Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's Total Social Financing (TSF) saw a 22% YoY rise, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.</li>
<li>COMEX spreads rose above 1200 USD/ton, while Yangshan premiums climbed to 90 USD/ton, reinforcing our positive outlook on copper prices.</li>
<li>Positive Q1 FY25 results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>, <a target="_blank">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>, and <a target="_blank">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>'s positive production update have set the tone for a bullish copper outlook.</li>
</ul>


China's Total Social Financing (TSF) saw a 22% YoY rise, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
COMEX spreads rose above 1200 USD/ton, while Yangshan premiums climbed to 90 USD/ton, reinforcing our positive outlook on copper prices.
Positive Q1 FY25 results from Southern Copper (SCCO US), First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)'s positive production update have set the tone for a bullish copper outlook.


Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a> reported their Q1 results, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> reported their first quarter updates. </li>
<li>Due to the base effect, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> first-quarter production numbers looked strong, with copper/gold production coming in at 20%/29% YoY.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a> production was down by 2% YoY, but was expected as the company has lower production from the Sentinel mine.</li>
</ul>



First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) reported their Q1 results, and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) reported their first quarter updates. 
Due to the base effect, Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) first-quarter production numbers looked strong, with copper/gold production coming in at 20%/29% YoY.

First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) production was down by 2% YoY, but was expected as the company has lower production from the Sentinel mine.


Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul><li>Boss Energy has acquired a stake in Laramide, filling a gap in their listed investments</li><li>Laramide's flagship asset is the Westmoreland Uranium project in Queensland, with potential in New Mexico as well</li><li>Boss Energy's acquisitions suggest a shift in narrative towards exploring potential projects beyond just production</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Boss Energy has acquired a stake in Laramide, filling a gap in their listed investmentsLaramide's flagship asset is the Westmoreland Uranium project in Queensland, with potential in New Mexico as wellBoss Energy's acquisitions suggest a shift in narrative towards exploring potential projects beyond just productionThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Have investors overblown Cobre Panama’s risk?

<ul>
<li>After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).</li>
<li>Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (&gt;1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week's global demand. </li>
<li>With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system's high inventories. </li>
</ul>


After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).
Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (&gt;1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week's global demand. 
With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system's high inventories. 


Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies

<ul>
<li>Potentially damaging negative news has emerged in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> that could possibly result in the suspension of its mine or a review of conditions on the lease agreement.</li>
<li>Prime Minister's Order No. 32 established a Working Group to assess the mining license for the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit and review earlier parliamentary and government resolutions.</li>
<li>As the issue has become political, we are unsure about the outcome of this review and would stay on the sidelines until a firm resolution is reached. </li>
</ul>


Potentially damaging negative news has emerged in Mongolian Mining (975 HK) that could possibly result in the suspension of its mine or a review of conditions on the lease agreement.
Prime Minister's Order No. 32 established a Working Group to assess the mining license for the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit and review earlier parliamentary and government resolutions.
As the issue has become political, we are unsure about the outcome of this review and would stay on the sidelines until a firm resolution is reached. 


Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Left Field Negative Catalyst

Canada

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. explores for, mines, and produces copper cathode, copper in concentrate, and gold.  The Company also produces sulfuric acid.

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First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)

Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data

We maintain a bullish stance on copper, as China's March TSF data suggests a push for more stimulus. Additionally, rising COMEX spreads and the...

Sameer Taneja

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates

We provide updates from the Q1 operational update of Antofagasta (ANTO LN) and Q1 FY25 results of First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), both of which are...

Sameer Taneja

Have investors overblown Cobre Panama’s risk?

Boss Energy has acquired a stake in Laramide, filling a gap in their listed investments Laramide's flagship asset is the Westmoreland Uranium...

Money of Mine

Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies

We compile mine production plans for 12 major copper producers, which account for more than 40% of the refined copper produced. We also analyze the...

Sameer Taneja

Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Left Field Negative Catalyst

Read this insight to understand the implications of Mongolia's mining sector developments, including government actions on the Tavan Tolgoi coal...

Sameer Taneja

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