External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

We incorporate the recent equity infusion and revise our FY22/FY23E PAT estimates upwards by 1% each and maintain BUY with a revised TP of INR 98 (earlier INR 97). Federal Banks (FB) Annual Report 2020-21 reinforces a steady franchise that is gradually adding new guardrails (FinTech partnerships in white spaces and high-ROA businesses such as CVs, MFI and credit cards) to its conventional moats (granular deposits, strong underwriting architecture and a secular NR franchise). Despite conservative impairment recognition during the pandemic year, FB carries limited baggage, albeit with negligible provisioning buffers.<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

We incorporate the recent equity infusion and revise our FY22/FY23E PAT estimates upwards by 1% each and maintain BUY with a revised TP of INR 98 (earlier INR 97). Federal Banks (FB) Annual Report 2020-21 reinforces a steady franchise that is gradually adding new guardrails (FinTech partnerships in white spaces and high-ROA businesses such as CVs, MFI and credit cards) to its conventional moats (granular deposits, strong underwriting architecture and a secular NR franchise). Despite conservative impairment recognition during the pandemic year, FB carries limited baggage, albeit with negligible provisioning buffers.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Federal Bank (Annual Report Analysis): New guardrails under construction for new profit pools....

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

We recommend BUY with TP of Rs. 100/share.<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

We recommend BUY with TP of Rs. 100/share.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Results Highly Reliant On Gains: Canara Bank (CBK.IN) [Canara] reported bottom-line results of INR 10.1 bn for FY 4Q21, improving INR 6.0 bn (85.5%) linked quarter. Results were driven one factor alone: am INR 9.3 bn (21.8%) increase in various sundry gains - securities, F/X, et al. As awe calculate, these various low quality items and gains amounted to INR 48.9 bn during FY 4Q21 or nearly 5x Canara’s stated bottom-line result; and  * Credit Leads To Solvency Concerns: Given the INR 27.3 bn in NCO, we calculate that annualized net new NPLs amount to 21.7%. We remain highly concerned about Canara’s credit outlook, given the concentrations of SMA loans, ‘BBB’ and below corporate, and MSME loans; and poor collection efficiency.  By our calculation, Canara’s loan loss reserve falls short by INR 674.0 bn or by 180.2% - representing 115% of Canara’s equity base and implying a lack of solvency.

*Results Highly Reliant On Gains: Canara Bank (CBK.IN) [Canara] reported bottom-line results of INR 10.1 bn for FY 4Q21, improving INR 6.0 bn (85.5%) linked quarter. Results were driven one factor alone: am INR 9.3 bn (21.8%) increase in various sundry gains - securities, F/X, et al. As awe calculate, these various low quality items and gains amounted to INR 48.9 bn during FY 4Q21 or nearly 5x Canara’s stated bottom-line result; and  * Credit Leads To Solvency Concerns: Given the INR 27.3 bn in NCO, we calculate that annualized net new NPLs amount to 21.7%. We remain highly concerned about Canara’s credit outlook, given the concentrations of SMA loans, ‘BBB’ and below corporate, and MSME loans; and poor collection efficiency.  By our calculation, Canara’s loan loss reserve falls short by INR 674.0 bn or by 180.2% - representing 115% of Canara’s equity base and implying a lack of solvency.

Canara Bank – India’s Trash Compactor

*Another Unwarranted Provision Reduction: Federal Bank’s (FB.IN) results were likely managed, as it posted FY 4Q21 bottom-line result of INR 4.8 bn – improving INR 737 mn (18.2%) linked quarter. One factor, which was simply ridiculous, given the state of Federal Bank’s balance sheet, drove the improvement – aggressively cutting loss provisions again; and*Reserve Cover Is Shallow: Net new problem loans increased INR 8.4 bn or 78.4% on an annualized basis – dangerously accelerating over FY 3Q21. We remain discouraged that management hasn’t taken the opportunity to more aggressively address the risk sitting pon balance sheet. In fact, we find that reserve cover is increasingly light by close to INR 84.5 bn (versus being short INR 50.0 bn just a quarter ago) – nearly 20 years of core operating performance.

