Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - October 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for September 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for September 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - September 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for August 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for August 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - August 2021 - Lucror Analytics

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

In my previous insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/europcar-is-again-on-the-driving-seat" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53577" rel="noopener">Europcar Is Again on the Driving Seat</a>, I recommended Long Europcar (TP €0.58, DCF based).
On 28 July, a consortium led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag-pref" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:734:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GY)</a>, together with Attestor fund and Pon Holdings transport group, entered a tender offer support agreement setting T&amp;Cs for the acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/europcar-mobility-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21457:1" rel="noopener">Europcar Mobility Group (EUCAR FP)</a>.
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The offer is €0.50/share (vs. € 0.44/share on the offer discussed in June, c. 14% higher).
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The premium compared to the prior closing is c. 3% and implies valuing the group at around €2,500 mn. Volkswagen's intention is to regain a controlling stake in Europcar (Volkswagen sold Europcar in 2006 for €3,300 mn).
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There is a potential price supplement of €0.01 if a 90% squeeze-out threshold is reached by the deal's completion.
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The Board of Europcar "favourably welcomed" the planned deal.
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This deal is highly likely to close, in my view. Gross spread (to €0.51, including the success payment) is 2.4%, c. 4.7% annualized, assuming deal closes in 6 months. Recommendation is long EUCAR FP.
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In my previous insight Europcar Is Again on the Driving Seat, I recommended Long Europcar (TP €0.58, DCF based).
On 28 July, a consortium led by Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GY), together with Attestor fund and Pon Holdings transport group, entered a tender offer support agreement setting T&amp;Cs for the acquisition of Europcar Mobility Group (EUCAR FP).


The offer is €0.50/share (vs. € 0.44/share on the offer discussed in June, c. 14% higher).


The premium compared to the prior closing is c. 3% and implies valuing the group at around €2,500 mn. Volkswagen's intention is to regain a controlling stake in Europcar (Volkswagen sold Europcar in 2006 for €3,300 mn).


There is a potential price supplement of €0.01 if a 90% squeeze-out threshold is reached by the deal's completion.


The Board of Europcar "favourably welcomed" the planned deal.



This deal is highly likely to close, in my view. Gross spread (to €0.51, including the success payment) is 2.4%, c. 4.7% annualized, assuming deal closes in 6 months. Recommendation is long EUCAR FP.


The Europe HY Trade Book for July 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for July 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - July 2021 - Lucror Analytics

France

Europcar Mobility Group provides passenger mobility vehicles rental services. The Company offers light commercial vehicles rental and sharing, ride hailing, and other mobility solutions. Europcar Mobility Group serves customers globally.

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Europcar Mobility Group (EUCAR FP)

Europe HY Trade Book - October 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - September 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for September 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - August 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for August 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

VW Consortium/Europcar: Spread

This deal is highly likely to close, in my view. Gross spread (to €0.51, including the success payment) is 2.4%, c. 4.7% annualized, assuming deal...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Europe HY Trade Book - July 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for July 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

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