Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

In January and February we saw a large wave of TSE1 Section Transfers as many small cap names rushed to get promoted before the new (and more stringent) Section Transfer Requirements were implemented. In contrast, not a single TSE1 Section Transfer was announced in the month of March 2021. 
However, this is only the calm before the storm.
In April 2021, we are expecting dozens of companies to enjoy TOPIX Index upweights as a result of the annual liquidity factor review (and this will mean dozens of downweights too). On the other hand, although fewer companies will qualify under the new rules, small-cap companies could use M&amp;A as an alternative route to Section Transfers to meet criteria as discussed below in this insight.
Furthermore, I have discussed the changes to Quiddity's pre-events watchlist and provided performance updates for one "Live" event stock which is expected to have its Inclusion event at the end of April 2021 and 9 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of January 2021 and February 2021.

In January and February we saw a large wave of TSE1 Section Transfers as many small cap names rushed to get promoted before the new (and more stringent) Section Transfer Requirements were implemented. In contrast, not a single TSE1 Section Transfer was announced in the month of March 2021. 
However, this is only the calm before the storm.
In April 2021, we are expecting dozens of companies to enjoy TOPIX Index upweights as a result of the annual liquidity factor review (and this will mean dozens of downweights too). On the other hand, although fewer companies will qualify under the new rules, small-cap companies could use M&amp;A as an alternative route to Section Transfers to meet criteria as discussed below in this insight.
Furthermore, I have discussed the changes to Quiddity's pre-events watchlist and provided performance updates for one "Live" event stock which is expected to have its Inclusion event at the end of April 2021 and 9 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of January 2021 and February 2021. 

It was shaping up to be a decent TOPIX Inclusion."And Then The Murders Began."*I first identified <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/faithnetwork-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29132:1" rel="noopener">FaithNetwork Co Ltd (3489 JP)</a> as a potential TSE1 candidate in my insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-pre-events-recent-tachiaigai-bunbai-round-up" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40509" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Recent "Tachiaigai Bunbai" Round-Up</a> in June 2020. The company had explicitly stated they were working towards a TSE1 move when they launched a <a href="https://www2.tse.or.jp/disc/34890/140120200616445521.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tachiaigai bunbai offering on 16th June 2020</a>. The price was ¥1092 at the time. However, I did not ask investors to buy this name at that time given the uncertain timeline. That was the only offering in the previous 12 months.However, considering the new section transfer requirements I changed my view on this stock to an explicit buy recommendation on 29th September 2020 as explained in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-trade-summary-sep-2020" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43700" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: Sep 2020</a>. The stock was ¥1190 by then. From that point to early February, the share price gained +23.5% (despite having dipped to the ¥1050-60s level in the interim) with majority of this gain coming in the last 5 trading days prior to my latest insight on February 7, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-faithnetwork-3489-jp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47840" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion: FaithNetwork (3489 JP)</a> which came when the company announced its ascension to TSE1.Despite that recent jump, the share price is still 40+% below its IPO Price of ¥2,500 roughly three years ago and I identified the event as a "Small Size Large Impact" (PURPLE) category TOPIX Inclusion in the Quiddity framework so was bullish.Yesterday afternoon we got new news which puts all this in doubt. More below the fold.<hr>* "And Then The Murders Began" is a twitter meme which suggests...<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/328/original/Screenshot+2021-03-18+at+7.37.05+PM.png?1616068887" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195328"></figure></section>

It was shaping up to be a decent TOPIX Inclusion."And Then The Murders Began."*I first identified FaithNetwork Co Ltd (3489 JP) as a potential TSE1 candidate in my insight TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Recent "Tachiaigai Bunbai" Round-Up in June 2020. The company had explicitly stated they were working towards a TSE1 move when they launched a tachiaigai bunbai offering on 16th June 2020. The price was ¥1092 at the time. However, I did not ask investors to buy this name at that time given the uncertain timeline. That was the only offering in the previous 12 months.However, considering the new section transfer requirements I changed my view on this stock to an explicit buy recommendation on 29th September 2020 as explained in TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: Sep 2020. The stock was ¥1190 by then. From that point to early February, the share price gained +23.5% (despite having dipped to the ¥1050-60s level in the interim) with majority of this gain coming in the last 5 trading days prior to my latest insight on February 7, TOPIX Inclusion: FaithNetwork (3489 JP) which came when the company announced its ascension to TSE1.Despite that recent jump, the share price is still 40+% below its IPO Price of ¥2,500 roughly three years ago and I identified the event as a "Small Size Large Impact" (PURPLE) category TOPIX Inclusion in the Quiddity framework so was bullish.Yesterday afternoon we got new news which puts all this in doubt. More below the fold.* "And Then The Murders Began" is a twitter meme which suggests...

FaithNetwork TOPIX Inclusion: And Then The Murders Began

During the month of February 2021, one of the most anticipated TOPIX Inclusion candidates, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> completed its TOPIX Inclusion Event. We also saw four new names announce their TSE1 moves during this month, among which was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/faithnetwork-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29132:1" rel="noopener">FaithNetwork Co Ltd (3489 JP)</a> the third stock out of the four pre-event bets highlighted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-trade-summary-sep-2020" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43700" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: Sep 2020</a>. During this month, we also introduced new pre-event picks to be added to our list in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusions-who-is-ready-3-0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48306" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is READY? 3.0</a>. In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 4 "Live" event stocks which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of March/April 2021 and 17 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of January 2021 and February 2021.

