Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. </li>
<li>We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. 
We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?


Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for SP 500, SP MidCap400, and SP SmallCap600 indices for the September 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 4 September 2026.</li>
<li>There are 3 ADD/DELs for the SP 500, all of which will also be added to and deleted from the SP 500 Equal Weight and their corresponding Select Sector indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes. </li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for SP 500, SP MidCap400, and SP SmallCap600 indices for the September 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 4 September 2026.
There are 3 ADD/DELs for the SP 500, all of which will also be added to and deleted from the SP 500 Equal Weight and their corresponding Select Sector indices.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes. 


Quiddity SP 500 Sep26 Results: Over US$31bn One Way Flow

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marvell-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15837:1" rel="noopener">Marvell Technology (MRVL US)</a> became eligible at the last minute for S&amp;P500 inclusion in the December 2025 review, following positive Q3 earnings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marvell-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15837:1" rel="noopener">Marvell Technology (MRVL US)</a> experienced a significant turnaround in profitability in the last year, but its latest earnings are driven by non-operational activity.</li>
<li>The company's market cap and other eligibility metrics are estimated to place it among the top addition candidates for S&amp;P500 with a higher chance of inclusion in 2026.</li>
</ul>



Marvell Technology (MRVL US) became eligible at the last minute for S&amp;P500 inclusion in the December 2025 review, following positive Q3 earnings.

Marvell Technology (MRVL US) experienced a significant turnaround in profitability in the last year, but its latest earnings are driven by non-operational activity.
The company's market cap and other eligibility metrics are estimated to place it among the top addition candidates for S&amp;P500 with a higher chance of inclusion in 2026.


Marvell Technology (MRVL US): Heroic Earnings Unlock S&P500 Eligibility

<ul><li>The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li><li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li><li>The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the open of 3rd December 2025 and announced after the close of 5th December 2025.</li></ul>

The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the open of 3rd December 2025 and announced after the close of 5th December 2025.

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Last Minute Surprise in The Leading Names

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfort-systems-usa-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6730:1" rel="noopener">Comfort Systems USA (FIX US)</a> are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pure-storage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27421:1" rel="noopener">Pure Storage Inc (PSTG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solstice-advanced-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45953:1" rel="noopener">Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS US)</a> face reduced conviction due to sector balance and turnover.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertiv-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33140:1" rel="noopener">Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US)</a> has a higher probability of inclusion following the acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kellogg-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16090:1" rel="noopener">Kellogg Co (K US)</a> which is still pending.</li>
</ul>



CRH (CRH US) and Comfort Systems USA (FIX US) are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.

Pure Storage Inc (PSTG US) and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS US) face reduced conviction due to sector balance and turnover.

Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US) has a higher probability of inclusion following the acquisition of Kellogg Co (K US) which is still pending.


S&P500 December 2025 Final Forecast: FIX & CRH Leading the Pack

United States

Everpure, Inc. provides enterprise storage solutions. The Company offers flash enterprise arrays for workloads including server consolidation, virtualization desktop, database, and cloud computing. Everpure serves automotive, education, health care, financial services, retail, and telecom sectors in the United States.

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Everpure (P US)

Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Downgrading Staples $XLP to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading While Prior Leaders Consolidate; $SMH Above $280, 10-yr Treasury yield below key...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity SP 500 Sep26 Results: Over US$31bn One Way Flow

Three ADDs and three DELs for the SP 500 in Sep 2026, driving over ~US$31bn of one-way flow across the SP 500, the Select Sector indices and the SP...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Marvell Technology (MRVL US): Heroic Earnings Unlock S&P500 Eligibility

MRVL is labelled bullish for index rebalance but bearish in fundamentals following the fourth consecutive positive earnings and high price-to...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Last Minute Surprise in The Leading Names

SP500 rankings will be decided at today's open and announced on 5 December after the close. We see $100bn to trade across the SP500 complex. Kalshi...

Anjana Amarasuriya

S&P500 December 2025 Final Forecast: FIX & CRH Leading the Pack

CRH and FIX are top candidates for addition in December 2025, while PSTG and SOLS face reduced conviction. VRT has a higher chance of inclusion...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Downgrading Staples $XLP to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading While Prior Leaders Consolidate; $SMH Above $280, 10-yr Treasury yield below key...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity SP 500 Sep26 Results: Over US$31bn One Way Flow

Three ADDs and three DELs for the SP 500 in Sep 2026, driving over ~US$31bn of one-way flow across the SP 500, the Select Sector indices and the SP...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Marvell Technology (MRVL US): Heroic Earnings Unlock S&P500 Eligibility

MRVL is labelled bullish for index rebalance but bearish in fundamentals following the fourth consecutive positive earnings and high price-to...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Last Minute Surprise in The Leading Names

SP500 rankings will be decided at today's open and announced on 5 December after the close. We see $100bn to trade across the SP500 complex. Kalshi...

Anjana Amarasuriya

S&P500 December 2025 Final Forecast: FIX & CRH Leading the Pack

​CRH and FIX are top candidates for addition in December 2025, while PSTG and SOLS face reduced conviction. VRT has a higher chance of inclusion...

Dimitris Ioannidis

CRH and FIX are top candidates for addition in December 2025, while PSTG and SOLS face reduced conviction. VRT has a higher chance of inclusion...