Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>On Friday we warned that Fanuc might come through with a surprise downgrade as a result of weakness in its Robomachine division. We said that FA and Robot sales were likely flattish QoQ (-0.8% QoQ and +6.1% QoQ respectively) but that the Robomachine division could see sales collapse to about ¥28bn from ¥53.2bn in the last quarter. They did, falling to ¥27.8bn. What remains to be seen is how far ahead of the clueless and oblivious sellside (which projected a 1.6% QoQ rise in sales) the market was. For now though…</p><p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/gbGfhT1yehw" width="640" height="360"></iframe></p>

On Friday we warned that Fanuc might come through with a surprise downgrade as a result of weakness in its Robomachine division. We said that FA and Robot sales were likely flattish QoQ (-0.8% QoQ and +6.1% QoQ respectively) but that the Robomachine division could see sales collapse to about ¥28bn from ¥53.2bn in the last quarter. They did, falling to ¥27.8bn. What remains to be seen is how far ahead of the clueless and oblivious sellside (which projected a 1.6% QoQ rise in sales) the market was. For now though…

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Q2 2023 results for FANUC Group showed a 3.7% decrease in consolidated net sales, a 24.5% drop in consolidated operating income, and mixed performance in its divisions.</li>
<li>Some positives: operating profit exceeding analyst expectations and an operating margin increase to 17.2%. However, declining robot orders, challenges in the US region, and high inventory remain concerns</li>
<li>We believe that the stock is currently trading around fair value (20x EV/EBIT). However, we still see risks to the downside given macro concerns</li>
</ul>


Q2 2023 results for FANUC Group showed a 3.7% decrease in consolidated net sales, a 24.5% drop in consolidated operating income, and mixed performance in its divisions.
Some positives: operating profit exceeding analyst expectations and an operating margin increase to 17.2%. However, declining robot orders, challenges in the US region, and high inventory remain concerns
We believe that the stock is currently trading around fair value (20x EV/EBIT). However, we still see risks to the downside given macro concerns


<ul>
<li>Fanuc reported 1Q3/24 operating profit of ¥32.6 billion (-26.3% YoY), missing street expectations at around ¥43 billion</li>
<li>Fanuc cut full year guidance for operating profit to ¥118 billion (-38% YoY), way below street estimates of ¥176 billion</li>
<li>Turning bearish. We think the stock will essentially tread water given lack of catalysts over next 6-9 months and valuations</li>
</ul>


Fanuc reported 1Q3/24 operating profit of ¥32.6 billion (-26.3% YoY), missing street expectations at around ¥43 billion
Fanuc cut full year guidance for operating profit to ¥118 billion (-38% YoY), way below street estimates of ¥176 billion
Turning bearish. We think the stock will essentially tread water given lack of catalysts over next 6-9 months and valuations


Fanuc (6954) | Earnings Miss; Guidance Slashed

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Doosan Robotics  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-robotics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36816:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Robotics (DOOSANROBO KS)</a> is looking to raise up to US$314m in its Korean IPO. </li>
<li>Doosan Robotics (DR) manufactures and sells collaborative robots (Cobots). The firm’s product portfolio primarily includes different series of robot arms as well as its coffee module. </li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.</li>
</ul>



Doosan Robotics (DOOSANROBO KS) is looking to raise up to US$314m in its Korean IPO. 
Doosan Robotics (DR) manufactures and sells collaborative robots (Cobots). The firm’s product portfolio primarily includes different series of robot arms as well as its coffee module. 
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.


Doosan Robotics IPO - Thoughts on Valuation - A Punt at Best, a Crash at Worst

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The 2023 Version of <strong>JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What?</strong> where we break down the major (and minor) passive tracking indices and which category of investor owns how much of each. </li>
<li>Even if you do not "play" index changes, understanding impact is important. Advantest is up 100% in 3mos. Existing passive ownership and new passive buying were crucial to that performance.</li>
<li>Understanding the nature of the ownership and flows is crucial to understanding how to trade certain stocks in Japan. </li>
</ul>


The 2023 Version of JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What? where we break down the major (and minor) passive tracking indices and which category of investor owns how much of each. 
Even if you do not "play" index changes, understanding impact is important. Advantest is up 100% in 3mos. Existing passive ownership and new passive buying were crucial to that performance.
Understanding the nature of the ownership and flows is crucial to understanding how to trade certain stocks in Japan. 


Japan

FANUC CORPORATION manufactures factory automation (FA) systems and equipments, and robots. The Company's products include computerized numerically-controlled (CNC) equipment, servo motors, laser systems, industrial robots, wire-cut electric discharge machines, and CNC drill.  Fanuc participates in a joint venture with General Electric in the FA field.

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Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)

Fanuc – Whoomp! There It Is

On Friday we warned that Fanuc might come through with a surprise downgrade as a result of weakness in its Robomachine division. They did.

Mio Kato

Fanuc (6954) | Not Out of the Woods Yet

FANUC Group's Q2 2023 results show a decrease in sales and operating income, mixed division performance.. Stock is trading at fair value but...

Mark Chadwick

Fanuc (6954) | Earnings Miss; Guidance Slashed

Our long-term investment thesis sees Fanuc as a key beneficiary of the de-globalization of supply chains and EV capex. However, we need to wait for...

Mark Chadwick

Doosan Robotics IPO - Thoughts on Valuation - A Punt at Best, a Crash at Worst

Doosan Robotics (DOOSANROBO KS) is looking to raise up to US$314m in its Korean IPO. comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.

Ethan Aw

JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2023?

This is the annual JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What report for 2023. It is a comprehensive of the major index exposures in Japan by index tracker type,...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fanuc – Whoomp! There It Is

On Friday we warned that Fanuc might come through with a surprise downgrade as a result of weakness in its Robomachine division. They did.

Mio Kato

Fanuc (6954) | Not Out of the Woods Yet

​FANUC Group's Q2 2023 results show a decrease in sales and operating income, mixed division performance.. Stock is trading at fair value but...

Mark Chadwick

Fanuc (6954) | Earnings Miss; Guidance Slashed

Our long-term investment thesis sees Fanuc as a key beneficiary of the de-globalization of supply chains and EV capex. However, we need to wait for...

Mark Chadwick

Doosan Robotics IPO - Thoughts on Valuation - A Punt at Best, a Crash at Worst

Doosan Robotics (DOOSANROBO KS) is looking to raise up to US$314m in its Korean IPO. comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.

Ethan Aw

JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2023?

This is the annual JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What report for 2023. It is a comprehensive of the major index exposures in Japan by index tracker type,...

Travis Lundy

FANUC Group's Q2 2023 results show a decrease in sales and operating income, mixed division performance.. Stock is trading at fair value but...