During the month of February 2021, one of the most anticipated TOPIX Inclusion candidates, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) completed its TOPIX Inclusion Event. We also saw four new names announce their TSE1 moves during this month, among which was FaithNetwork Co Ltd (3489 JP) the third stock out of the four pre-event bets highlighted in TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: Sep 2020. During this month, we also introduced new pre-event picks to be added to our list in TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is READY? 3.0. In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 4 "Live" event stocks which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of March/April 2021 and 17 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of January 2021 and February 2021. 

In my insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-trade-summary-sep-2020" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43700" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: Sep 2020</a>, I discussed how the newly introduced Section Transfer requirements were going to impact the fate of some pre-event candidates for TOPIX Inclusion Events. In that insight, I picked four names from Quiddity's TOPIX Inclusions Pre-event Watchlist which could potentially try to apply before 1st November 2020 to avoid having to face the new (and more stringent) section transfer requirements. Since then, two out of our four picks have already confirmed their moves: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giftee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28280:1" rel="noopener">giftee Inc (4449 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/odk-solutions-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7143:1" rel="noopener">ODK Solutions (3839 JP)</a>. Friday after market-close, we had another candidate from this list confirm their move; Japanese real estate investment and construction company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/faithnetwork-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29132:1" rel="noopener">FaithNetwork Co Ltd (3489 JP)</a> announced they had received approval (<a href="https://global-assets.irdirect.jp/pdf/tdnet/batch/140120210205457098.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">J-only</a>) to move from the Mothers Market to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of 12th February 2021. Since we turned Bullish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/faithnetwork-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29132:1" rel="noopener">FaithNetwork Co Ltd (3489 JP)</a> on 29th September 2020, the stock has gained +23.5% (¥ 1,190 to ¥1,470). TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 30th March 2021.In this insight, we take a look at the Index Inclusion Parameters and the Fundamentals of the company to evaluate the upside potential of the TOPIX Inclusion Event.

In my insight TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: Sep 2020, I discussed how the newly introduced Section Transfer requirements were going to impact the fate of some pre-event candidates for TOPIX Inclusion Events. In that insight, I picked four names from Quiddity's TOPIX Inclusions Pre-event Watchlist which could potentially try to apply before 1st November 2020 to avoid having to face the new (and more stringent) section transfer requirements. Since then, two out of our four picks have already confirmed their moves: giftee Inc (4449 JP) and ODK Solutions (3839 JP). Friday after market-close, we had another candidate from this list confirm their move; Japanese real estate investment and construction company FaithNetwork Co Ltd (3489 JP) announced they had received approval (J-only) to move from the Mothers Market to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of 12th February 2021. Since we turned Bullish on FaithNetwork Co Ltd (3489 JP) on 29th September 2020, the stock has gained +23.5% (¥ 1,190 to ¥1,470). TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 30th March 2021.In this insight, we take a look at the Index Inclusion Parameters and the Fundamentals of the company to evaluate the upside potential of the TOPIX Inclusion Event. 

In the month of January 2021, one of the most anticipated TOPIX Inclusion candidates, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> announced its move to TSE1 triggering what could potentially be one of the largest TOPIX Inclusion events in recent memory. The stock could see its TOPIX Inclusion take place at the end of February, along with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28112:1" rel="noopener">Sansan Inc (4443 JP)</a> - another larger-than-usual candidate - and two other super-high-impact names <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bull-dog-sauce-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16235:1" rel="noopener">Bull Dog Sauce (2804 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a>. There is plenty to look forward to. In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 6 "Live" event stocks (including the names mentioned above) which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of February 2021 and 14 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of December 2020 and January 2021 (on 28 January 2021).Furthermore, I have also highlighted some interesting Pre-event situations involving stocks that are likely to become TSE1-promotion candidates in the near future.

In the month of January 2021, one of the most anticipated TOPIX Inclusion candidates, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) announced its move to TSE1 triggering what could potentially be one of the largest TOPIX Inclusion events in recent memory. The stock could see its TOPIX Inclusion take place at the end of February, along with Sansan Inc (4443 JP) - another larger-than-usual candidate - and two other super-high-impact names Bull Dog Sauce (2804 JP) and Alps Logistics (9055 JP). There is plenty to look forward to. In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 6 "Live" event stocks (including the names mentioned above) which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of February 2021 and 14 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of December 2020 and January 2021 (on 28 January 2021).Furthermore, I have also highlighted some interesting Pre-event situations involving stocks that are likely to become TSE1-promotion candidates in the near future. 

Japan

FaithNetwork Co. Ltd. operates real estate ownership and development services. The Company provides home renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, and other services. FaithNetwork also offers construction services. FaithNetwork serves customers in Japan.

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FaithNetwork Co Ltd (3489 JP)

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