Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices have remained rock-solid at 104 USD/ton, but the fundamentals are on slightly shaky ground as <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO US)</a> commenced shipments from its Simandou project. </li>
<li>Chinese steel production and apparent demand in October tracked an extremely weak 12%/12.5% YoY, with annualized production rates now 864 million tons, and lending (TSF) was lacklustre at -42% YoY.</li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> despite the negative sentiment, due to its production growth profile from 4 million to 10 million tons over the next 3 years. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices have remained rock-solid at 104 USD/ton, but the fundamentals are on slightly shaky ground as Rio Tinto (RIO US) commenced shipments from its Simandou project. 
Chinese steel production and apparent demand in October tracked an extremely weak 12%/12.5% YoY, with annualized production rates now 864 million tons, and lending (TSF) was lacklustre at -42% YoY.
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) despite the negative sentiment, due to its production growth profile from 4 million to 10 million tons over the next 3 years. 


Iron Ore At 104 USD/Ton: Where To Now With Simandou Online? Still Like Fenix, Others Fairly Valued

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> has pulled back 25% from its recent highs, as iron ore prices have fallen 6% from their highs, <a href="https://www.mining.com/web/chinas-massive-african-mine-threatens-to-upend-iron-ore-market/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">amid the Simandou project nearing completion</a>. </li>
<li>Despite the negative sentiment, with steel mill margins hovering around -300 RMB/ton, we still see iron ore at 95-110 USD/ton, as China's imports were a record in September. </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> and are pounding the table on the name. Read our recent update, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-q1-fy26-report-multibagger-in-the-making" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206251" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q1 FY26 Report: Multibagger In The Making</a> </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has pulled back 25% from its recent highs, as iron ore prices have fallen 6% from their highs, amid the Simandou project nearing completion. 
Despite the negative sentiment, with steel mill margins hovering around -300 RMB/ton, we still see iron ore at 95-110 USD/ton, as China's imports were a record in September. 
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) and are pounding the table on the name. Read our recent update, Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q1 FY26 Report: Multibagger In The Making 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Pullback With Iron Ore Prices And Attractive Entry Point

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> has now rallied 110% ytd. Despite its recent rally, it still trades at 6.3x PE and 2.6x EV-EBITDA. </li>
<li>The company churned out 43.9 mn AUD (176 mn annualized ~2.1x OCF) of operating cash flow in Q1 FY26, even though its third mine was still not fully ramped up.  </li>
<li>We see quarterly cashflows in the vicinity of 55-58 mn AUD (220-230 mn AUD annually or 1.6x OCF) with its third mine Beebyn W11 fully ramped up. </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has now rallied 110% ytd. Despite its recent rally, it still trades at 6.3x PE and 2.6x EV-EBITDA. 
The company churned out 43.9 mn AUD (176 mn annualized ~2.1x OCF) of operating cash flow in Q1 FY26, even though its third mine was still not fully ramped up.  
We see quarterly cashflows in the vicinity of 55-58 mn AUD (220-230 mn AUD annually or 1.6x OCF) with its third mine Beebyn W11 fully ramped up. 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Still A Double At Least Despite >100% Rally

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices rose 1.3% WoW to 106 USD/ton but underperformed the solid performance of the commodities complex, which grew close to 2% WoW.</li>
<li>With the investigation into the <a href="https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-prices-hit-over-one-week-high-as-rio-tinto-suspends-work-at-simandou/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">13 deaths at Rio's Simandou project construction and suspension of operations since August 24th</a>, supply concerns surrounding its commencement are deepening (read details in insight). </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> and are pounding the table on the name. Read our recent update, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-exciting-value-adding-catalyst-can-triple-production-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200341" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again</a>. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices rose 1.3% WoW to 106 USD/ton but underperformed the solid performance of the commodities complex, which grew close to 2% WoW.
With the investigation into the 13 deaths at Rio's Simandou project construction and suspension of operations since August 24th, supply concerns surrounding its commencement are deepening (read details in insight). 
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) and are pounding the table on the name. Read our recent update, Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again. 


Iron Ore At 106 USD/Ton: Simandou Uncertainties To Risk Supply, Fenix, The Beneficiary

<ul>
<li>The BHP-China dispute seeks to revert to pre-2010 contractual norms, but we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>  has the advantage, given its market position and strategic leverage.</li>
<li>Investigations into the<a href="https://www.mining.com/fatal-accident-forces-winning-to-halt-iron-ore-mine-at-simandou/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> accident at Simandou</a> are underway, and the mine remains shut with no progress on construction until the issue is resolved. </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> and are bullish on the name. Read our recent update, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-exciting-value-adding-catalyst-can-triple-production-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200341" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again</a>. </li>
</ul>


The BHP-China dispute seeks to revert to pre-2010 contractual norms, but we believe BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)  has the advantage, given its market position and strategic leverage.
Investigations into the accident at Simandou are underway, and the mine remains shut with no progress on construction until the issue is resolved. 
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) and are bullish on the name. Read our recent update, Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again. 


On The BHP-China Impasse: Iron Ore Will Continue To Be Over 100 USD/Ton

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Iron Ore At 104 USD/Ton: Where To Now With Simandou Online? Still Like Fenix, Others Fairly Valued

We look at the recent drivers of the negative sentiment on stocks in the iron ore space, namely the weak lending numbers in China and the steel...

Sameer Taneja