Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>UAE’s imported Group I SN 500 price extends rise relative to prices in Europe and Asia in H1 Sept 2025.</li><li>UAE SN 500 price-strength reflects tight availability of Group I heavy neutrals in Middle East market.</li><li>Tight availability contrasts with improving or surplus availability of Group I heavy neutrals in Asia and Europe.</li></ul>

UAE’s imported Group I SN 500 price extends rise relative to prices in Europe and Asia in H1 Sept 2025.UAE SN 500 price-strength reflects tight availability of Group I heavy neutrals in Middle East market.Tight availability contrasts with improving or surplus availability of Group I heavy neutrals in Asia and Europe.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 15 September

<ul><li>US base oils prices hold firm in narrow range versus vacuum gasoil prices.</li><li>Still-firm margins curb pressure on refiners to adjust output.</li><li>Moves to maintain steady-to-high output would help to cushion impact of planned plant-maintenance work in coming weeks.</li></ul>

US base oils prices hold firm in narrow range versus vacuum gasoil prices.Still-firm margins curb pressure on refiners to adjust output.Moves to maintain steady-to-high output would help to cushion impact of planned plant-maintenance work in coming weeks.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 15 September

<ul><li>US base oils demand likely to stay muted.</li><li>Expectations of sufficient supplies, downward-pressure on prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at year-end incentivize buyers to trim stocks.</li><li>Outright demand likely to stay weak even as recent fire at major blending plant triggers shift in consumption to other blenders, boosting their base oils requirements.</li></ul>

US base oils demand likely to stay muted.Expectations of sufficient supplies, downward-pressure on prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at year-end incentivize buyers to trim stocks.Outright demand likely to stay weak even as recent fire at major blending plant triggers shift in consumption to other blenders, boosting their base oils requirements.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 September

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trade-desk-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26467:1" rel="noopener">Trade Desk (TTD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft (MSFT US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron (CVX)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.
The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US). 
The largest flows are expected in AppLovin (APP), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Trade Desk (TTD), NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT US), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

<ul><li>Global base oils prices mostly fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Price-differentials fall more steeply in Europe and US than in Asia, pointing to weaker supply-demand fundamentals in those markets.</li><li>Even with lower differentials, global base oils margins hold at levels that incentivize refiners to maintain firm output.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices mostly fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.Price-differentials fall more steeply in Europe and US than in Asia, pointing to weaker supply-demand fundamentals in those markets.Even with lower differentials, global base oils margins hold at levels that incentivize refiners to maintain firm output.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 8 September

United States

Exxon Mobil Corporation operates petroleum and petrochemicals businesses on a worldwide basis.  The Company's operations include exploration and production of oil and gas, electric power generation, and coal and minerals operations. Exxon Mobil also manufactures and markets fuels, lubricants, and chemicals.

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Exxon Mobil (XOM US)

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 15 September

UAE’s imported Group I SN 500 price extends rise relative to prices in Europe and Asia in H1 Sept 2025. UAE SN 500 price-strength reflects tight...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 15 September

US base oils prices hold firm in narrow range versus vacuum gasoil prices. Still-firm margins curb pressure on refiners to adjust output. Moves to...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 September

US base oils demand likely to stay muted. Expectations of sufficient supplies, downward-pressure on prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at...

Base Oil News

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 8 September

Global base oils prices mostly fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices. Price-differentials fall more steeply in Europe and US than in Asia,...

Base Oil News

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