Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With full-year Earnings Season basically over, we put together some aggregate numbers to see how Japanese companies did and what is the new outlook. For the overall market, Sales was down 2%, OP was up 1.3% and Net Income was up 11% in FY3/17. The Semiconductors &amp; Semiconductor Equipment sector did well with Sales up 31% and OP up 38%. On the other side, Sales in the Automobiles &amp; Components sector fell 3% and OP was down 12%.Looking towards FY3/18,  at the aggregate level companies are…

With full-year Earnings Season basically over, we put together some aggregate numbers to see how Japanese companies did and what is the new outlook. For the overall market, Sales was down 2%, OP was up 1.3% and Net Income was up 11% in FY3/17. The Semiconductors &amp; Semiconductor Equipment sector did well with Sales up 31% and OP up 38%. On the other side, Sales in the Automobiles &amp; Components sector fell 3% and OP was down 12%.Looking towards FY3/18,  at the aggregate level companies are…

Looking Towards FY3/18 - New Overall Japan OP Expected to Grow 8% in the Coming Year....

Fintech, Real-time Big-Data Analytics Provider, Nowcast, Inc.

Ryota Hayashi

Fintech, Real-time Big-Data Analytics Provider

Nowcast, Inc.

We at Nowcast develop "Big-Data Economic Analytics Platforms".  We aim to revolutionize the financial markets by providing "accurate" and "real-time" analytics based on economic indicators and corporate activity data procured worldwide. 

Our Main Services

(1) Real-time Analytics
With our Nikkei CPI Now Index at our core, we provide real time analytics of global economic indicators such as POS Data. By utilizing Big-Data technology, we also provide real-time analytics of micro level data such as corporate earnings. 

(2) Big-Data Application Consulting
We too provide business consultation and conduct joint research on initiatives that strive to use data, such as from the operation capacity of construction machinery to number of passengers on railroad trains, as economic indicators. We provide continuous support to Data Scientists specialized in economics in their proposal stage, product development and up till its business development. 

(3) Monetary Policy Insights
With the proactive involvement of and support from from academicians in macroeconomics & key figures in the financial industry, we produce reports, conduct seminars and meetings that discuss about the forecast of financial markets, provide intellectual suggestions on asset allocation, etc. 

Macroeconomics

<ul class="ember-tether-target ember-tether-element-attached-top ember-tether-element-attached-left ember-tether-target-attached-top ember-tether-target-attached-right"><li>"Nikkei CPINow" is a statistical database produced by Nowcast Inc. that provides real-time economic statistics using so-called “big data” gathered on a real-time basis; making it possible to “nowcast” economic developments, that is, to gauge them almost in real time.</li><li>Nikkei CPINow was launched in January 2016, disseminating the new “CPINow” price indeces, which succeeds and improves upon the Nikkei UTokyo Daily Price Index.</li><li>This December 2016 Review looks into analyzing the current developments in Japan's economy based on The Nikkei CPINow S index &amp; T index.</li></ul>

"Nikkei CPINow" is a statistical database produced by Nowcast Inc. that provides real-time economic statistics using so-called “big data” gathered on a real-time basis; making it possible to “nowcast” economic developments, that is, to gauge them almost in real time.Nikkei CPINow was launched in January 2016, disseminating the new “CPINow” price indeces, which succeeds and improves upon the Nikkei UTokyo Daily Price Index.This December 2016 Review looks into analyzing the current developments in Japan's economy based on The Nikkei CPINow S index &amp; T index.

December 2016 Review of Current Developments in Japan's Economy

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bain notes that its JPY2,200 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a> is final and has no intention of extending the close beyond 7 April.</li>
<li>There remains a chance of a bump as these “final” statements are not binding, and Bain clearly does not have the required acceptances. However, the probability remains low.</li>
<li>The likely scenario remains that Bain completes the offer by lowering the minimum, as today’s statement is likely designed to secure enough acceptances to complete the deal by doing so.</li>
</ul>


Bain notes that its JPY2,200 offer for MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP) is final and has no intention of extending the close beyond 7 April.
There remains a chance of a bump as these “final” statements are not binding, and Bain clearly does not have the required acceptances. However, the probability remains low.
The likely scenario remains that Bain completes the offer by lowering the minimum, as today’s statement is likely designed to secure enough acceptances to complete the deal by doing so.


