New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

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Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>F&amp;P Healthcare's FY25 result was strong, with gross margins, operating cash flow, and Hospital new apps revenue all ahead of forecasts.</li><li>The company faces increased competitive pressures in the Homecare sector, which impacted revenue growth.</li><li>The top end of FY26 guidance is considered achievable, potentially leading to minor consensus upgrades.</li></ul>

F&amp;P Healthcare's FY25 result was strong, with gross margins, operating cash flow, and Hospital new apps revenue all ahead of forecasts.The company faces increased competitive pressures in the Homecare sector, which impacted revenue growth.The top end of FY26 guidance is considered achievable, potentially leading to minor consensus upgrades.

F&P Healthcare FY25 Result—Solid Foundations

<ul><li>We expect a strong result when F&amp;P Healthcare (FPH) reports on Wednesday, 28 May, with NPAT at the top end of its guidance and modestly ahead of consensus.</li><li>Our key focus areas at the result are tariff clarification and gross-margin outlook, Homecare revenue performance and outlook, and Hospital new apps (including anaesthesia performance).</li><li>We forecast revenue of NZ$2.02bn and NPAT of NZ$368m, which are moderately ahead of consensus, supported by ongoing share gains and a robust respiratory season.</li></ul>

We expect a strong result when F&amp;P Healthcare (FPH) reports on Wednesday, 28 May, with NPAT at the top end of its guidance and modestly ahead of consensus.Our key focus areas at the result are tariff clarification and gross-margin outlook, Homecare revenue performance and outlook, and Hospital new apps (including anaesthesia performance).We forecast revenue of NZ$2.02bn and NPAT of NZ$368m, which are moderately ahead of consensus, supported by ongoing share gains and a robust respiratory season.

F&P Healthcare FY25 Preview—Breathing Easy

<ul><li>Mexico export data is a good leading indicator for F&amp;P Healthcare's revenue, showing a strong relationship with consumables revenue.</li><li>Current data suggests F&amp;P Healthcare is on track to reach the top end of its FY25 revenue guidance range of NZ$2bn, supported by favorable FX moves and solid underlying trends.</li><li>Earnings projections for FY25/FY26/FY27 adjusted due to tariff impacts, with a decrease in target price to NZ$37.30.</li></ul>

Mexico export data is a good leading indicator for F&amp;P Healthcare's revenue, showing a strong relationship with consumables revenue.Current data suggests F&amp;P Healthcare is on track to reach the top end of its FY25 revenue guidance range of NZ$2bn, supported by favorable FX moves and solid underlying trends.Earnings projections for FY25/FY26/FY27 adjusted due to tariff impacts, with a decrease in target price to NZ$37.30.

F&P Healthcare - Crossing the Border—Mexico Export Data

<ul><li>A 25% tariff on all Mexican imports will commence in one month (but who really knows).</li><li>Mexico accounts for ~45% of FPH's production, so this poses a material profitability risk in the near term (~-15%–20% FY26 NPAT hit with no mitigating factors).</li><li>However, we think it shouldn't have a material impact on valuation at this stage, reflecting: (1) the distinct possibility of a reversal or revisions (which occurred overnight), (2) slight SG&amp;A flexibility, and (3) FPH's ability to shift production back toward NZ and use Mexico as a hub for rest of the world (ROW) markets.</li></ul>

A 25% tariff on all Mexican imports will commence in one month (but who really knows).Mexico accounts for ~45% of FPH's production, so this poses a material profitability risk in the near term (~-15%–20% FY26 NPAT hit with no mitigating factors).However, we think it shouldn't have a material impact on valuation at this stage, reflecting: (1) the distinct possibility of a reversal or revisions (which occurred overnight), (2) slight SG&amp;A flexibility, and (3) FPH's ability to shift production back toward NZ and use Mexico as a hub for rest of the world (ROW) markets.

F&P Healthcare - Tariffs—It's (Probably) Not Too Bad

<ul><li>We think the US respiratory data for the season to date is suggestive of F&amp;P Healthcare (FPH) reaching around the top-end of its guidance range.</li><li>This reflects: (1) our analysis of US flu hospitalisation trends in prior seasons (after peaking) as a proxy for the remainder of FPH's financial year, and (2) Europe flu data being well ahead of FPH's FY15 and FY17 reference points.</li><li>Somewhat offsetting this is weak COVID data, hence, with ~six weeks of elevated viral levels to come, we caution drawing firm conclusions. </li></ul>

We think the US respiratory data for the season to date is suggestive of F&amp;P Healthcare (FPH) reaching around the top-end of its guidance range.This reflects: (1) our analysis of US flu hospitalisation trends in prior seasons (after peaking) as a proxy for the remainder of FPH's financial year, and (2) Europe flu data being well ahead of FPH's FY15 and FY17 reference points.Somewhat offsetting this is weak COVID data, hence, with ~six weeks of elevated viral levels to come, we caution drawing firm conclusions. 

New Zealand

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited designs, manufactures and markets heated humidification products and systems for use in respiratory care and the treatment of sleep apnea.  The Company also offers patient warming and neonatal care products, including warming products and infant resuscitators.

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Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Cor (FPH AU)

F&P Healthcare FY25 Result—Solid Foundations

F&P Healthcare's FY25 result was strong, with gross margins, operating cash flow, and Hospital new apps revenue all ahead of forecasts.

Forsyth Barr

F&P Healthcare FY25 Preview—Breathing Easy

We expect a strong result when F&P Healthcare (FPH) reports on Wednesday, 28 May, with NPAT at the top end of its guidance and modestly ahead of...

Forsyth Barr

F&P Healthcare - Crossing the Border—Mexico Export Data

Mexico export data is a good leading indicator for F&P Healthcare's revenue, showing a strong relationship with consumables revenue.

Forsyth Barr

F&P Healthcare - Tariffs—It's (Probably) Not Too Bad

Mexico accounts for ~45% of FPH's production, so this poses a material profitability risk in the near term (~-15%–20% FY26 NPAT hit with no...

Forsyth Barr

F&P Healthcare - Checking the Wards

We think the US respiratory data for the season to date is suggestive of F&P Healthcare (FPH) reaching around the top-end of its guidance range.

Forsyth Barr

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