Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Down 66% from its 2021 IPO price, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/full-truck-alliance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33429:1" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance (YMM US)</a> has been a loser for investors, though we would argue its underlying performance on fundamentals has been mixed</li>
<li>We believe FTA's narrow focus on expanding its lead in China's spot, inter-city FTL trucking market blinds management to the broader role it must pursue to ensure long-term growth</li>
<li>FTA should aggressively funnel users into its Transaction Commission segment and invest in building a Transportation Management Software offering to attract and retain customers</li>
</ul>


Down 66% from its 2021 IPO price, Full Truck Alliance (YMM US) has been a loser for investors, though we would argue its underlying performance on fundamentals has been mixed
We believe FTA's narrow focus on expanding its lead in China's spot, inter-city FTL trucking market blinds management to the broader role it must pursue to ensure long-term growth
FTA should aggressively funnel users into its Transaction Commission segment and invest in building a Transportation Management Software offering to attract and retain customers


Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While adjusted net profit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK)</a> plummeted in 4Q22, the positive momentum in 1Q23 as revealed supports a sharp recovery in FY23.</li>
<li>Its huge exposure to lower-tier cities will fuel outlook while increase in monetisation will support profitability rebound. Success at Blackwhale membership program is another growth engine.  </li>
<li>Management is confident that revenue growth and better efficiency will lead the return of FY23 margin to pre-pandemic levels. Net cash position (12% of share price) is an added strength. </li>
</ul>


While adjusted net profit of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK) plummeted in 4Q22, the positive momentum in 1Q23 as revealed supports a sharp recovery in FY23.
Its huge exposure to lower-tier cities will fuel outlook while increase in monetisation will support profitability rebound. Success at Blackwhale membership program is another growth engine.  
Management is confident that revenue growth and better efficiency will lead the return of FY23 margin to pre-pandemic levels. Net cash position (12% of share price) is an added strength. 


Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Best for Capturing Lower-Tier Cities' Growth

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 21 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webjet-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45177:1" rel="noopener">Webjet Group (WJL AU)</a> disclosed a non-binding takeover offer from BGH Capital at A$0.91 per share, a 1.1% premium to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helloworld-travel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16134:1" rel="noopener">Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU)</a> offer.</li>
<li>BGH’s takeover offer is conditional on a 75% minimum acceptance condition, which is too high a threshold to meet. The acceptance condition is likely to be revised to 50.1%.     </li>
<li>Helloworld has justification to engage in a bidding war, particularly due to potential synergies and multiple re-rating. I would expect at least another round of bids. </li>
</ul>


On 21 November, Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding takeover offer from BGH Capital at A$0.91 per share, a 1.1% premium to the Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) offer.
BGH’s takeover offer is conditional on a 75% minimum acceptance condition, which is too high a threshold to meet. The acceptance condition is likely to be revised to 50.1%.     
Helloworld has justification to engage in a bidding war, particularly due to potential synergies and multiple re-rating. I would expect at least another round of bids. 


Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Capital Counters Helloworld with a Competing Proposal

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Klook Technology Limited, a SoftBank-backed Asia’s leading platform for experiences and travel activities, filed for an IPO in the United States.</li>
<li>The company became a unicorn in 2018 and was valued at $1B+ in 2025. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley are the lead bankers on the upcoming offering.</li>
<li>As of the end of Sep-25, Klook platform served 10.7M+ annual transacting users, spanning 200+ geographic markets worldwide. Since its launch, the mobile app has been downloaded ~70M times.</li>
</ul>


Klook Technology Limited, a SoftBank-backed Asia’s leading platform for experiences and travel activities, filed for an IPO in the United States.
The company became a unicorn in 2018 and was valued at $1B+ in 2025. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley are the lead bankers on the upcoming offering.
As of the end of Sep-25, Klook platform served 10.7M+ annual transacting users, spanning 200+ geographic markets worldwide. Since its launch, the mobile app has been downloaded ~70M times.


Klook IPO Preview: Category Leader in APAC and Gateway for Asia’s Fast-Growing Experiences Economy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webjet-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45177:1" rel="noopener">Webjet Group (WJL AU)</a> disclosed a non-binding scheme offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helloworld-travel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16134:1" rel="noopener">Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU)</a> at A$0.90 per share, a 12.5% premium to the rejected BGH/Weiss offer of A$0.80.</li>
<li>The Board has granted due diligence. The offer is unattractive compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges.    </li>
<li>The scheme offer is a non-starter and likely to morph into a PointsBet-type situation. Therefore, the potential result is conditional takeover bids from BGH/Weiss and Helloworld.</li>
</ul>



Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding scheme offer from Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) at A$0.90 per share, a 12.5% premium to the rejected BGH/Weiss offer of A$0.80.
The Board has granted due diligence. The offer is unattractive compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges.    
The scheme offer is a non-starter and likely to morph into a PointsBet-type situation. Therefore, the potential result is conditional takeover bids from BGH/Weiss and Helloworld.


Webjet Group (WJL AU): Helloworld’s Scheme Offer Likely to Morph into Competing Takeover Offers

United States

Expedia Group, Inc. provides branded online travel services for leisure and small business travelers. The Company offers a wide range of travel shopping and reservation services, providing real-time access to schedule, pricing and availability information for airlines, hotels, and car rental companies.

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Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE US)

Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

FTA's shares are down 66% vs their IPO price, but underlying performance has been mixed. To ensure long-term growth, FTA should follow our two-part...

Tracking Traffic

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Best for Capturing Lower-Tier Cities' Growth

Positive business momentum in 1Q23 supports a sharp recovery in FY23. Huge exposure to lower-tier cities and increase in monetisation will support...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Capital Counters Helloworld with a Competing Proposal

Helloworld has justification to engage in a bidding war, particularly due to potential synergies and multiple re-rating. I would expect at least...

Arun George

Klook IPO Preview: Category Leader in APAC and Gateway for Asia’s Fast-Growing Experiences Economy

Asia's leading platform for experiences and travel services, Klook, backed by SoftBank, filed to go public. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan...

Andrei Zakharov

Webjet Group (WJL AU): Helloworld’s Scheme Offer Likely to Morph into Competing Takeover Offers

The scheme offer is a non-starter and likely to morph into a PointsBet-type situation. Therefore, the potential result is conditional takeover bids...

Arun George

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52-week Range

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Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

FTA's shares are down 66% vs their IPO price, but underlying performance has been mixed. To ensure long-term growth, FTA should follow our two-part...

Tracking Traffic

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Best for Capturing Lower-Tier Cities' Growth

Positive business momentum in 1Q23 supports a sharp recovery in FY23. Huge exposure to lower-tier cities and increase in monetisation will support...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Capital Counters Helloworld with a Competing Proposal

Helloworld has justification to engage in a bidding war, particularly due to potential synergies and multiple re-rating. I would expect at least...

Arun George

Klook IPO Preview: Category Leader in APAC and Gateway for Asia’s Fast-Growing Experiences Economy

​Asia's leading platform for experiences and travel services, Klook, backed by SoftBank, filed to go public. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan...

Andrei Zakharov

Webjet Group (WJL AU): Helloworld’s Scheme Offer Likely to Morph into Competing Takeover Offers

The scheme offer is a non-starter and likely to morph into a PointsBet-type situation. Therefore, the potential result is conditional takeover bids...

Arun George

Asia's leading platform for experiences and travel services, Klook, backed by SoftBank, filed to go public. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan...