'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/809/original/2020-04-14_04-54-14.png?1586807683" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127809"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>A CLEARER VISION - Softbank last made an earnings forecast in December 2010; however, the startling losses at the Vision Fund have prompted them to be more forthcoming, perhaps not entirely unrelated to their buyback programme.  The revisions amount to a cut of 3% to forecast for annual operating profit and net income for the market overall. We will leave the implications for the NAV discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kirk-boodry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1920" rel="noopener">Kirk Boodry</a> and others to fill in; however, we would note that the more traditional revised BPS is now 1.26. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/781/original/2020-04-13_18-22-38.png?1586769778" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127781"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • SNA</div>HOKKAIDO'S SECOND WAVE - Hokkaido has just reimposed a prefectural-level emergency having seen its second wave of infections after lifting restrictions on 19th March. Ten prefecture are imposing various degrees of quasi-lockdowns after Ishikawa-ken followed Aichi's example yesterday.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/816/original/File%202020-04-14%207%2027%2032.jpeg?1586816887" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127816"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • TMG <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/818/original/IMG_1317.jpg?1586817094" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127818"></figure>
</div><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK</div>MONDAY CASE COUNT - Tokyo saw just 91 new confirmed cases yesterday; however, Monday's tend to be quieter days due to a lower amount of testing. The rest of the country saw 125 new cases - only three prefectures saw more than ten new cases.NOT SO FULL DISCLOSURE - Japan's FSA is planning to postpone the deadline for submitting yuho annual reports for listed companies closing in March for three months, until the end of September, given the impact of the COVID-19.  The unaudited short-form kessan tanshin statements will continue, however, certain items including data on shareholdings will be delayed. Annual General Meetings for March year-end companies that generally take place in June will also have to be postponed.In the DETAIL below, we shall review the large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. The positive/neutral/negative balance for all 63 results was 29:9:25; for the 27 revisions/forecasts, the split was 11:1:15.

Source • Japan AnalyticsA CLEARER VISION - Softbank last made an earnings forecast in December 2010; however, the startling losses at the Vision Fund have prompted them to be more forthcoming, perhaps not entirely unrelated to their buyback programme.  The revisions amount to a cut of 3% to forecast for annual operating profit and net income for the market overall. We will leave the implications for the NAV discount to Kirk Boodry and others to fill in; however, we would note that the more traditional revised BPS is now 1.26. Source • SNAHOKKAIDO'S SECOND WAVE - Hokkaido has just reimposed a prefectural-level emergency having seen its second wave of infections after lifting restrictions on 19th March. Ten prefecture are imposing various degrees of quasi-lockdowns after Ishikawa-ken followed Aichi's example yesterday.Source • TMG 
Source • NHKMONDAY CASE COUNT - Tokyo saw just 91 new confirmed cases yesterday; however, Monday's tend to be quieter days due to a lower amount of testing. The rest of the country saw 125 new cases - only three prefectures saw more than ten new cases.NOT SO FULL DISCLOSURE - Japan's FSA is planning to postpone the deadline for submitting yuho annual reports for listed companies closing in March for three months, until the end of September, given the impact of the COVID-19.  The unaudited short-form kessan tanshin statements will continue, however, certain items including data on shareholdings will be delayed. Annual General Meetings for March year-end companies that generally take place in June will also have to be postponed.In the DETAIL below, we shall review the large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. The positive/neutral/negative balance for all 63 results was 29:9:25; for the 27 revisions/forecasts, the split was 11:1:15. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 13th April - A Clearer Vision

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

The convenience store sector is arguably Japan’s strongest and most creative. It has grown while other sectors have suffered but, while food sellers have generally had an easier time following the October consumption tax increase, results at the biggest CVS chains were still disappointing in December.For the first time in 14 years, store numbers fell and, worryingly, customers are spending less.

The convenience store sector is arguably Japan’s strongest and most creative. It has grown while other sectors have suffered but, while food sellers have generally had an easier time following the October consumption tax increase, results at the biggest CVS chains were still disappointing in December.For the first time in 14 years, store numbers fell and, worryingly, customers are spending less.

