Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The original trade was discussed at end-April in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tax-loss-selling-in-australia-2024-historical-analysis-and-a-trade-basket" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:139337" rel="noopener">Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 - Historical Analysis and A Trade Basket</a> then updated <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tax-loss-selling-in-australia-2024-a-trade-basket-updated" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tax-loss-selling-in-australia-2024-the-may-basket-april-basket-2-3-to-6-3-rtn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. </li>
<li>That has done OK. The LIQUID basket has delta neutral performance of +8.4% over 2mos; LIQUID+LESSLIQUID +7.2%; If one did a mixed basket (3x L+LL + 1x Illiquids) it's +8.6%.</li>
<li>Now it is time to reverse the trade, buying the basket you were short, and running it against index for the next 6-8 weeks.</li>
</ul>


The original trade was discussed at end-April in Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 - Historical Analysis and A Trade Basket then updated here and here. 
That has done OK. The LIQUID basket has delta neutral performance of +8.4% over 2mos; LIQUID+LESSLIQUID +7.2%; If one did a mixed basket (3x L+LL + 1x Illiquids) it's +8.6%.
Now it is time to reverse the trade, buying the basket you were short, and running it against index for the next 6-8 weeks.


Tax-Loss Selling In Australia 2024 - Time To Reverse The Trade (7.2-8.6% Rtn in Two Months So Far)

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Residential consents were down slightly in April but remain within the 30–35k range they have tracked over the last nine months.</li><li>This range is c.35% below the mid-2022 peak of 51.0k, a level in excess of industry capacity.</li><li>Residential construction activity is declining, with higher interest rates, inflated construction costs, and lower house prices all contributing. </li></ul>

Residential consents were down slightly in April but remain within the 30–35k range they have tracked over the last nine months.This range is c.35% below the mid-2022 peak of 51.0k, a level in excess of industry capacity.Residential construction activity is declining, with higher interest rates, inflated construction costs, and lower house prices all contributing. 

Building Sector - NZ Consents — On a Level

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We lower our Fletcher Building (FBU) rating from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, and reduce our 12-month target price to NZ$3.80.</li><li>There were few redeeming features in today's trading update, with the core materials and distribution businesses bearing the brunt of the cyclical downturn (although channel checks suggest more so than some peers) while the lower multiple residential development and construction divisions are faring better.</li><li>With guidance for debt to remain elevated in 2H24, questions around FBU's balance sheet linger. </li></ul>

We lower our Fletcher Building (FBU) rating from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, and reduce our 12-month target price to NZ$3.80.There were few redeeming features in today's trading update, with the core materials and distribution businesses bearing the brunt of the cyclical downturn (although channel checks suggest more so than some peers) while the lower multiple residential development and construction divisions are faring better.With guidance for debt to remain elevated in 2H24, questions around FBU's balance sheet linger. 

Fletcher Building - In the Balance, Down to NEUTRAL

<ul><li>Fletcher Building's (FBU) 1H24 result and FY24 guidance was disappointing. FBU does have some good NZ businesses with strong market positions which have generated c.NZ$390m EBIT on average over the last decade.</li><li>However, group performance has been dragged down by issues in Construction and Australia. The question is: are these over?</li><li>We think it's unlikely in the short-term, with the New Zealand International Convention Centre (NZICC) still to be completed and Iplex pipe issues still unresolved. </li></ul>

Fletcher Building's (FBU) 1H24 result and FY24 guidance was disappointing. FBU does have some good NZ businesses with strong market positions which have generated c.NZ$390m EBIT on average over the last decade.However, group performance has been dragged down by issues in Construction and Australia. The question is: are these over?We think it's unlikely in the short-term, with the New Zealand International Convention Centre (NZICC) still to be completed and Iplex pipe issues still unresolved. 

<div id="m_8317410814445020341iubdj-2-2-2"><ul><li>December quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production continued the downward trend that began early in 2022.</li><li>Volumes in 2023 were down -11% on the prior year and -12% for the December quarter.</li><li>December volumes were broadly in line with pre-pandemic levels in Auckland, with declines more pronounced across the rest of the country. </li></ul></div>

December quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production continued the downward trend that began early in 2022.Volumes in 2023 were down -11% on the prior year and -12% for the December quarter.December volumes were broadly in line with pre-pandemic levels in Auckland, with declines more pronounced across the rest of the country. 

Building Sector - Ready-Mix Concrete — Cementing 2023

Australia

Fletcher Building Limited manufactures, distributes, and sells materials for the building industry including wood fiber-based products, cement and aggregates, plasterboard, laminates, lumber, and aluminium extrusion. The Company operates primarily in New Zealand and Australia.

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Fletcher Building (FBU AU)

Tax-Loss Selling In Australia 2024 - Time To Reverse The Trade (7.2-8.6% Rtn in Two Months So Far)

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Residential consents were down slightly in April but remain within the 30–35k range they have tracked over the last nine months.

Forsyth Barr

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Fletcher Building's (FBU) 1H24 result and FY24 guidance was disappointing. FBU does have some good NZ businesses with strong market positions...

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Building Sector - Ready-Mix Concrete — Cementing 2023

December volumes were broadly in line with pre-pandemic levels in Auckland, with declines more pronounced across the rest of the country.

Forsyth Barr

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