Understand How Markets Actually Work, Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Marc Rudajev

Understand How Markets Actually Work

Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Learning.Investing.Thriving. is built on a simple idea: If you want to build wealth, you need more than stock tips. You need to understand how markets actually work.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Fast Five is usually a weekly earnings snapshot.</li><li>This week we are doing something different. The most important events of the week had nothing to do with earnings and everything to do with the price of money.</li><li>Major central banks made decisions on rates and made announcements about their outlooks for the remainder of the year.</li></ul>

Fast Five is usually a weekly earnings snapshot.This week we are doing something different. The most important events of the week had nothing to do with earnings and everything to do with the price of money.Major central banks made decisions on rates and made announcements about their outlooks for the remainder of the year.

Fast Five: Special Debt Edition (Fed, BOJ, ECB, BOE)

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.</li><li>In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.</li><li>Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.</li></ul>

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha, ANTYA Investments

ANTYA Investments

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha

Investing That Empowers You

ANTYA Investments Inc., regulated by the Ontario Securities Commission, is registered to provide wealth management services in Canada. ANTYA manages institutional, and high net-worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis. Our investment philosophy embraces a Core-Satellite approach.  The core of the portfolio is chosen from a group of fifteen asset classes. A few stock specific asymmetrical investment opportunities comprise the satellite segment. ANTYA invests only in global, large capitalization, and investment grade companies.  

ANTYA expects that the FOMC will raise interest rates 4 times in 2018 and maintain that trajectory for 2019 as well. Yes, we are calling for a 3.5% federal funds rate by the end of 2019, and assuming spreads stay constant a 4.0% yield on the one-year U.S. Government Bond.Our forecast implies a stronger dollar, weaker Asian currencies, and much weaker equity markets in Asia ex-Japan over the next few years.

ANTYA expects that the FOMC will raise interest rates 4 times in 2018 and maintain that trajectory for 2019 as well. Yes, we are calling for a 3.5% federal funds rate by the end of 2019, and assuming spreads stay constant a 4.0% yield on the one-year U.S. Government Bond.Our forecast implies a stronger dollar, weaker Asian currencies, and much weaker equity markets in Asia ex-Japan over the next few years. 

Eight Hikes – 4 in 2018, and 4 in 2019 – What Does that Do to Asian Equity Markets?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>This week’s CFTC data reflect a deepening of USD bearish sentiment among investors.</li><li>Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reducing net USD longs slightly but exposure is holding close to recent levels.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

This week’s CFTC data reflect a deepening of USD bearish sentiment among investors.Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reducing net USD longs slightly but exposure is holding close to recent levels.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Grows, JPY Shorts Covered

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<ul><li>It's easy to identify breakouts because they are the most noticeable and generate a strong response.</li><li>It is precisely what happened when DXY broke below 100.53.</li><li>On the other hand, head fakes are often met with silence as hope for sustained trends persists.</li></ul>

It's easy to identify breakouts because they are the most noticeable and generate a strong response.It is precisely what happened when DXY broke below 100.53.On the other hand, head fakes are often met with silence as hope for sustained trends persists.

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Fast Five: Special Debt Edition (Fed, BOJ, ECB, BOE)

Fast Five is usually a weekly earnings snapshot. This week we are doing something different. The most important events of the week had nothing to...

Marc Rudajev

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Eight Hikes – 4 in 2018, and 4 in 2019 – What Does that Do to Asian Equity Markets?

ANTYA expects that the FOMC will raise interest rates 4 times in 2018 and maintain that trajectory for 2019 as well. Yes, we are calling for a 3.5%...

ANTYA Investments

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Grows, JPY Shorts Covered

Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.

Scotiabank

Head Fakes in Euro and DXY

It's easy to identify breakouts because they are the most noticeable and generate a strong response. It is precisely what happened when DXY broke...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)