Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Fugro | nominates Mr. Emiel Jongerius as new CFO • E-commerce & Logistics | French customs data show 30-40% drop in low-value non-EU parcels • Dutch retail sales | consumer demand remained resilient in July • Dutch CPI | rose to 3.3% YoY in August</li></ul>

In this edition: • Fugro | nominates Mr. Emiel Jongerius as new CFO • E-commerce & Logistics | French customs data show 30-40% drop in low-value non-EU parcels • Dutch retail sales | consumer demand remained resilient in July • Dutch CPI | rose to 3.3% YoY in August

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>H126 revenue up 6%, but EBITDA margin softened by around 50 bps versus H125</li>
<li>We believe higher fuel costs and a change in revenue mix explain margin compression</li>
<li>SF Hldg: cheap, but absent a potential boost from lower fuel, near-term seems unexciting</li>
</ul>


H126 revenue up 6%, but EBITDA margin softened by around 50 bps versus H125
We believe higher fuel costs and a change in revenue mix explain margin compression
SF Hldg: cheap, but absent a potential boost from lower fuel, near-term seems unexciting


SF Holding H126: Revenue up 6% Y/Y, but EBITDA Margin Down on Rising Fuel Costs, Changing Mix

<ul><li>In this edition: • InPost | take-private case strengthens as public-market constraints tighten • Bnode | prioritizes own Bbox network over 3rd party PUDOs in parcel last-mile</li></ul>

In this edition: • InPost | take-private case strengthens as public-market constraints tighten • Bnode | prioritizes own Bbox network over 3rd party PUDOs in parcel last-mile

bpost SA - What's News in Amsterdam - 31 August (InPost | Bnode)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The scale of fraud in a new US federal criminal complaint – US$60M of fake postage – mirrors the recent dramatic growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms that target US consumers</li>
<li>The case also highlights the importance of securing cheap last-mile US distribution for the Chinese e-commerce platforms selling inexpensive goods directly to US consumers</li>
<li>It’s unclear which of the Chinese platforms benefited from the scheme, but the incident should refocus investors’ attention on logistics as a critical piece of their business models </li>
</ul>


The scale of fraud in a new US federal criminal complaint – US$60M of fake postage – mirrors the recent dramatic growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms that target US consumers
The case also highlights the importance of securing cheap last-mile US distribution for the Chinese e-commerce platforms selling inexpensive goods directly to US consumers
It’s unclear which of the Chinese platforms benefited from the scheme, but the incident should refocus investors’ attention on logistics as a critical piece of their business models 


The Curious Case of $60M of Bogus US Postage or 'How Can They Can Make Money Exporting $5 Shirts?!'

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Recently we revisited the SHEIN vs Amazon shopping comparison we first tried in Dec 2023</li>
<li>For the items we purchased 17 months ago, total cost at AMZN was largely unchanged</li>
<li>But at SHEIN, those items almost <em>tripled</em> in cost, still feature slow transits, difficult returns</li>
</ul>


Recently we revisited the SHEIN vs Amazon shopping comparison we first tried in Dec 2023
For the items we purchased 17 months ago, total cost at AMZN was largely unchanged
But at SHEIN, those items almost tripled in cost, still feature slow transits, difficult returns


SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

United States

FedEx Corp. delivers packages and freight to multiple countries and territories through an integrated global network.  The Company provides worldwide express delivery, ground small-parcel delivery, less-than-truckload freight delivery, supply chain management services, customs brokerage services, and trade facilitation and electronic commerce solutions.

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FedEx Corp (FDX US)

Fugro NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Fugro | nominates Mr. Emiel Jongerius as new CFO • E-commerce & Logistics | French customs data show 30-40% drop in...

The IDEA!

SF Holding H126: Revenue up 6% Y/Y, but EBITDA Margin Down on Rising Fuel Costs, Changing Mix

SF Holding's H126 results were uninspiring, with Revenue climbing 6% but margins falling vs H125. We believe high fuel costs and changing sales mix...

Tracking Traffic

bpost SA - What's News in Amsterdam - 31 August (InPost | Bnode)

In this edition: • InPost | take-private case strengthens as public-market constraints tighten • Bnode | prioritizes own Bbox network over 3rd...

The IDEA!

The Curious Case of $60M of Bogus US Postage or 'How Can They Can Make Money Exporting $5 Shirts?!'

Thie story of fake US postage being used to distribute Chinese goods to US consumers isn't just a fascinating story -- it could potentially have...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

Now that fast fashion giant SHEIN has finally filed offering documents in Hong Kong, we believe it's a good time to revisit the company's evolution...

Tracking Traffic

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