MCJ (6670 JP): Bain Moves to Deflate Expectations of a Bump

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>This morning, Elliott made its case to interested investors, explaining much of its presentation and the possible choices investors face. TF's average buy price is &lt;¥18,000. Q3 BVPS likely ¥20k+.</li>
<li>But of course, realtime BVPS is higher, and transaction structure BVPS comes out near ¥24k. This is too cheap. Still. </li>
<li>Post-Close today, BidCo said "[The TOB Price] is the best possible price that reflects the intrinsic value of [TICO]". That tells me and many others, Bidco isn't the right buyer. </li>
</ul>


This morning, Elliott made its case to interested investors, explaining much of its presentation and the possible choices investors face. TF's average buy price is &lt;¥18,000. Q3 BVPS likely ¥20k+.
But of course, realtime BVPS is higher, and transaction structure BVPS comes out near ¥24k. This is too cheap. Still. 
Post-Close today, BidCo said "[The TOB Price] is the best possible price that reflects the intrinsic value of [TICO]". That tells me and many others, Bidco isn't the right buyer. 


[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota RE Says No Bump for Toyota Inds (6201) Part III - Elliott Makes Its Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>’s 3Q results further emphasise that Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer is light. The offer implies a P/B ratio of 0.93x based on the 3Q book value.</li>
<li>Fudosan’s assertion that it will not change the offer price is not credible. Elliott is likely to further increase its stake but is unlikely have its price expectations met.</li>
<li>Fudosan’s likely gameplan is to bump above 3Q book value (JPY21,300 to bring the P/B back to the pre-3Q ratio of 1.05x) and possibly also lower the minimum. </li>
</ul>



Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s 3Q results further emphasise that Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer is light. The offer implies a P/B ratio of 0.93x based on the 3Q book value.
Fudosan’s assertion that it will not change the offer price is not credible. Elliott is likely to further increase its stake but is unlikely have its price expectations met.
Fudosan’s likely gameplan is to bump above 3Q book value (JPY21,300 to bring the P/B back to the pre-3Q ratio of 1.05x) and possibly also lower the minimum. 


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Who Wins This Game of Chicken?

Japan

FANCL CORPORATION produces and sells additive-free skin care cosmetics for both women and men.  The Company's products include cleansing creams, hair care goods such as shampoos and conditioners, and facial make up products.  Fancl also makes and distributes dietary supplements including royal jelly and various tablets with extracted essence from mushrooms, garlic, ginseng, and soy beans.

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Fancl Corp (4921 JP)

Looking Towards FY3/18 - New Overall Japan OP Expected to Grow 8% in the Coming Year....

With full-year Earnings Season basically over, we put together some aggregate numbers to see how Japanese companies did and what is the new...

Custom Products Group

December 2016 Review of Current Developments in Japan's Economy

"Nikkei CPINow" is a statistical database produced by Nowcast Inc. that provides real-time economic statistics using so-called “big data”...

Nowcast, Inc.

MCJ (6670 JP): Bain Moves to Deflate Expectations of a Bump

As these "final offer" statements are not binding, there remains a chance of a bump. However, the likely scenario remains that Bain completes the...

Arun George

[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota RE Says No Bump for Toyota Inds (6201) Part III - Elliott Makes Its Case

Elliott today made a technical filing, with a slightly larger position (7.14% vs 6.65%) They bought shares at a pace of 5-7bp of outstanding per...

Travis Lundy

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Who Wins This Game of Chicken?

Elliott has increased its holding from 21.7 to 23.3 million shares (7.21% to 7.74% ownership ratio). The latest purchases, made after the release...

Arun George

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