Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation

While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ferguson's recent financial results reflect a blend of strategic growth and market-driven challenges.</li>
<li>The company reported fourth-quarter sales of $8.5 billion, marking a 6.9% increase year-over-year.</li>
<li>This growth was supported by a 5.8% organic increase and additional revenue from acquisitions.</li>
</ul>


Ferguson's recent financial results reflect a blend of strategic growth and market-driven challenges.
The company reported fourth-quarter sales of $8.5 billion, marking a 6.9% increase year-over-year.
This growth was supported by a 5.8% organic increase and additional revenue from acquisitions.


Ferguson Plc: Can Its Data Center Boom Fuel the Next Wave of Industrial Growth?

<ul>
<li>Ferguson plc's latest financial results present a mixed picture, reflecting both strategic progress and ongoing challenges.</li>
<li>The company reported a 3% increase in net sales to $6.9 billion for the second quarter, despite contending with 2% commodity-led deflation.</li>
<li>Organic revenue contributed 2.1%, with an additional 1.2% growth from acquisitions.</li>
</ul>


Ferguson plc's latest financial results present a mixed picture, reflecting both strategic progress and ongoing challenges.
The company reported a 3% increase in net sales to $6.9 billion for the second quarter, despite contending with 2% commodity-led deflation.
Organic revenue contributed 2.1%, with an additional 1.2% growth from acquisitions.


FERG LN: Will Its Adapting to Market Dynamics & Deflationary Pressures Support Sustainable Margin...

US/Europe Event-Driven Analyst

John DeMasi

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferguson-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28304:1" rel="noopener">Ferguson PLC (FERG LN)</a> is a UK-listed, FTSE 100 distributor of plumbing and heating products in the USA, Canada, and the UK. In the latest fiscal year ended July 31, 2019, the UK accounted for only about 10.2% of revenues and about 4% of trading profits, with the balance coming mainly from the USA, and to a much smaller extent, from Canada.Despite the Company’s predominant focus in the USA, it has traditionally traded at the more modest multiples of British distributors. On June 13, 2019, U.S. activist investment firm Trian Fund Management announced it had acquired a 5.98% position in FERG LN though affiliates including T1F LN, then worth approximately £736 million.Trian stated it believes Ferguson is an attractive business that trades at a discount to comparable U.S. peers. It also said it looks forward to working with Ferguson’s management to explore and implement initiatives that it believes can create long-term shareholder value.This research piece looks, from an event-driven point of view, at Ferguson’s business, valuation and potential catalyst to address any undervaluation.

Ferguson PLC (FERG LN) is a UK-listed, FTSE 100 distributor of plumbing and heating products in the USA, Canada, and the UK. In the latest fiscal year ended July 31, 2019, the UK accounted for only about 10.2% of revenues and about 4% of trading profits, with the balance coming mainly from the USA, and to a much smaller extent, from Canada.Despite the Company’s predominant focus in the USA, it has traditionally traded at the more modest multiples of British distributors. On June 13, 2019, U.S. activist investment firm Trian Fund Management announced it had acquired a 5.98% position in FERG LN though affiliates including T1F LN, then worth approximately £736 million.Trian stated it believes Ferguson is an attractive business that trades at a discount to comparable U.S. peers. It also said it looks forward to working with Ferguson’s management to explore and implement initiatives that it believes can create long-term shareholder value.This research piece looks, from an event-driven point of view, at Ferguson’s business, valuation and potential catalyst to address any undervaluation.

Ferguson Plc (FERG LN) – Plumbing for Value

United States

Ferguson PLC distributes HVAC and industrial supplies. The Company offers products for heating and ventilation, fabrication, facilities supply, and residential construction. Ferguson serves customers in North America.

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Ferguson (FERG LN)

Cautiously Optimistic on Global Equities

We are constructive on global equities and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy:

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This...

Vermilion Research

Ferguson Plc: Can Its Data Center Boom Fuel the Next Wave of Industrial Growth?

Ferguson's recent financial results reflect a blend of strategic growth and market-driven challenges. The company reported fourth-quarter sales of...

Baptista Research

FERG LN: Will Its Adapting to Market Dynamics & Deflationary Pressures Support Sustainable Margin...

The company reported a 3% increase in net sales to $6.9 billion for the second quarter, despite contending with 2% commodity-led deflation.

Baptista Research

Ferguson Plc (FERG LN) – Plumbing for Value

Ferguson PLC (FERG LN) is a UK-listed, FTSE 100 distributor of plumbing and heating products in the USA, Canada, and the UK. In the latest fiscal...

John DeMasi

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