European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nasdaq-100 inclusion confirmed, effective Dec 22, moving the thesis from probability to outcome and validating Ferrovial’s U.S.-centric infrastructure positioning.</li>
<li>Index inclusion should drive about $315m of passive inflows, supporting near-term demand and delivering longer-lasting benefits through improved liquidity, spreads, and U.S. investor coverage.</li>
<li>Beyond the index event, value creation remains tied to U.S. managed lanes and the JFK New Terminal One, underpinning durable EBITDA growth through 2027.</li>
</ul>


Nasdaq-100 inclusion confirmed, effective Dec 22, moving the thesis from probability to outcome and validating Ferrovial’s U.S.-centric infrastructure positioning.
Index inclusion should drive about $315m of passive inflows, supporting near-term demand and delivering longer-lasting benefits through improved liquidity, spreads, and U.S. investor coverage.
Beyond the index event, value creation remains tied to U.S. managed lanes and the JFK New Terminal One, underpinning durable EBITDA growth through 2027.


Ferrovial: Nasdaq-100 Inclusion Confirmed – From Probability to Outcome

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.</li>
<li>We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.
We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.


MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In 2025, Singapore hotels focus on moderation in their practices to adapt to changing market conditions.</li>
<li>DBS selects CapitaLand Ascott Trust as its top choice, indicating confidence in the property trust's performance.</li>
<li>Despite concerns about a potential property market bubble, DBS believes calls for cooling measures in Singapore are premature.</li>
</ul>


In 2025, Singapore hotels focus on moderation in their practices to adapt to changing market conditions.
DBS selects CapitaLand Ascott Trust as its top choice, indicating confidence in the property trust's performance.
Despite concerns about a potential property market bubble, DBS believes calls for cooling measures in Singapore are premature.


Singapore Market Roundup (18-Dec-2024): KGI rates Elite UK REIT 'outperform', target price 37p.

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A holistic view of the three different documents here suggests the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> buyback, indeed, "It was a trap".</li>
<li>3D Investment Partners raised its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a>,  suggesting the activist investor is optimistic about successfully advancing their proposals.</li>
<li>A firm merger proposal is expected for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a> in the next couple of weeks. Time to buy.</li>
</ul>


A holistic view of the three different documents here suggests the Denso Corp (6902 JP) buyback, indeed, "It was a trap".
3D Investment Partners raised its stake in Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP),  suggesting the activist investor is optimistic about successfully advancing their proposals.
A firm merger proposal is expected for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) in the next couple of weeks. Time to buy.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

Spain

Ferrovial SE is a global operator of sustainable infrastructure. The Company specializes in construction, promotion, investment, and operation of toll roads, airports, electrical transmission networks, water treatment plants, and other infrastructures. Ferrovial serves customers worldwide.

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Ferrovial (FER SM)

Ferrovial: Nasdaq-100 Inclusion Confirmed – From Probability to Outcome

Ferrovial’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion is confirmed for Dec 22, validating its U.S.-centric strategy and likely triggering ~$315m passive inflows, with...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

Singapore Market Roundup (18-Dec-2024): KGI rates Elite UK REIT 'outperform', target price 37p.

In 2025, Singapore hotels practice moderation while DBS selects CapitaLand Ascott Trust as top pick and deems calls for cooling measures in...

Singapore Market Roundup

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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