Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Market sentiment is data dependent, particularly on US economic data, which has been surprising to the upside</li><li>Despite some uncertainty surrounding Fed independence, the overall macro backdrop is conducive for dollar weakness</li><li>FX models are showing lack of conviction in the current environment, with carry trades in FX, including EM currencies, being a popular choice for market participants</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market sentiment is data dependent, particularly on US economic data, which has been surprising to the upsideDespite some uncertainty surrounding Fed independence, the overall macro backdrop is conducive for dollar weaknessFX models are showing lack of conviction in the current environment, with carry trades in FX, including EM currencies, being a popular choice for market participantsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Systematic signals, payrolls/ shutdown, risks to EUR/USD, AI-FX links

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.</li><li>No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.</li><li>We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.</li></ul>

Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Founder of the DeFi Report and Web3 Strategist, NATO, shares his journey, advice for innovators, and trends shaping asset tokenization, venture capital, and AI convergence.</li><li>Inflation report and Fed's monetary policy decision discussed, with core inflation increasing 3.1% year over year and market pricing in a 92% chance of a rate cut in September.</li><li>Summary of market performance, with crude falling, value rally in US equities, and Ray Dalio's recommendation to invest in non US equities in local currency.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Founder of the DeFi Report and Web3 Strategist, NATO, shares his journey, advice for innovators, and trends shaping asset tokenization, venture capital, and AI convergence.Inflation report and Fed's monetary policy decision discussed, with core inflation increasing 3.1% year over year and market pricing in a 92% chance of a rate cut in September.Summary of market performance, with crude falling, value rally in US equities, and Ray Dalio's recommendation to invest in non US equities in local currency.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

DeFi, On-Chain Truth, and the Petrodollar 2.0

<ul><li>We’re at a critical juncture in sovereign bond markets, with liquidity running razor-thin and the game changing fast.</li><li>German Bunds, traditionally rock-solid, are now trading through swaps and nearing zero on cross-currency swaps (ESTRON/SOFR) – a first in modern market history.</li><li>The takeaway? Major central banks, especially the ECB, are pressing too hard on QT, and the markets are about to hit back hard if they don’t ease up soon.</li></ul>

We’re at a critical juncture in sovereign bond markets, with liquidity running razor-thin and the game changing fast.German Bunds, traditionally rock-solid, are now trading through swaps and nearing zero on cross-currency swaps (ESTRON/SOFR) – a first in modern market history.The takeaway? Major central banks, especially the ECB, are pressing too hard on QT, and the markets are about to hit back hard if they don’t ease up soon.

Steno Signals #126: Disentangling the ECB Schnabel Speech – How Will QT Develop from Here?

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.</li><li>Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond markets, impacted by very tight liquidity.</li><li>This story has been somewhat masked by policy events in the US and Germany, but it may nonetheless be the most important narrative for Q4, which is why you need to pay attention to it.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond markets, impacted by very tight liquidity.This story has been somewhat masked by policy events in the US and Germany, but it may nonetheless be the most important narrative for Q4, which is why you need to pay attention to it.

Steno Signals #125: EUR Liquidity Overtakes USD Liquidity – A Historic Shift

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Global FX: Systematic signals, payrolls/ shutdown, risks to EUR/USD, AI-FX links

The current FX environment is data-dependent, with Fed easing already priced in and a focus on data to support further moves, leading to a lack of...

At Any Rate

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent...

Steno Research

DeFi, On-Chain Truth, and the Petrodollar 2.0

NATO, founder of DeFi Report and Web3 Strategist, will share his insights on asset tokenization, venture capital, and AI convergence, while the...

William Mann

Steno Signals #126: Disentangling the ECB Schnabel Speech – How Will QT Develop from Here?

We’re at a critical juncture in sovereign bond markets, with liquidity running razor-thin and the game changing fast. German Bunds, traditionally...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #125: EUR Liquidity Overtakes USD Liquidity – A Historic Shift

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen. Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond...

Steno Research

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