Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Macroeconomics

<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li>Outperformance of Metals and Mining sector: The fund's gold, copper, and lithium investments outperformed their respective industry performance.</li><li>Interesting trends in the gold market: We examine gold prices and propose a shift from wealth-driven to fear-driven consumption patterns. We also identify several events that could reduce fear and slow gold price momentum.</li><li>The evolving situation at OCI: The fund holds a 6% position in OCI, a global fertilizer business that announced two significant asset sales in December 2023, from which we expect to receive a substantial capital return in 2024.</li></ul></div>

Outperformance of Metals and Mining sector: The fund's gold, copper, and lithium investments outperformed their respective industry performance.Interesting trends in the gold market: We examine gold prices and propose a shift from wealth-driven to fear-driven consumption patterns. We also identify several events that could reduce fear and slow gold price momentum.The evolving situation at OCI: The fund holds a 6% position in OCI, a global fertilizer business that announced two significant asset sales in December 2023, from which we expect to receive a substantial capital return in 2024.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), International Securities

International Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

International Securities’ equity research analysis and advisory have been a vital source of market intelligence for our distinguished clients over the years. The equity research team’s main objective is to cover listed equities and to provide thoughtful, insightful, differentiated and timely research that can help clients make informed decisions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We expect ADNOC Drilling to post 4Q23e profits of USD263mn, up 2% QoQ and 13% YoY.</li>
<li>Our 4Q23e result would take FY23e profit to USD967mn, up 21% YoY and towards the high end of the management’s guided range of USD850mnUSD1bn.</li>
<li>We expect total rig count to reach 129 rigs, compared to 124 rigs and 115 rigs in 3Q23 and 4Q22, respectively.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


We expect ADNOC Drilling to post 4Q23e profits of USD263mn, up 2% QoQ and 13% YoY.
Our 4Q23e result would take FY23e profit to USD967mn, up 21% YoY and towards the high end of the management’s guided range of USD850mnUSD1bn.
We expect total rig count to reach 129 rigs, compared to 124 rigs and 115 rigs in 3Q23 and 4Q22, respectively.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Fertiglobe posted 1Q25 adjusted attributable profit of USD73mn, up 313%% YoY (+73% QoQ)</li><li>The result was in line with our estimates where the higher-than-expected gross profits were offset by higher-than-expected non-controlling interest component</li><li>1Q25 benefited from 11% higher YoY sales led by company’s decision to strategically defer 239kt sales from4Q24 to 1Q25</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fertiglobe posted 1Q25 adjusted attributable profit of USD73mn, up 313%% YoY (+73% QoQ)The result was in line with our estimates where the higher-than-expected gross profits were offset by higher-than-expected non-controlling interest component1Q25 benefited from 11% higher YoY sales led by company’s decision to strategically defer 239kt sales from4Q24 to 1Q25Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fertiglobe - 1Q25 core attributable profit up 313% (+73% QoQ) to USD73mn; within estimates

<ul><li>Fertiglobe posted 1Q25 adjusted attributable profit of USD73mn, up 313%% YoY (+73% QoQ)</li><li>The result was in line with our estimates where the higher-than-expected gross profits were offset by higher-than-expected non-controlling interest component</li><li>1Q25 benefited from 11% higher YoY sales led by company’s decision to strategically defer 239kt sales from4Q24 to 1Q25</li><li>Fertiglobe also unveiled its Grow 2030 Strategy with management targeting an EBITDA of USD1bn by 2030 backed by four strategic pillars. We maintain Buy recommendation and will be revising our estimates soon following latest guidance</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fertiglobe posted 1Q25 adjusted attributable profit of USD73mn, up 313%% YoY (+73% QoQ)The result was in line with our estimates where the higher-than-expected gross profits were offset by higher-than-expected non-controlling interest component1Q25 benefited from 11% higher YoY sales led by company’s decision to strategically defer 239kt sales from4Q24 to 1Q25Fertiglobe also unveiled its Grow 2030 Strategy with management targeting an EBITDA of USD1bn by 2030 backed by four strategic pillars. We maintain Buy recommendation and will be revising our estimates soon following latest guidanceContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fertiglobe - 1Q25 Core Attributable Profit up 313% (+73% QoQ) To USD73mn

<ul><li>Fertiglobe posted 4Q24 adjusted attributable profit of USD42mn, down 59% YoY (+35% QoQ). The board recommended 2H24 dividend of AED0.055 per share.</li><li>The result was higher than our estimates, mainly due to adjustment in noncontrolling stake. On profit before tax Fertiglobe posted USD54mn, in line with our estimates.</li><li>4Q24 sales volumes were impacted by turnarounds and the strategic deferral of several shipments (239kt) to early 2025</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fertiglobe posted 4Q24 adjusted attributable profit of USD42mn, down 59% YoY (+35% QoQ). The board recommended 2H24 dividend of AED0.055 per share.The result was higher than our estimates, mainly due to adjustment in noncontrolling stake. On profit before tax Fertiglobe posted USD54mn, in line with our estimates.4Q24 sales volumes were impacted by turnarounds and the strategic deferral of several shipments (239kt) to early 2025Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fertiglobe - 4Q24 Adjusted Attributable Profit Down 59% YoY (+35% QoQ) To USD42mn

United Arab Emirates

Fertiglobe plc operates as an export-focused nitrogen fertilizer platform. The Company offers a range of nitrogen products serving agricultural and industrial customers around the world.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fertiglobe plc (FERTIGLB UH)

1st Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

Outperformance of Metals and Mining sector: The fund's gold, copper, and lithium investments outperformed their respective industry...

Massif Capital Research

4Q23 Quarterly Result Previews

Our 4Q23e result would take FY23e profit to USD967mn, up 21% YoY and towards the high end of the management’s guided range of USD850mnUSD1bn.

International Securities

Fertiglobe - 1Q25 core attributable profit up 313% (+73% QoQ) to USD73mn; within estimates

The result was in line with our estimates where the higher-than-expected gross profits were offset by higher-than-expected non-controlling interest...

International Securities

Fertiglobe - 1Q25 Core Attributable Profit up 313% (+73% QoQ) To USD73mn

The result was in line with our estimates where the higher-than-expected gross profits were offset by higher-than-expected non-controlling interest...

International Securities

Fertiglobe - 4Q24 Adjusted Attributable Profit Down 59% YoY (+35% QoQ) To USD42mn

Fertiglobe posted 4Q24 adjusted attributable profit of USD42mn, down 59% YoY (+35% QoQ). The board recommended 2H24 dividend of AED0.055 per share.

International Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)