZD, we see upside risks building on a weaker NZ economic performance and political risk, while stronger global growth underpins industrial metals prices and lends support for the AUD.  There is every reason to see the Australian labour data this week continuing its improving trend, while NZ housing data may again show a weaker trend.

USD had a reprieve so far this week after hitting new lows for the year last week.  However, EM currencies, in particular, have held most of their recent gains and retain their uptrend.  We see some risk of a correction in EUR from an over-bought condition.  After two weeks of consolidation in AUD/NZD, we see upside risks building on a weaker NZ economic performance and political risk, while stronger global growth underpins industrial metals prices and lends support for the AUD.  There is every reason to see the Australian labour data this week continuing its improving trend, while NZ housing data may again show a weaker trend.

USD Reprieve, but a Lot to Prove, NZD Facing Economic and Political Headwinds

<div class="content-highlight">The global economy remains healthy, even robust. That is the clear message of the latest, recently released CPB data that show world trade volumes hit a fresh all-time high in July, surpassing the previous peak reached this March. </div>After a mild contraction in the first half of 2015 driven by China's industrial hard landing, world trade stabilised and then began to spurt higher from the second half of 2016, reaching a crescendo in Q1 this year.The sharp acceleration in world trade from mid-2016…

The global economy remains healthy, even robust. That is the clear message of the latest, recently released CPB data that show world trade volumes hit a fresh all-time high in July, surpassing the previous peak reached this March. After a mild contraction in the first half of 2015 driven by China's industrial hard landing, world trade stabilised and then began to spurt higher from the second half of 2016, reaching a crescendo in Q1 this year.The sharp acceleration in world trade from mid-2016…

USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook.  The USD has clearly broken its base since 2015, leaving investors wondering where the bottom is. The sliding USD has developed a life of its own that may be hard to stop.  The ECB tried to talk down the EUR today and failed.  While the market appears to be grabbing for safe havens (gold, Treasuries, JPY), the market is not necessarily feeling bad about the global economy.  In fact, it is feeling pretty good about emerging markets.  Global economic indicators are robust, and commodity prices are rising.  A number of Asian currencies have broken steady ranges to make new highs.  The MYR and THB are both stronger along with their equity markets.

USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook.  The USD has clearly broken its base since 2015, leaving investors wondering where the bottom is. The sliding USD has developed a life of its own that may be hard to stop.  The ECB tried to talk down the EUR today and failed.  While the market appears to be grabbing for safe havens (gold, Treasuries, JPY), the market is not necessarily feeling bad about the global economy.  In fact, it is feeling pretty good about emerging markets.  Global economic indicators are robust, and commodity prices are rising.  A number of Asian currencies have broken steady ranges to make new highs.  The MYR and THB are both stronger along with their equity markets.

Populist Pandering Hurts the Dollar; Emerging Markets Powering On

While markets have focused on the slight miss in the headline number, the real message of the August labour market report was that the manufacturing sector is booming. Manufacturing payrolls jumped by a seasonally-adjusted +36k in August; their largest monthly gain in 4 years.  Moreover, the 3-month gain in manufacturing jobs is a now a punchy +83k; the strongest since 2012Q1. The BLS also provides a diffusion index for manufacturing employment which measures the breadth of jobs gains across…

While markets have focused on the slight miss in the headline number, the real message of the August labour market report was that the manufacturing sector is booming. Manufacturing payrolls jumped by a seasonally-adjusted +36k in August; their largest monthly gain in 4 years.  Moreover, the 3-month gain in manufacturing jobs is a now a punchy +83k; the strongest since 2012Q1. The BLS also provides a diffusion index for manufacturing employment which measures the breadth of jobs gains across…

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Global: Even More Bullish World Trade Data

The CPB dataset has emerged in recent years as most analysts' preferred measure of world trade. However there is a less heralded, equally reliable...

Richard Iley

USD Reprieve, but a Lot to Prove, NZD Facing Economic and Political Headwinds

USD had a reprieve so far this week after hitting new lows for the year last week. However, EM currencies, in particular, have held most of their...

Greg Gibbs

Global: World Trade Still Buoyant

The global economy remains healthy, even robust. That is the clear message of the latest, recently released CPB data that show world trade volumes...

Richard Iley

Populist Pandering Hurts the Dollar; Emerging Markets Powering On

USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook. ...

Greg Gibbs

US: Manufacturing Boom!

While markets have focused on the slight miss in the headline number, the real message of the August labour market report was that the...

Richard Iley

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