Japan's Convenience Stores: Tougher Trading

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

After a lengthy delay, Japan has increased its consumption tax from 8% to 10%. The tax hike came into effect from 1st of October 2019. The government plans to use the additional revenues from the consumption tax increase to fund social welfare programs and pay down public debt. However, the consumption tax hike is expected to have a negative impact on consumer spending. To counter this, the government has introduced certain measures such as exempting certain food items and takeout orders at restaurants from the tax hike and also started giving rebates for some purchases made using electronic payments.Below we look at the official retail spending statistics to understand the immediate impact of the consumption tax hike on different sectors/industries.

After a lengthy delay, Japan has increased its consumption tax from 8% to 10%. The tax hike came into effect from 1st of October 2019. The government plans to use the additional revenues from the consumption tax increase to fund social welfare programs and pay down public debt. However, the consumption tax hike is expected to have a negative impact on consumer spending. To counter this, the government has introduced certain measures such as exempting certain food items and takeout orders at restaurants from the tax hike and also started giving rebates for some purchases made using electronic payments.Below we look at the official retail spending statistics to understand the immediate impact of the consumption tax hike on different sectors/industries.

Japan Consumption Tax Hike: The Impact on Convenience Stores and Cosmetics

The convenience store sector is today the single largest channel in Japanese retailing. Combining both merchandise and digital services, e-commerce generates more revenues overall, but for merchandise alone, the ‘conbini’ or ‘CVS’ sector is still ¥2 trillion larger.It is also the most concentrated of any in retailing, with just three major companies and, depending on how you look at it, the most profitable. There is every chance that the dynamic nature of convenience retailing, along with its close integration with Japanese work practices and society as a whole, will provide room for further growth in the medium-term, but the current growth rate is about to slow.FY2019 marks the first reduction in new store opening plans among the top three chains for more than a decade, and investment is now shifting to existing stores and new ideas to ensure continued customer interest.

The convenience store sector is today the single largest channel in Japanese retailing. Combining both merchandise and digital services, e-commerce generates more revenues overall, but for merchandise alone, the ‘conbini’ or ‘CVS’ sector is still ¥2 trillion larger.It is also the most concentrated of any in retailing, with just three major companies and, depending on how you look at it, the most profitable. There is every chance that the dynamic nature of convenience retailing, along with its close integration with Japanese work practices and society as a whole, will provide room for further growth in the medium-term, but the current growth rate is about to slow.FY2019 marks the first reduction in new store opening plans among the top three chains for more than a decade, and investment is now shifting to existing stores and new ideas to ensure continued customer interest.

Convenience Stores: Saturation but Still Growth for Some

A <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">Familymart (8028 JP)</a> store installed the first set of Amazon Hub Locker delivery lockers in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> will roll out its new lockers to other Familymarts, supermarkets and some railway stations in Tokyo in the coming months.The growing level of competition between Amazon and Seven Eleven and, to some extent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamato-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2:1" rel="noopener">Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)</a>, should lead to a rapid roll out of lockers from multiple providers.

A Familymart (8028 JP) store installed the first set of Amazon Hub Locker delivery lockers in September. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) will roll out its new lockers to other Familymarts, supermarkets and some railway stations in Tokyo in the coming months.The growing level of competition between Amazon and Seven Eleven and, to some extent, Yamato Holdings (9064 JP), should lead to a rapid roll out of lockers from multiple providers.

Familymart Installs First Amazon Delivery Lockers

Japan

FamilyMart Co., Ltd. operates convenience store chains. The Company provides rice balls, hot snacks, stews, beverages, and other products. FamilyMart conducts businesses in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, and other countries and regions.

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FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 13th April - A Clearer Vision

A CLEARER VISION - Softbank last made an earnings forecast in December 2010; however, the startling losses at the Vision Fund have prompted them to...

Campbell Gunn

Japan's Convenience Stores: Tougher Trading

The convenience store sector is arguably Japan’s strongest and most creative. It has grown while other sectors have suffered but, while food...

Michael Causton

Japan Consumption Tax Hike: The Impact on Convenience Stores and Cosmetics

After a lengthy delay, Japan has increased its consumption tax from 8% to 10%. The tax hike came into effect from 1st of October 2019. The...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Convenience Stores: Saturation but Still Growth for Some

The convenience store sector is today the single largest channel in Japanese retailing. Combining both merchandise and digital services, e-commerce...

Michael Causton

Familymart Installs First Amazon Delivery Lockers

A Familymart (8028 JP) store installed the first set of Amazon Hub Locker delivery lockers in September. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) will roll out its...

Michael Causton

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