Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>US markets gyrated wildly beneath the surface in July and we recently found out a key reason why; a young, inexperienced and wildly over-leveraged trader from the West coast was in the process of being ‘taken out’ by the seasoned hunting dogs of Wall St.</li><li>What we saw as software stocks surged and plunged while hardware stocks followed was the killing process.</li><li>However, we see this as part of a much bigger turf war over who gets to create money. </li></ul>

US markets gyrated wildly beneath the surface in July and we recently found out a key reason why; a young, inexperienced and wildly over-leveraged trader from the West coast was in the process of being ‘taken out’ by the seasoned hunting dogs of Wall St.What we saw as software stocks surged and plunged while hardware stocks followed was the killing process.However, we see this as part of a much bigger turf war over who gets to create money. 

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Admittedly, I was confused looking at the initial reaction of Meta’s earnings when the stock went down. Mr. Market promptly corrected its “mistake” later.</li><li>One of the reasons I think some may have reacted negatively is the ever burgeoning capex outlook by Meta which inevitably exerts pressure on FCF.</li><li>I suspect a good fraction of investor base has a very mechanical understanding of FCF i.e. they understand that more FCF is better, but what many seem to find relatively harder to internalize is if a company has rich reinvestment opportunity, the optimal FCF should be as low as possible, especially if you have a strong balance sheet.</li></ul>

Admittedly, I was confused looking at the initial reaction of Meta’s earnings when the stock went down. Mr. Market promptly corrected its “mistake” later.One of the reasons I think some may have reacted negatively is the ever burgeoning capex outlook by Meta which inevitably exerts pressure on FCF.I suspect a good fraction of investor base has a very mechanical understanding of FCF i.e. they understand that more FCF is better, but what many seem to find relatively harder to internalize is if a company has rich reinvestment opportunity, the optimal FCF should be as low as possible, especially if you have a strong balance sheet.

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly, The Physical Layer

The Physical Layer

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly

A journal on the physical constraints behind the AI buildout: power, grid connection, data centres, cooling and the supply chains that gate them. Written to be understood by anyone.

<ul><li>Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors.</li><li>It also designs the custom AI chips that Google, Meta, OpenAI and others are building to rely less on Nvidia.</li><li>So whichever way the biggest buyers turn, the work runs through Broadcom, and the risk sits with a handful of very powerful customers.</li></ul>

Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors.It also designs the custom AI chips that Google, Meta, OpenAI and others are building to rely less on Nvidia.So whichever way the biggest buyers turn, the work runs through Broadcom, and the risk sits with a handful of very powerful customers.

Broadcom is paid whether the cloud giants stay with Nvidia or leave

Writing about Companies with an Unfair Advantage, Unfair Advantage

Unfair Advantage

Writing about Companies with an Unfair Advantage

I write about companies that have an unfair advantage. I might invest in them as well.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Much has been written these days on the bloating AI capex spends across the tech majors.</li><li>A JP Morgan report said we need to create a stratospheric revenue number of $650B to justify a 10% IRR, given current AI capex levels.</li><li>Yet everyone agrees AI is a fundamental shift that is redefining business models across industries.</li></ul>

Much has been written these days on the bloating AI capex spends across the tech majors.A JP Morgan report said we need to create a stratospheric revenue number of $650B to justify a 10% IRR, given current AI capex levels.Yet everyone agrees AI is a fundamental shift that is redefining business models across industries.

<ul><li>Almost one and half years ago, I wrote about “The Curious Case of Big Tech”, in which I highlighted that much of the big tech was actually “deep value” investments back in 2013.</li><li>In fact, I also mentioned “Meta, and Amazon are currently trading at lower OCF multiple than they were trading back in 2013”.</li><li>Both Meta and Amazon have comfortably outperformed both S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 since then (not claiming any causal relationship, of course).</li></ul>

Almost one and half years ago, I wrote about “The Curious Case of Big Tech”, in which I highlighted that much of the big tech was actually “deep value” investments back in 2013.In fact, I also mentioned “Meta, and Amazon are currently trading at lower OCF multiple than they were trading back in 2013”.Both Meta and Amazon have comfortably outperformed both S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 since then (not claiming any causal relationship, of course).

Big Tech's Deteriorating Earnings Quality

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

Crashenbrenner

US markets gyrated wildly beneath the surface in July and we recently found out a key reason why; a young, inexperienced and wildly over-leveraged...

Mark Tinker

Meta 4Q'25 Update

Admittedly, I was confused looking at the initial reaction of Meta’s earnings when the stock went down. Mr. Market promptly corrected its “mistake”...

MBI Deep Dives

Broadcom is paid whether the cloud giants stay with Nvidia or leave

Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors. It also designs the custom...

The Physical Layer

Investor's guide to AI Capex

Much has been written these days on the bloating AI capex spends across the tech majors. A JP Morgan report said we need to create a stratospheric...

Unfair Advantage

Big Tech's Deteriorating Earnings Quality

Almost one and half years ago, I wrote about “The Curious Case of Big Tech”, in which I highlighted that much of the big tech was actually “deep...

MBI Deep Dives

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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