Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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In the postcard series, our objective is to understand the macro environment shaping India and to assess the on-ground progress on its ambitious plan to reach USD 5 trillion from the current USD 2.7 trillion economy.
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In this Postcard, we present our key takeaways from the interactions in Jaisalmer, a tourist hotspot in the state of Rajasthan.
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In the postcard series, our objective is to understand the macro environment shaping India and to assess the on-ground progress on its ambitious plan to reach USD 5 trillion from the current USD 2.7 trillion economy.


In this Postcard, we present our key takeaways from the interactions in Jaisalmer, a tourist hotspot in the state of Rajasthan.


Postcard from Jaisalmer | Changing Consumers, Shifting Gears

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Capital Markets

In this insight, we discuss how and why the growth outlook for the online food delivery sector in India is not as robust as online consumer retail - a fact that Zomato's buoyant valuations seem to overlook. Food delivery players like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOM IN)</a> can tap into only a fraction of India's rising e-Comm user base in the next several years and hence are not the best plays on India's expanding online shopper base. India's low urbanization rate, restrictive social factors, and high level of income inequality limit the penetration rate for food delivery platforms like Zomato and thus impact their pace and potential for growth in the near-to-medium term vis-a-vis online retail tech platforms. Investors need to be cognizant of these restrictive macro factors while assessing this IPO's investment worth and valuation assumptions.Zomato's IPO has received the regulator's approval and is priced at Rs72 - 76 indicating a steep increase in valuation versus its last round of fundraising in February 2021. At the upper-end, Zomato will now be valued at USD8Bn+ versus USD5.2 Bn in Feb 2021. We suspect the street's excitement over this USD1.2 Bn+ IPO is likely driven by bullish growth expectations based on India's expanding online user base as well as the brand's high visibility and recall. We believe upcoming IPOs in the online retail sector like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flipkart-online-services-private-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31076:1" rel="noopener">Flipkart, </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nykaa-e-retail-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33469:1" rel="noopener">Nykaa E-Retail </a>could offer a more direct investment opportunity to ride the growth in India's rising online spending.Our earlier report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zomato-s-usd-1bn-ipo-india-foodtech-s-lead-play-striking-when-the-market-is-covid-hot" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50874" rel="noopener">Zomato's USD 1Bn IPO: India Foodtech's Lead Play. Striking when the Market Is COVID-Hot.</a>discussed Zomato's business basics.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/217/484/original/Screenshot+2021-07-08+at+6.24.44+PM.png?1625741192" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="217484"></figure></section>

In this insight, we discuss how and why the growth outlook for the online food delivery sector in India is not as robust as online consumer retail - a fact that Zomato's buoyant valuations seem to overlook. Food delivery players like Zomato (ZOM IN) can tap into only a fraction of India's rising e-Comm user base in the next several years and hence are not the best plays on India's expanding online shopper base. India's low urbanization rate, restrictive social factors, and high level of income inequality limit the penetration rate for food delivery platforms like Zomato and thus impact their pace and potential for growth in the near-to-medium term vis-a-vis online retail tech platforms. Investors need to be cognizant of these restrictive macro factors while assessing this IPO's investment worth and valuation assumptions.Zomato's IPO has received the regulator's approval and is priced at Rs72 - 76 indicating a steep increase in valuation versus its last round of fundraising in February 2021. At the upper-end, Zomato will now be valued at USD8Bn+ versus USD5.2 Bn in Feb 2021. We suspect the street's excitement over this USD1.2 Bn+ IPO is likely driven by bullish growth expectations based on India's expanding online user base as well as the brand's high visibility and recall. We believe upcoming IPOs in the online retail sector like Flipkart, Nykaa E-Retail could offer a more direct investment opportunity to ride the growth in India's rising online spending.Our earlier report Zomato's USD 1Bn IPO: India Foodtech's Lead Play. