Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 28th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD50.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Brambles, Worley, Transurban, Charter Hall.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 28th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD50.8bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Brambles, Worley, Transurban, Charter Hall.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 28th): Steadfast, Brambles, Worley, Transurban, Charter Hall

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Residential consents were down slightly in April but remain within the 30–35k range they have tracked over the last nine months.</li><li>This range is c.35% below the mid-2022 peak of 51.0k, a level in excess of industry capacity.</li><li>Residential construction activity is declining, with higher interest rates, inflated construction costs, and lower house prices all contributing. </li></ul>

Residential consents were down slightly in April but remain within the 30–35k range they have tracked over the last nine months.This range is c.35% below the mid-2022 peak of 51.0k, a level in excess of industry capacity.Residential construction activity is declining, with higher interest rates, inflated construction costs, and lower house prices all contributing. 

Building Sector - NZ Consents — On a Level

<div id="m_8317410814445020341iubdj-2-2-2"><ul><li>December quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production continued the downward trend that began early in 2022.</li><li>Volumes in 2023 were down -11% on the prior year and -12% for the December quarter.</li><li>December volumes were broadly in line with pre-pandemic levels in Auckland, with declines more pronounced across the rest of the country. </li></ul></div>

December quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production continued the downward trend that began early in 2022.Volumes in 2023 were down -11% on the prior year and -12% for the December quarter.December volumes were broadly in line with pre-pandemic levels in Auckland, with declines more pronounced across the rest of the country. 

Building Sector - Ready-Mix Concrete — Cementing 2023

<div id="m_2532418749359313970iubdj-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2"><ul><li>After having run at record levels over 2021–2022, residential building consents finished the year down -25% on 2022 but still at a solid 37k.</li><li>The decline was concentrated in metro areas, in particular Wellington and Auckland, and there were similar levels of declines in both detached and high density dwellings.</li><li>While consents are likely to continue to soften over the first half of 2024, forward indicators suggest activity will likely improve over 2024. </li></ul></div>

After having run at record levels over 2021–2022, residential building consents finished the year down -25% on 2022 but still at a solid 37k.The decline was concentrated in metro areas, in particular Wellington and Auckland, and there were similar levels of declines in both detached and high density dwellings.While consents are likely to continue to soften over the first half of 2024, forward indicators suggest activity will likely improve over 2024. 

Building Sector - NZ Consents — A Year in Decline

<ul><li>September quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production highlighted continued soft NZ construction activity, with volume declines on both the prior quarter (seasonally adjusted) and the prior year.</li><li>The -10% year on year decline in RMC volumes is broadly consistent with recent trading updates from Fletcher Building (FBU) and Vulcan Steel (VSL).</li><li>Concrete volumes are now broadly back to pre-pandemic levels, but there maybe some signs of life in Auckland where there have been two quarters of sequential volume growth. </li></ul>

September quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production highlighted continued soft NZ construction activity, with volume declines on both the prior quarter (seasonally adjusted) and the prior year.The -10% year on year decline in RMC volumes is broadly consistent with recent trading updates from Fletcher Building (FBU) and Vulcan Steel (VSL).Concrete volumes are now broadly back to pre-pandemic levels, but there maybe some signs of life in Auckland where there have been two quarters of sequential volume growth. 

Building Sector - Ready-Mix Concrete — Set in Its Way

New Zealand

Fletcher Building Limited manufactures, distributes, and sells materials for the building industry including wood fiber-based products, cement and aggregates, plasterboard, laminates, lumber, and aluminium extrusion. The Company operates primarily in New Zealand and Australia.

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Fletcher Building (FBU NZ)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 28th): Steadfast, Brambles, Worley, Transurban, Charter Hall

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Brambles, Worley, Transurban, Charter Hall.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Building Sector - NZ Consents — On a Level

Residential consents were down slightly in April but remain within the 30–35k range they have tracked over the last nine months.

Forsyth Barr

Building Sector - Ready-Mix Concrete — Cementing 2023

December volumes were broadly in line with pre-pandemic levels in Auckland, with declines more pronounced across the rest of the country.

Forsyth Barr

Building Sector - NZ Consents — A Year in Decline

After having run at record levels over 2021–2022, residential building consents finished the year down -25% on 2022 but still at a solid 37k.

Forsyth Barr

Building Sector - Ready-Mix Concrete — Set in Its Way

September quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production highlighted continued soft NZ construction activity, with volume declines on both the prior...

Forsyth Barr

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