European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tata Motors Raises Its Iveco Offer to €14.40 Per Share, Declaring It Best and Final. Iveco's Board Supports the Increase Ahead of the 16 October EGM.</li>
<li>At €14.355, the Remaining 0.31% Gross Spread Annualises to 6.73%, Assuming Payment on 30 October. The Acceptance Threshold Remains Subject to Shareholder Approval.</li>
<li>Completion Risk Remains Low, but the Absolute Upside Is Insufficient. We Would Not Initiate at Current Levels and Retain Our Neutral View, Raising Our Target to €14.40.</li>
</ul>


Tata Motors Raises Its Iveco Offer to €14.40 Per Share, Declaring It Best and Final. Iveco's Board Supports the Increase Ahead of the 16 October EGM.
At €14.355, the Remaining 0.31% Gross Spread Annualises to 6.73%, Assuming Payment on 30 October. The Acceptance Threshold Remains Subject to Shareholder Approval.
Completion Risk Remains Low, but the Absolute Upside Is Insufficient. We Would Not Initiate at Current Levels and Retain Our Neutral View, Raising Our Target to €14.40.


Tata Motors / Iveco: One Last Gear Change

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>Exor is a diversified investment holding company controlled by the Agnelli family, offering exposure to a portfolio of high-quality, global companies, most notably Ferrari and Stellantis.</li>
 <li>The company consistently trades at a significant discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV), which presents a potential value opportunity for long-term investors. Recent estimates place this discount between 52% and 62%.</li>
 <li>Management's strategy is focused on long-term value creation through active capital allocation, which includes diversifying the portfolio into sectors like healthcare and technology, and returning capital to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  Exor is a diversified investment holding company controlled by the Agnelli family, offering exposure to a portfolio of high-quality, global companies, most notably Ferrari and Stellantis.
  The company consistently trades at a significant discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV), which presents a potential value opportunity for long-term investors. Recent estimates place this discount between 52% and 62%.
  Management's strategy is focused on long-term value creation through active capital allocation, which includes diversifying the portfolio into sectors like healthcare and technology, and returning capital to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.</li>
<li>We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.</li>
<li>Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications</li>
</ul>


We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.
We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.
Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications


MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.<ul type="disc">
<li>
Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.</li>
<li>
Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.</li>
</ul>

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.

Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.

Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.


Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Netherlands

EXOR N.V. is a diversified holding company. The Company brings in finance for the development of its companies, to improve their competitive position and profitability, and maintains a constant dialogue with the top management of the companies in which it invests, while fully respecting their operating autonomy.

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EXOR NV (EXO NA)

Tata Motors / Iveco: One Last Gear Change

Tata has raised its Iveco offer to a best-and-final €14.40. With the EGM approaching and settlement scheduled for October, we assess the remaining...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Primer: EXOR NV (EXO NA) - Apr 2026

Exor is a diversified investment holding company controlled by the Agnelli family, offering exposure to a portfolio of high-quality, global...

αSK Primers

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs. Financials are attractive globally, ranging...

Vermilion Research

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