Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the reactions of CBs.</li><li>This is followed by talking about EURflation and the upcoming OPEC meeting and we then move on to talking about the Ifo numbers released last week while lastly finishing off with Dutch politics.</li><li>The Fed is the most plausible “pauser”.</li></ul>

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the reactions of CBs.This is followed by talking about EURflation and the upcoming OPEC meeting and we then move on to talking about the Ifo numbers released last week while lastly finishing off with Dutch politics.The Fed is the most plausible “pauser”.

5 Things We Watch: CBs, Eurflation, OPEC, Ifo, Dutch Politics

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>We have used the 2007 = 2023 analogy a few times already this year and we continue to find coincidental evidence that looks a lot like the emerging pressures built up in the quarters preceding the financial crisis.</li><li>The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the US and the Euro area in an aggregate model and judging from the central bank behavior, we see a lot of similarities to 2007 across the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB.</li><li>Let’s briefly explain why in this central bank watch piece! </li></ul>

We have used the 2007 = 2023 analogy a few times already this year and we continue to find coincidental evidence that looks a lot like the emerging pressures built up in the quarters preceding the financial crisis.The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the US and the Euro area in an aggregate model and judging from the central bank behavior, we see a lot of similarities to 2007 across the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB.Let’s briefly explain why in this central bank watch piece! 

G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy

<ul><li>We see clear downside risks to the consensus forecasts for November inflation in Europe due to small seasonal expectations for price cuts in various seasonally dependent cost categories.</li><li>In our preview, we will assess the scope for surprises in the core countries and on the aggregate Euro area level.</li><li>Especially German inflation looks seasonally high in the consensus forecast.</li></ul>

We see clear downside risks to the consensus forecasts for November inflation in Europe due to small seasonal expectations for price cuts in various seasonally dependent cost categories.In our preview, we will assess the scope for surprises in the core countries and on the aggregate Euro area level.Especially German inflation looks seasonally high in the consensus forecast.

EUR Inflation Watch: Another Dovish Surprise Due to Black Week/Month?

<ul><li>Our apologies for the slightly delayed Energy Cable.</li><li>IWhat a week for OPEC! Sources in OPEC+ leaked that Russia and Saudi Arabia were in agreement to delay the meeting due to issues around some other producers (which made us laugh hard given Russia’s own export numbers compared to their quotas).</li><li>We have had a look at OPEC production and export numbers and it seems like production is much more price-bullish than actual net exports (meaning a draw on local OPEC inventories).</li></ul>

Our apologies for the slightly delayed Energy Cable.IWhat a week for OPEC! Sources in OPEC+ leaked that Russia and Saudi Arabia were in agreement to delay the meeting due to issues around some other producers (which made us laugh hard given Russia’s own export numbers compared to their quotas).We have had a look at OPEC production and export numbers and it seems like production is much more price-bullish than actual net exports (meaning a draw on local OPEC inventories).

Energy Cable: The Review that Became a Preview!

<ul><li>Before we get going we have to stretch that this month’s number comes with a yuuuge caveat, namely that of the German Constitutional Court’s decision from 1 and a half weeks ago.</li><li>The court decided to block the funds intended by the German government to subsidize electricity prices for both households and companies and since the decision was taken on the 15th of this month we strongly suspect that some submissions were sent before the ruling.</li><li>That would of course mean that the companies would have had a lot more bullish outlooks before the 15th.</li></ul>

Before we get going we have to stretch that this month’s number comes with a yuuuge caveat, namely that of the German Constitutional Court’s decision from 1 and a half weeks ago.The court decided to block the funds intended by the German government to subsidize electricity prices for both households and companies and since the decision was taken on the 15th of this month we strongly suspect that some submissions were sent before the ruling.That would of course mean that the companies would have had a lot more bullish outlooks before the 15th.

Ifo Nugget: Should We Believe the Numbers?

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5 Things We Watch: CBs, Eurflation, OPEC, Ifo, Dutch Politics

We talk about EURflation and the upcoming OPEC meeting and we then move on to talking about the Ifo numbers released last week while lastly...

Steno Research

G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy

The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the...

Steno Research

EUR Inflation Watch: Another Dovish Surprise Due to Black Week/Month?

We see clear downside risks to the consensus forecasts for November inflation in Europe due to small seasonal expectations for price cuts in...

Steno Research

Energy Cable: The Review that Became a Preview!

Our apologies for the slightly delayed Energy Cable. I got caught up in the hospital with my son late yesterday, but everything is fine now! What...

Steno Research

Ifo Nugget: Should We Believe the Numbers?

Before we get going we have to stretch that this month’s number comes with a yuuuge caveat, namely that of the German Constitutional Court’s...

Steno Research

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