Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrari-n-v" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21010:1" rel="noopener">Ferrari N.V. (RACE US)</a> continued its stellar quarterlies, showing no signs of a slowdown, with Q4 2023 revenue/profits increasing 11.3%/34% YoY.</li>
<li>FY24 will see the newly launched Purosangue become 20% of the product mix, and personalization trends continue with a mid-single-digit price hike. Ferrari Lifestyle brand will continue strong growth.</li>
<li>Trading at 48x/41x FY24e/25e, the stock seems expensive, but growth at a &gt;25% ROCE seems highly probable in the not-to-distant future.</li>
</ul>



Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) continued its stellar quarterlies, showing no signs of a slowdown, with Q4 2023 revenue/profits increasing 11.3%/34% YoY.
FY24 will see the newly launched Purosangue become 20% of the product mix, and personalization trends continue with a mid-single-digit price hike. Ferrari Lifestyle brand will continue strong growth.
Trading at 48x/41x FY24e/25e, the stock seems expensive, but growth at a &gt;25% ROCE seems highly probable in the not-to-distant future.


Ferrari Q4 2023: Just Killing It! No Slowdown in Ultra High-End Luxury

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrari-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24708:1" rel="noopener">Ferrari NV (RACE IM)</a> has been a steady compounder of earnings growing operating profits at 14% CAGR and sales volumes at 6% CAGR over the last 20 years. </li>
<li>The company has expanded EBITDA margins from 25% in 2014 to 35% in 2022 and is expected to increase by another 300 bps in FY23 to 38%, as per guidance. </li>
<li>At 41x/35x FY23e/FY24e, we conceded it is a tad expensive, but we would look at investing in this company over the long term.</li>
</ul>



Ferrari NV (RACE IM) has been a steady compounder of earnings growing operating profits at 14% CAGR and sales volumes at 6% CAGR over the last 20 years. 
The company has expanded EBITDA margins from 25% in 2014 to 35% in 2022 and is expected to increase by another 300 bps in FY23 to 38%, as per guidance. 
At 41x/35x FY23e/FY24e, we conceded it is a tad expensive, but we would look at investing in this company over the long term.


Ferrari: Classic Fisher Company, Almost Perfect Score on The Fisher 15 Framework

<ul>
<li>In our prior insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ferrari-classic-fisher-company-almost-perfect-score-on-the-fisher-15-framework" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:101331" rel="noopener">Ferrari: Classic Fisher Company, Almost Perfect Score on The Fisher 15 Framework</a>, we talked about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrari-n-v" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21010:1" rel="noopener">Ferrari N.V. (RACE US)</a> being a classic Fisher company.</li>
<li>Q2 2023 (a quarter with 14% revenue growth/34% profit growth) showed the execution runway (order book/product mix) is tremendous, and over the long term, value can be created.</li>
<li>In the short term, though, trading at 46x/40x FY23e/FY24e despite upping its guidance, there could be a case to queue up for a more favorable entry price. </li>
</ul>


In our prior insight Ferrari: Classic Fisher Company, Almost Perfect Score on The Fisher 15 Framework, we talked about Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) being a classic Fisher company.
Q2 2023 (a quarter with 14% revenue growth/34% profit growth) showed the execution runway (order book/product mix) is tremendous, and over the long term, value can be created.
In the short term, though, trading at 46x/40x FY23e/FY24e despite upping its guidance, there could be a case to queue up for a more favorable entry price. 


Ferrari (RACE US) Q2 2023: The Perfect Fisher Framework Stock That Keeps Executing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrari-n-v" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21010:1" rel="noopener">Ferrari N.V. (RACE US)</a> had a stellar Q3 2023 with 23.5%/45% YoY overall revenue and profit growth, beating analyst estimates and conservatively upping guidance by 2-3%. </li>
<li>Despite volumes growing only 8.5% YoY, car revenues grew 26% YoY, highlighting strong trends in personalization (at 19%) and pricing, with the current order book full.</li>
<li>Valuations are rich at 45x/39x FY23e/24e PE, but there seems to be a clear path to 20% YoY growth at over 25% ROCEs. </li>
</ul>



Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) had a stellar Q3 2023 with 23.5%/45% YoY overall revenue and profit growth, beating analyst estimates and conservatively upping guidance by 2-3%. 
Despite volumes growing only 8.5% YoY, car revenues grew 26% YoY, highlighting strong trends in personalization (at 19%) and pricing, with the current order book full.
Valuations are rich at 45x/39x FY23e/24e PE, but there seems to be a clear path to 20% YoY growth at over 25% ROCEs. 


Ferrari (RACE US) The Classic Fisher Stock Q3 2023: Stellar, No Slowdown Here

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The September 2023 index changes for the ES50 index was confirmed after the close on Friday 1st September 2023.</li>
<li>There will be two ADDs and two DELETEs. One set of changes was well anticipated by us. The other set comes as a major surprise to us.</li>
<li>Collectively, the two ADDs could see ~US$2.4bn index flows and the two DELs could see ~US$2.9bn index flows, with US$500mm of reverse funding flows.</li>
</ul>


The September 2023 index changes for the ES50 index was confirmed after the close on Friday 1st September 2023.
There will be two ADDs and two DELETEs. One set of changes was well anticipated by us. The other set comes as a major surprise to us.
Collectively, the two ADDs could see ~US$2.4bn index flows and the two DELs could see ~US$2.9bn index flows, with US$500mm of reverse funding flows.


Quiddity ES50 Sep 23 Rebal: Ferrari/Vonovia Change Confirmed + Another US$2bn+ Flow Surprise!

Italy

Ferrari NV designs and manufactures sports cars. The Company offers new and used vehicles, warranty programs, financial supports, and maintenance, as well as watches, apparels, earphones, caps, and other accessories. Ferrari markets its products worldwide.

Ferrari NV (RACE IM)

Ferrari Q4 2023: Just Killing It! No Slowdown in Ultra High-End Luxury

Trading at 48x/41x FY24e/25e, Ferrari is expensive, but growth of 10-15% at >25% ROCE + margin accretion will aid the company in holding on to its...

Sameer Taneja

Ferrari: Classic Fisher Company, Almost Perfect Score on The Fisher 15 Framework

Ferrari is a classic Fisher stock. We analyze Ferrari based on the Fisher 15 criteria and find that it meets almost all criteria, implying it could...

Sameer Taneja

Ferrari (RACE US) Q2 2023: The Perfect Fisher Framework Stock That Keeps Executing

Ferrari is a classic Fisher stock with execution par excellence (long-term ROCE > 20%) and EBITDA margins trending at 40%. We provide constructive...

Sameer Taneja

Ferrari (RACE US) The Classic Fisher Stock Q3 2023: Stellar, No Slowdown Here

Valuations for Ferrari (RACE US) may be rich at 45x PE FY23e, but with 15-20% CAGR growth, pricing power, superior margins, and ROIC and brand...

Sameer Taneja

Quiddity ES50 Sep 23 Rebal: Ferrari/Vonovia Change Confirmed + Another US$2bn+ Flow Surprise!

I would look to go SHORT Saint-Gobain vs peers during the Inclusion event especially if Saint-Gobain sharply outperforms peers between now and the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA