Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.</li><li>President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges.</li><li>The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime.</li></ul>

This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges.The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime.

5 Things We Watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>We have so far seen a very contained market reaction to the electricity aid package from Germany last week, but there are loads of reasons why markets can absorb the demand-fuelling news in energy markets short-term.</li><li>Maybe there is a window of opportunity for the German industry before price pressures return?</li><li>The IFO index covering the Germany industry is likely going to improve in the coming months.</li></ul>

We have so far seen a very contained market reaction to the electricity aid package from Germany last week, but there are loads of reasons why markets can absorb the demand-fuelling news in energy markets short-term.Maybe there is a window of opportunity for the German industry before price pressures return?The IFO index covering the Germany industry is likely going to improve in the coming months.

Electricity Watch: Why Ze Germans Are OK for Now

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls</li>
<li>Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.
Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls
Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.


Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Remember the abysmal numbers seen in the US economy around the year-turn of 2022/2023 and the sharp rebound in numbers into February/March (December and January data respectively)?</li><li>Well, for those of you who have been clients of Steno Research since January, it is no surprise that these trends were driven by extreme adjustment activities in spreadsheets.</li><li>The seasonal factors in ISM Manufacturing reached record negative territory in January, but adjustments penciled in for Dec this year are clearly less extreme.</li></ul>

Remember the abysmal numbers seen in the US economy around the year-turn of 2022/2023 and the sharp rebound in numbers into February/March (December and January data respectively)?Well, for those of you who have been clients of Steno Research since January, it is no surprise that these trends were driven by extreme adjustment activities in spreadsheets.The seasonal factors in ISM Manufacturing reached record negative territory in January, but adjustments penciled in for Dec this year are clearly less extreme.

Seasonality Watch: Why a Dec hike remains in play

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.</li><li>In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

5 Things We Watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income

This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss...

Steno Research

Electricity Watch: Why Ze Germans Are OK for Now

Energy-sensitive sectors such as Chemicals, Metals and Autos will probably see improving orders to inventory ratios in a light cyclical upturn.

Steno Research

Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal; Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again; Equities still look (too) expensive on most...

Steno Research

Seasonality Watch: Why a Dec hike remains in play

Remember the abysmal numbers seen in the US economy around the year-turn of 2022/2023 and the sharp rebound in numbers into February/March...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

We anticipate consistent QT in both USDs and EURs in the forthcoming month. On a 3-month time frame, and given the assumed conditions, our model...

Steno Research

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