Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Victory Giant Technology -A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 12 changes at the December rebalance with the Information Technology sector gaining 2 index spots and a smaller number of changes in the other sectors.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 2.7% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 69.8bn (US$9.8bn). There are 8 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> over the last 5 months while the forecast deletes have underperformed the index.</li>
</ul>


There could be 12 changes at the December rebalance with the Information Technology sector gaining 2 index spots and a smaller number of changes in the other sectors.
We estimate one-way turnover of 2.7% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 69.8bn (US$9.8bn). There are 8 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.
The forecast adds have outperformed the CSI 300 Index over the last 5 months while the forecast deletes have underperformed the index.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 12 Changes a Side as Trade Nears US$10bn

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.</li>
<li>Dongfeng has now released the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof for VOYAH</a>, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.</li>
<li>The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.</li>
</ul>


On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
Dongfeng has now released the application proof for VOYAH, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.
The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.


Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH's Updated Financials

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.</li>
<li>The share price closed up 54% on the first day, ~15% adrift of the independently valued cash + scrip (into VOYAH) under the privatisation.  </li>
<li>Shares have pared back 5% since. VOYAH's peer basket has fallen ~15% on average. The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 1.9x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
The share price closed up 54% on the first day, ~15% adrift of the independently valued cash + scrip (into VOYAH) under the privatisation.  
Shares have pared back 5% since. VOYAH's peer basket has fallen ~15% on average. The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 1.9x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 300 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Cosco Shipping, Longi Green, Tongwei, China Railway, Trina Solar, Xinjiang Daqo, TCL Zhonghuan, Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 300 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Cosco Shipping, Longi Green, Tongwei, China Railway, Trina Solar, Xinjiang Daqo, TCL Zhonghuan, Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong.


CSI 300 Earning Revision Analysis (May): Cosco Shipping, Longi Green, Tongwei, China Railway

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.</li>
<li>The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bestechnic-shanghai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33459:1" rel="noopener">Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH)</a> is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.
The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).

Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.


China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

China

FAW Jiefang Group Co., Ltd, through joint ventures, manufactures and markets cars and auto parts.  The Company produces automobiles, transmission systems, and engines.  FAW Car also provides auto repair and customizing services.

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FAW Jiefang Group Co., Ltd A (000800 CH)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 12 Changes a Side as Trade Nears US$10bn

There could be 12 changes in Dec. Estimate one-way turnover is 2.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$9.8bn. The adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH's Updated Financials

There's been a lot of enthusiasm washing over HK spin-offs lately: Zijin Mining (2899 HK), MINISO (9896 HK), and now Dongfeng. I think Dongfeng is...

David Blennerhassett

Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation

Tricky trade. I might've been overly bullish in my initial note. The gross spread (to my implied price) is perhaps ~11%. If not in, I'd be inclined...

David Blennerhassett

CSI 300 Earning Revision Analysis (May): Cosco Shipping, Longi Green, Tongwei, China Railway

We analyzed CSI 300's consensus for May 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Cosco Shipping (601919 CH), Longi Green (601012 CH), Tongwei (600438...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

There could be up to 10 adds/29 deletes for China in Feb. Flow varies from US$14m-175m and impact from 0.05x-22.75x ADV. Bestechnic Shanghai is a...

Brian Freitas

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