Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

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Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.</li>
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Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.</li>
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Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.

Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> remains in a bullish setup. Quantitative models highlight further upside potential in the near term and identify key support levels.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: With implied volatility near multi-year lows (12th percentile), long call strategies are favored. Suitable expiries and strikes are outlined, with an alternative structure discussed for reducing premium outlay.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where low implied volatility and bullish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.</li>
</ul>



Context:HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) remains in a bullish setup. Quantitative models highlight further upside potential in the near term and identify key support levels.

Trade Idea: With implied volatility near multi-year lows (12th percentile), long call strategies are favored. Suitable expiries and strikes are outlined, with an alternative structure discussed for reducing premium outlay.

Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where low implied volatility and bullish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Ready for the Rally with Tactical Low-Cost Options

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its latest monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, maintained status quo on policy rates while also retaining its neutral stance</li><li>While the RBI maintained its FY26 forecast for GDP growth at 6.5%, we believe that the RBI’s forecasts are subject to downside risks unless the system sees a meaningful rebound in bank credit growth</li><li>Although asset yields have seen reasonably quick transmission by banks (71bps on fresh loans), aggregate bank credit growth has been clocking at sub-10% over the past few months</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its latest monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, maintained status quo on policy rates while also retaining its neutral stanceWhile the RBI maintained its FY26 forecast for GDP growth at 6.5%, we believe that the RBI’s forecasts are subject to downside risks unless the system sees a meaningful rebound in bank credit growthAlthough asset yields have seen reasonably quick transmission by banks (71bps on fresh loans), aggregate bank credit growth has been clocking at sub-10% over the past few monthsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: Transmission Underway, Searching for Growth Catalysts

<ul><li>Federal Bank: Federal Bank’s (FB) Q1FY26 earnings missed our estimates, owing to elevated provisioning towards the MFI portfolio, coupled with muted growth on both sides of the balance sheet, offset by stronger traction in fee income</li><li>Deposit growth (8% YoY, 1.3% QoQ) was soft, while the CASA ratio was largely stable at 30.3% (+12 bps QoQ), driven by pick-up in savings account balances</li><li>The management indicated that the MFI stress has peaked out, with other asset classes remaining stable</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Federal Bank: Federal Bank’s (FB) Q1FY26 earnings missed our estimates, owing to elevated provisioning towards the MFI portfolio, coupled with muted growth on both sides of the balance sheet, offset by stronger traction in fee incomeDeposit growth (8% YoY, 1.3% QoQ) was soft, while the CASA ratio was largely stable at 30.3% (+12 bps QoQ), driven by pick-up in savings account balancesThe management indicated that the MFI stress has peaked out, with other asset classes remaining stableContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Federal Bank, Stylam Industries

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The systemic credit growth (as of 13th June, 2025) has derailed to &lt;10%.</li><li>This can be attributed to a meaningful slowdown in the unsecured loans amidst continued asset quality challenges alongside banks, mainly private banks, intending to bring down their LDRs to a balanced level.</li><li>We expect the bank under our coverage to deliver ~11% YoY credit growth, marginally ahead of industry growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The systemic credit growth (as of 13th June, 2025) has derailed to &lt;10%.This can be attributed to a meaningful slowdown in the unsecured loans amidst continued asset quality challenges alongside banks, mainly private banks, intending to bring down their LDRs to a balanced level.We expect the bank under our coverage to deliver ~11% YoY credit growth, marginally ahead of industry growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)

India

Federal Bank Limited operates branches and regional offices throughout India. The Bank offers a wide range of financial services, including merchant banking, international banking and foreign exchange, leasing facilities, money markets and agricultural advances. The Bank also provides lending for hi-tech agricultural and government sponsored schemes.

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Federal Bank (FB IN)

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Ready for the Rally with Tactical Low-Cost Options

A bullish technical setup for HDFC Bank offers potential upside, with long call option strategies favored amid historically low implied volatility.

Gaudenz Schneider

Leveraged Financials: Transmission Underway, Searching for Growth Catalysts

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its latest monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, maintained status quo on policy rates while also retaining...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Federal Bank, Stylam Industries

Federal Bank’s (FB) Q1FY26 earnings missed our estimates, owing to elevated provisioning towards the MFI portfolio, coupled with muted growth on...

HDFC Securities

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)

The systemic credit growth (as of 13th June, 2025) has derailed to <10%. This can be attributed to a meaningful slowdown in the unsecured loans...

Axis Direct

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