Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.</li>
<li>We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225</li>
<li>We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.
We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225
We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities


Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Following F&amp;P Healthcare's (FPH) FY24 result, we walk away with increased confidence in the medium-term earnings outlook.</li><li>This reflects: (1) solid revenue momentum across all areas of the business, but particularly homecare and anaesthesia, (2) affirmed gross margin recovery expectations, we forecast FPH returning to its 65% gross margin target in FY27, and (3) positive outlook from new product launches, with early market feedback across its hardware and homecare products particularly constructive.</li><li>As a result, we have increased our medium-term earnings forecasts by mid single digits and our FY25 NPAT forecast is +3% ahead of FPH's guidance midpoint. </li></ul>

Following F&amp;P Healthcare's (FPH) FY24 result, we walk away with increased confidence in the medium-term earnings outlook.This reflects: (1) solid revenue momentum across all areas of the business, but particularly homecare and anaesthesia, (2) affirmed gross margin recovery expectations, we forecast FPH returning to its 65% gross margin target in FY27, and (3) positive outlook from new product launches, with early market feedback across its hardware and homecare products particularly constructive.As a result, we have increased our medium-term earnings forecasts by mid single digits and our FY25 NPAT forecast is +3% ahead of FPH's guidance midpoint. 

F&P Healthcare - FY24 Result — In Good Health

<ul><li>With guidance provided near year-end, we see little scope for material underlying surprises and walk into F&amp;P Healthcare's (FPH) FY24 result on Wednesday, 29 May, with confidence it will guide to strong FY25 NPAT growth (consensus currently forecasts ~+27%).</li><li>That said, FPH's share price is up ~+22% year-to-date despite minimal FY25 and beyond consensus earnings upgrades since the 1H24 result in November.</li><li>FPH is a high-quality business with a strong growth outlook, helped by a quickly growing anaesthesia contribution, but at ~49x 12 month forward PE, there is limited room for error relative to consensus' near-term earnings expectations. </li></ul>

With guidance provided near year-end, we see little scope for material underlying surprises and walk into F&amp;P Healthcare's (FPH) FY24 result on Wednesday, 29 May, with confidence it will guide to strong FY25 NPAT growth (consensus currently forecasts ~+27%).That said, FPH's share price is up ~+22% year-to-date despite minimal FY25 and beyond consensus earnings upgrades since the 1H24 result in November.FPH is a high-quality business with a strong growth outlook, helped by a quickly growing anaesthesia contribution, but at ~49x 12 month forward PE, there is limited room for error relative to consensus' near-term earnings expectations. 

F&P Healthcare - FY24 Preview — High Expectations

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating on F&amp;P Healthcare (FPH) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM.</li><li>Our analysis suggests a large long-term opportunity in the anaesthesia market.</li><li>This reflects: (1) strong industry feedback, (2) large market size, and (3) current use case/body of clinical research, underpinning a solid market penetration ability (which we expect to grow through time). </li></ul>

We upgrade our rating on F&amp;P Healthcare (FPH) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM.Our analysis suggests a large long-term opportunity in the anaesthesia market.This reflects: (1) strong industry feedback, (2) large market size, and (3) current use case/body of clinical research, underpinning a solid market penetration ability (which we expect to grow through time). 

F&P Healthcare - The Next Big Thing; Upgrade to NEUTRAL

New Zealand

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited designs, manufactures and markets heated humidification products and systems for use in respiratory care and the treatment of sleep apnea.  The Company also offers patient warming and neonatal care products, including warming products and infant resuscitators.

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Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Cor (FPH AU)

Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Reiterating Japan Overweight; $Nikkei 225, $TOPIX, TOPIX Small, $DXJ All Breaking Out with 2+ year RS uptrends intact on Nikkei and TOPIX. Still...

Vermilion Research

F&P Healthcare - FY24 Result — In Good Health

Following F&P Healthcare's (FPH) FY24 result, we walk away with increased confidence in the medium-term earnings outlook.

Forsyth Barr

F&P Healthcare - FY24 Preview — High Expectations

FPH is a high-quality business with a strong growth outlook, helped by a quickly growing anaesthesia contribution, but at ~49x 12 month forward PE

Forsyth Barr

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

F&P Healthcare - The Next Big Thing; Upgrade to NEUTRAL

We upgrade our rating on F&P Healthcare (FPH) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. Our analysis suggests a large long-term opportunity in the anaesthesia...

Forsyth Barr

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