*Another Unwarranted Provision Reduction: Federal Bank’s (FB.IN) results were likely managed, as it posted FY 4Q21 bottom-line result of INR 4.8 bn – improving INR 737 mn (18.2%) linked quarter. One factor, which was simply ridiculous, given the state of Federal Bank’s balance sheet, drove the improvement – aggressively cutting loss provisions again; and*Reserve Cover Is Shallow: Net new problem loans increased INR 8.4 bn or 78.4% on an annualized basis – dangerously accelerating over FY 3Q21. We remain discouraged that management hasn’t taken the opportunity to more aggressively address the risk sitting pon balance sheet. In fact, we find that reserve cover is increasingly light by close to INR 84.5 bn (versus being short INR 50.0 bn just a quarter ago) – nearly 20 years of core operating performance.    

Federal Bank – A Five Year Hole Has Developed

*Result Beat On Unwarranted Provision Reduction: Federal Bank (FB.IN) posted FY 3Q21 bottom-line results of INR 4.0 bn, exhibiting linked quarter improvement of INR 965 mn (31.4%). Two factors drove the bottom-line – one legitimate, the latter simply ridiculous: a) net interest income improved INR 571 mn (4.1%) tracking both loan growth of INR 26.0 bn (2.1%) and NIM improvement of 10 bp to 3.00%; and b) a drop of INR 1.7 bn (29.0%) in its loss provision despite an annualized net new problem loan increase of over 67%; and*Reserve Cover Is Shallow: If we look at coverage of total problem loans, which includes the restructured book, coverage amounts to just 59.0% versus 57.7% at FY 2Q21. Although we are encouraged by the linked quarter improvement, we do feel that reserve cover is quite light by close to INR 50.0 bn – nearly three years of bottom-line performance.

*Result Beat On Unwarranted Provision Reduction: Federal Bank (FB.IN) posted FY 3Q21 bottom-line results of INR 4.0 bn, exhibiting linked quarter improvement of INR 965 mn (31.4%). Two factors drove the bottom-line – one legitimate, the latter simply ridiculous: a) net interest income improved INR 571 mn (4.1%) tracking both loan growth of INR 26.0 bn (2.1%) and NIM improvement of 10 bp to 3.00%; and b) a drop of INR 1.7 bn (29.0%) in its loss provision despite an annualized net new problem loan increase of over 67%; and*Reserve Cover Is Shallow: If we look at coverage of total problem loans, which includes the restructured book, coverage amounts to just 59.0% versus 57.7% at FY 2Q21. Although we are encouraged by the linked quarter improvement, we do feel that reserve cover is quite light by close to INR 50.0 bn – nearly three years of bottom-line performance.    

India

Federal Bank is a major Indian private sector commercial bank offering a comprehensive suite of banking and financial services, including retail banking, wholesale banking, and treasury operations. It provides products such as savings and current accounts, loans, credit and debit cards, insurance, and wealth management. The bank is headquartered in Aluva, Kochi, Kerala, India, and was founded on April 23, 1931.

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Federal Bank (FB IN)

Federal Bank (Annual Report Analysis): New guardrails under construction for new profit pools....

We incorporate the recent equity infusion and revise our FY22/FY23E PAT estimates upwards by 1% each and maintain BUY with a revised TP of INR 98...

HDFC Securities

Pick of the Week:14 JUN 2021

We recommend BUY with TP of Rs. 100/share.

Axis Direct

Canara Bank – India’s Trash Compactor

CANARA BANK: Canara reported QOQ bottom-line improvement of 85.5%, reliant on gains. Net new NPLs amount to 21.7%, but its reserve shortfall...

Thomas J. Monaco

Federal Bank – A Five Year Hole Has Developed

FEDERAL BANK: FB's FY 4Q21 bottom-line QOQ result improved 18.2% due to an unwarranted provision cut. Net new NPLs accelerated 78.4% QOQ, while ...

Thomas J. Monaco

Federal Bank – Deserving No Credit

FEDERAL BANK: FB FY 3Q21 bottom-line results improved 31.4% linked quarter, as it dropped its provision 29.0% despite its annualized net new...

Thomas J. Monaco

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