New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating on F&amp;P Healthcare (FPH) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM.</li><li>Our analysis suggests a large long-term opportunity in the anaesthesia market.</li><li>This reflects: (1) strong industry feedback, (2) large market size, and (3) current use case/body of clinical research, underpinning a solid market penetration ability (which we expect to grow through time). </li></ul>

We upgrade our rating on F&amp;P Healthcare (FPH) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM.Our analysis suggests a large long-term opportunity in the anaesthesia market.This reflects: (1) strong industry feedback, (2) large market size, and (3) current use case/body of clinical research, underpinning a solid market penetration ability (which we expect to grow through time). 

F&P Healthcare - The Next Big Thing; Upgrade to NEUTRAL

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cochlear-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:918:1" rel="noopener">Cochlear Ltd (COH AU)</a> shares rallied 30%+ over the last six months. Shares are trading at NTM P/E of 51.3x, versus other Australia-listed medical devices companies’ P/E of 23–32x.</li>
<li>The underlying business strength depicted by strong financial performance and guidance raise, and superior product offerings justify the pricey valuation.</li>
<li>Cochlear lifted FY24 net profit guidance to A$385–400M (+26–31% YoY) from A$355–375M. The company expects FY24 cochlear implant volume growth of 10–15% YoY.</li>
</ul>



Cochlear Ltd (COH AU) shares rallied 30%+ over the last six months. Shares are trading at NTM P/E of 51.3x, versus other Australia-listed medical devices companies’ P/E of 23–32x.
The underlying business strength depicted by strong financial performance and guidance raise, and superior product offerings justify the pricey valuation.
Cochlear lifted FY24 net profit guidance to A$385–400M (+26–31% YoY) from A$355–375M. The company expects FY24 cochlear implant volume growth of 10–15% YoY.


Cochlear Ltd (COH AU): Underlying Business Strength Justifies Superior Valuation

<ul><li>F&amp;P Healthcare's (FPH) revised FY24 underlying NPAT guidance range is +3% ahead of prior consensus, reflecting improving revenue trends.</li><li>FPH referenced stronger hospital consumables revenue, and importantly; (1) homecare revenue is tracking ahead of our prior expectations, and (2) underlying new apps trends remain constructive (helped by solid anaesthesia growth).</li><li>We walk away with increased comfort in the earnings outlook and view reaching FY25 consensus expectations in light of the implied homecare and new apps consumables revenue run rates as more achievable. </li></ul>

F&amp;P Healthcare's (FPH) revised FY24 underlying NPAT guidance range is +3% ahead of prior consensus, reflecting improving revenue trends.FPH referenced stronger hospital consumables revenue, and importantly; (1) homecare revenue is tracking ahead of our prior expectations, and (2) underlying new apps trends remain constructive (helped by solid anaesthesia growth).We walk away with increased comfort in the earnings outlook and view reaching FY25 consensus expectations in light of the implied homecare and new apps consumables revenue run rates as more achievable. 

<ul><li>F&amp;P Healthcare's (FPH) 2H24 revenue guidance and outlook commentary is for hospital consumables seasonality to be consistent with pre-COVID.</li><li>In light of recent respiratory patient data, along with port data, we see a low likelihood at this stage that FPH will materially exceed current consensus revenue expectations (noting that consensus revenue is already ~+1% ahead of guidance).</li><li>We retain our UNDERPERFORM rating, reflecting elevated valuation and concerns around the new apps consumables revenue growth required over the long term to justify the current share price.</li></ul>

F&amp;P Healthcare's (FPH) 2H24 revenue guidance and outlook commentary is for hospital consumables seasonality to be consistent with pre-COVID.In light of recent respiratory patient data, along with port data, we see a low likelihood at this stage that FPH will materially exceed current consensus revenue expectations (noting that consensus revenue is already ~+1% ahead of guidance).We retain our UNDERPERFORM rating, reflecting elevated valuation and concerns around the new apps consumables revenue growth required over the long term to justify the current share price.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gentrack-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2752:1" rel="noopener">Gentrack (GTK NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dorchester-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1854:1" rel="noopener">Turners Automotive (TRA NZ)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synlait-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16298:1" rel="noopener">Synlait Milk (SML NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-edge-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Edge (PEB NZ)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.</li>
<li>The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.</li>
</ul>



Gentrack (GTK NZ) and Turners Automotive (TRA NZ) will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while Synlait Milk (SML NZ) and Pacific Edge (PEB NZ) will be deleted.
There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.
The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.


S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

New Zealand

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited designs, manufactures and markets heated humidification products and systems for use in respiratory care and the treatment of sleep apnea.  The Company also offers patient warming and neonatal care products, including warming products and infant resuscitators.

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Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Cor (FPH AU)

F&P Healthcare - The Next Big Thing; Upgrade to NEUTRAL

We upgrade our rating on F&P Healthcare (FPH) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. Our analysis suggests a large long-term opportunity in the anaesthesia...

Forsyth Barr

Cochlear Ltd (COH AU): Underlying Business Strength Justifies Superior Valuation

Cochlear lifted FY24 net profit guidance 8% to A$385–400M (+26–31% YoY). The company expects FY24 cochlear implant volume growth of 10–15% YoY from...

Tina Banerjee

F&P Healthcare - Improving Health

F&P Healthcare's (FPH) revised FY24 underlying NPAT guidance range is +3% ahead of prior consensus, reflecting improving revenue trends.

Forsyth Barr

F&P Healthcare - Checking the Wards

F&P Healthcare's (FPH) 2H24 revenue guidance and outlook commentary is for hospital consumables seasonality to be consistent with...

Forsyth Barr

S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

As expected, Gentrack and Turners Auto will replace Synlait Milk and Pacific Edge in the NZX50 Index. The adds have jumped recently and there...

Brian Freitas

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