Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The measures taken by the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury do not protect against idiosyncratic bank runs like the one that hit First Republic Bank.</li>
<li>Big Tech is beating big time, but earnings and sales growth have declined significantly in recent quarters, while valuation increased.</li>
<li>Should volatility spike, which is definitely on the table, Systematic Macro investors will have to sell up to USD 300 billion in equities.</li>
</ul>


The measures taken by the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury do not protect against idiosyncratic bank runs like the one that hit First Republic Bank.
Big Tech is beating big time, but earnings and sales growth have declined significantly in recent quarters, while valuation increased.
Should volatility spike, which is definitely on the table, Systematic Macro investors will have to sell up to USD 300 billion in equities.


Weekly Market Monitor (17) - Banking Anxiety – Back with a Vengeance!

<ul>
<li>Positioning has been one of the few positives for equities in recent weeks, but a storm is brewing.</li>
<li>Systematic Macro investors have been absorbing USD 170 billion in global equities in recent weeks for just one reason, volatility.</li>
<li>Should equities drop to their October lows, our charts suggest volatility-related equity selling pressure of USD 300 billion. We remain underweight equities.</li>
</ul>


Positioning has been one of the few positives for equities in recent weeks, but a storm is brewing.
Systematic Macro investors have been absorbing USD 170 billion in global equities in recent weeks for just one reason, volatility.
Should equities drop to their October lows, our charts suggest volatility-related equity selling pressure of USD 300 billion. We remain underweight equities.


Systematic Macro Investors Represent USD 300 Billion in Selling Pressure!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well.</li>
<li>At the moment, all banks are trading below their 52w highs – some more notably than others (median -25.82%).</li>
<li>Deposit flights are driven by the inverted yield curve and particularly regional banks are vulnerable to it.</li>
</ul>


Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well.
At the moment, all banks are trading below their 52w highs – some more notably than others (median -25.82%).
Deposit flights are driven by the inverted yield curve and particularly regional banks are vulnerable to it.


Equity Watch: Fire-Sale or Outright Fire in US Bank Stocks

<ul>
<li>A concise overview of the latest developments in the unfolding banking crisis and the surprise central bank intervention following them.</li>
<li>Three key reasons equities markets did not collapse: 1) LIQUIDITY, 2) ECB, 3) The Outlier Narrative.</li>
<li>Other Macro data not to be overlooked and our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index moved away(!) from Fear this week.</li>
</ul>


A concise overview of the latest developments in the unfolding banking crisis and the surprise central bank intervention following them.
Three key reasons equities markets did not collapse: 1) LIQUIDITY, 2) ECB, 3) The Outlier Narrative.
Other Macro data not to be overlooked and our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index moved away(!) from Fear this week.


Weekly Market Monitor (10) - Central Banks Intervene to Fight Contagion Risks

<ul>
<li>The (equity) risk premium for banks (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-s-p-bank-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32764:1" rel="noopener">SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (KBE US))</a> will go up while bank profitability will go down. There will be questions about smaller bank regulations.</li>
<li>Startups and smaller tech funds will struggle, potentially resulting in a lower valuation of the entire technology space (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-us-technology-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32856:1" rel="noopener">iShares US Technology ETF (IYW US)).</a>
</li>
<li>Unless the Bank Term Funding Program does not solve the liquidity issues, the Federal Reserve must continue raising rates, forcing another standoff with markets (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-s-p-500-etf-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:763:1" rel="noopener">SPDR S&amp;P 500 (SPY US))</a> .</li>
</ul>


The (equity) risk premium for banks (SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (KBE US)) will go up while bank profitability will go down. There will be questions about smaller bank regulations.
Startups and smaller tech funds will struggle, potentially resulting in a lower valuation of the entire technology space (iShares US Technology ETF (IYW US)).

Unless the Bank Term Funding Program does not solve the liquidity issues, the Federal Reserve must continue raising rates, forcing another standoff with markets (SPDR S&amp;P 500 (SPY US)) .


Silicon Valley Bank: Some Observations on Contagion, Moral Hazard, and Monetary Policy

United States

First Republic Bank and its subsidiaries provide private banking, private business banking and private wealth management in urban, coastal markets in the U.S. First Republic delivers relationship-based service by providing a single point of contact for all of its services.

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First Republic Bank (FRC US)

Weekly Market Monitor (17) - Banking Anxiety – Back with a Vengeance!

Welcome to the weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

Systematic Macro Investors Represent USD 300 Billion in Selling Pressure!

When volatility rises, as several indicators suggest, Systematic Macro investors will be forced to dump billions of stocks onto the market.

Jeroen Blokland

Equity Watch: Fire-Sale or Outright Fire in US Bank Stocks

Confidence in the US banking system has been under stress, and contagion struck Europe as well. The troubles have for now been backstopped, but is...

Steno Research

Weekly Market Monitor (10) - Central Banks Intervene to Fight Contagion Risks

The Weekly Monitor - Your weekly chart storm covering all major developments in Macro, Sentiment, and Valuation and their impact on Portfolio...

Jeroen Blokland

Silicon Valley Bank: Some Observations on Contagion, Moral Hazard, and Monetary Policy

After the US Treasury and Federal Reserve intervention, where are we now on contagion risk and monetary policy after the Silicon Valley Bank demise?

Jeroen Blokland

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Market Cap (USDm)

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