Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Relative strength for MSCI EM is bottoming vs. MSCI EAFE despite continued global equity market weakness.  Although the MSCI EM's price index remains in a downtrend, we are seeing signs of outperformance ona a relative strength basis and would add incremental exposure. In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Relative strength for MSCI EM is bottoming vs. MSCI EAFE despite continued global equity market weakness.  Although the MSCI EM's price index remains in a downtrend, we are seeing signs of outperformance ona a relative strength basis and would add incremental exposure. In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The last thing which struggling debtors in India need is another interest rate increase. But this is precisely what they will get. Given extreme weakness in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22832" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22832:1">INR (USDINR CURNCY)</a> exchange rate,  rising rates will not likely end now. We have seen considerable fraud in India banking. We have seen financial irregularities. CEO positions have been constrained by the regulator. We have seen fines for banks doing misdeeds - Federal Bank the latest. What we have not yet seen are USD loans turning bad due to weakening currency, weakening economy. Perhaps this is next?

The last thing which struggling debtors in India need is another interest rate increase. But this is precisely what they will get. Given extreme weakness in the INR (USDINR CURNCY) exchange rate,  rising rates will not likely end now. We have seen considerable fraud in India banking. We have seen financial irregularities. CEO positions have been constrained by the regulator. We have seen fines for banks doing misdeeds - Federal Bank the latest. What we have not yet seen are USD loans turning bad due to weakening currency, weakening economy. Perhaps this is next?

India – Weakening Rupee Means Little Relief For Banks

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/547" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> ‘conflict of interest’ saga has caught the attention of every business media house, analyst and investors community. The news is more focused on Ms. Chanda Kochhar (CEO of ICICI Bank) husband’s advisory business which talks about potential conflict of interest while lending to few corporate entities.  In such scenario of uncertainties, the presence of such conflicts of interest in other private sector banks cannot be ruled out. The ICICI Bank saga was on the conflicting business of CEO’s spouse, however, no one has questioned on possibilities of such conflicting businesses owned by the directors on the board of many of these private sector banks.We tried to dig into the details of entities that are into businesses such as financial advisory or investment banking or debt syndication, which are being owned/ under directorship of persons, who are also occupying seats on the board of 19 private sector banks.

ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) ‘conflict of interest’ saga has caught the attention of every business media house, analyst and investors community. The news is more focused on Ms. Chanda Kochhar (CEO of ICICI Bank) husband’s advisory business which talks about potential conflict of interest while lending to few corporate entities.  In such scenario of uncertainties, the presence of such conflicts of interest in other private sector banks cannot be ruled out. The ICICI Bank saga was on the conflicting business of CEO’s spouse, however, no one has questioned on possibilities of such conflicting businesses owned by the directors on the board of many of these private sector banks.We tried to dig into the details of entities that are into businesses such as financial advisory or investment banking or debt syndication, which are being owned/ under directorship of persons, who are also occupying seats on the board of 19 private sector banks.

Banks' Board: Minefield of ‘Conflicts of Interests’?

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

India

Federal Bank is a major Indian private sector commercial bank offering a comprehensive suite of banking and financial services, including retail banking, wholesale banking, and treasury operations. It provides products such as savings and current accounts, loans, credit and debit cards, insurance, and wealth management. The bank is headquartered in Aluva, Kochi, Kerala, India, and was founded on April 23, 1931.

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Federal Bank (FB IN)

EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight

Relative strength for MSCI EM is bottoming vs. MSCI EAFE despite continued global equity market weakness. Although the MSCI EM's price index...

Vermilion Research

India – Weakening Rupee Means Little Relief For Banks

The last thing which struggling debtors in India need is another interest rate increase. But this is precisely what they will get. Given extreme...

Daniel Tabbush

Banks' Board: Minefield of ‘Conflicts of Interests’?

ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) ‘conflict of interest’ saga has caught the attention of every business media house, analyst and investors community....

Nitin Mangal

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the...

Hemindra Hazari

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this...

Asia Advisors

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