Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Fear of obsolescence driven by new AI apps caused a near U.S. $300bn collapse in software and financial services, but for users, nothing changed.</li>
<li>Claude’s demo model looked clever but was slow, shallow, and easily replicable with free data—failing real analyst needs for depth, speed, and insight.</li>
<li>FactSet’s APIs enable fast, complex, customizable models that AI tools cannot yet match in speed, reliability, scale, or workflow integration.</li>
</ul>


Fear of obsolescence driven by new AI apps caused a near U.S. $300bn collapse in software and financial services, but for users, nothing changed.
Claude’s demo model looked clever but was slow, shallow, and easily replicable with free data—failing real analyst needs for depth, speed, and insight.
FactSet’s APIs enable fast, complex, customizable models that AI tools cannot yet match in speed, reliability, scale, or workflow integration.


FactSet (FDS-US) And the 2026 Near Death Experience of Data Vendors

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>KTX anticipates the SET Index to maintain a sideways trajectory in May, with the support at 1,350/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,385/1,405 points.</li><li>We recommend speculating on stocks benefiting from the depreciation of the baht (exports and tourism sectors) and stocks related to government policies (construction services and construction materials sectors).</li><li>We anticipate positive indicators from the growth of both the Thai and Japanese economies, which are poised to strengthen throughout the remainder of the year, fueled by signs of global economic recovery.</li></ul>

KTX anticipates the SET Index to maintain a sideways trajectory in May, with the support at 1,350/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,385/1,405 points.We recommend speculating on stocks benefiting from the depreciation of the baht (exports and tourism sectors) and stocks related to government policies (construction services and construction materials sectors).We anticipate positive indicators from the growth of both the Thai and Japanese economies, which are poised to strengthen throughout the remainder of the year, fueled by signs of global economic recovery.

Monthly Report: May 2024: Sideways Movement, With the Support at 1,350/1,330 Points and the Resistance at 1,385/1,405 Points

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,432/1,440 points (10-day EMA) and the support at 1,413/1,400 points.</li><li>China's 1Y and 5Y loan prime rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2%, respectively.</li><li>We recommend stocks expected to report 3Q23E earnings growth YoY: ERW, SPRC and ILM.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,432/1,440 points (10-day EMA) and the support at 1,413/1,400 points.China's 1Y and 5Y loan prime rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2%, respectively.We recommend stocks expected to report 3Q23E earnings growth YoY: ERW, SPRC and ILM.

<ul><li>According to the Global Fund Manager Survey of 289 fund managers with NAV of USD753bn by Bank of America during May 5-11, most remained concerned about US economic growth, with 47% expecting a recession.</li><li>Hence, investors continue to focus on holding cash and bonds rather than equities (and are rotating to technology, EU assets & equities instead of commodities, utilities, and EM and US assets).</li><li>We recommend that investors underweight reopening stocks as tourist arrivals may enter the slow-growth mode and overweight the banking and export sectors (given the higher GDP growth prospects), as well as the finance and real estate sectors (as bond yields are moving on a downtrend), due to the likelihood that Thai economic growth will accelerate, with the BoT projecting 2023-24E GDP growth at 3.6% YoY and 3.8% YoY, respectively.</li></ul>

According to the Global Fund Manager Survey of 289 fund managers with NAV of USD753bn by Bank of America during May 5-11, most remained concerned about US economic growth, with 47% expecting a recession.Hence, investors continue to focus on holding cash and bonds rather than equities (and are rotating to technology, EU assets & equities instead of commodities, utilities, and EM and US assets).We recommend that investors underweight reopening stocks as tourist arrivals may enter the slow-growth mode and overweight the banking and export sectors (given the higher GDP growth prospects), as well as the finance and real estate sectors (as bond yields are moving on a downtrend), due to the likelihood that Thai economic growth will accelerate, with the BoT projecting 2023-24E GDP growth at 3.6% YoY and 3.8% YoY, respectively.

Still Pessimistic on US Economic Outlook (Raised Cash & Bond Holdings and Reduced Equities)

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds, Fund Newsletters

Fund Newsletters

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds

<ul>
<li>Baron is an asset management firm focused on delivering growth equity investment solutions known for long-term, fundamental, active approach to growth investing.</li>
<li>We expect additional, substantial appreciation for Tesla and SpaceX.</li>
<li>84.3% of our assets are NOT invested in Tesla and SpaceX, but rather are invested in other exceptionally attractive growth companies.</li>
<li>We have always believed that any recessions or declines in the value of our growth business holdings would not be long-lasting.</li>
<li>Think long term about everything, guard your reputation zealously, make sure your balance sheet is as close to impregnable as possible.</li>
</ul>


Baron is an asset management firm focused on delivering growth equity investment solutions known for long-term, fundamental, active approach to growth investing.
We expect additional, substantial appreciation for Tesla and SpaceX.
84.3% of our assets are NOT invested in Tesla and SpaceX, but rather are invested in other exceptionally attractive growth companies.
We have always believed that any recessions or declines in the value of our growth business holdings would not be long-lasting.
Think long term about everything, guard your reputation zealously, make sure your balance sheet is as close to impregnable as possible.


Baron Funds Q3 2022 Report - Letter From Ron

United States

FactSet Research Systems Inc. supplies global economic and financial data to analysts, investment bankers, and other financial professionals.  The Company combines databases from multiple suppliers into a single online source of information and analytics, including fundamental data.

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Factset Research Systems Inc (FDS US)

FactSet (FDS-US) And the 2026 Near Death Experience of Data Vendors

Fear of obsolescence from new AI apps led to a $300bn collapse in software and financial services, but Claude's model can't match FactSet's APIs...

Michael Allen

Monthly Report: May 2024: Sideways Movement, With the Support at 1,350/1,330 Points and the Resistance at 1,385/1,405 Points

KTX anticipates the SET Index to maintain a sideways trajectory in May, with the support at 1,350/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,385/1,405...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,432/1,440 points (10-day EMA) and the support at 1,413/1,400...

Krungthai XSpring

Still Pessimistic on US Economic Outlook (Raised Cash & Bond Holdings and Reduced Equities)

According to the Global Fund Manager Survey of 289 fund managers with NAV of USD753bn by Bank of America during May 5-11, most remained concerned...

Krungthai XSpring

Baron Funds Q3 2022 Report - Letter From Ron

Baron is an asset management firm focused on delivering growth equity investment solutions known for long-term, fundamental, active approach to...

Fund Newsletters

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

FactSet (FDS-US) And the 2026 Near Death Experience of Data Vendors

​Fear of obsolescence from new AI apps led to a $300bn collapse in software and financial services, but Claude's model can't match FactSet's APIs...

Michael Allen

Monthly Report: May 2024: Sideways Movement, With the Support at 1,350/1,330 Points and the Resistance at 1,385/1,405 Points

KTX anticipates the SET Index to maintain a sideways trajectory in May, with the support at 1,350/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,385/1,405...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,432/1,440 points (10-day EMA) and the support at 1,413/1,400...

Krungthai XSpring

Still Pessimistic on US Economic Outlook (Raised Cash & Bond Holdings and Reduced Equities)

According to the Global Fund Manager Survey of 289 fund managers with NAV of USD753bn by Bank of America during May 5-11, most remained concerned...

Krungthai XSpring

Baron Funds Q3 2022 Report - Letter From Ron

Baron is an asset management firm focused on delivering growth equity investment solutions known for long-term, fundamental, active approach to...

Fund Newsletters

Fear of obsolescence from new AI apps led to a $300bn collapse in software and financial services, but Claude's model can't match FactSet's APIs...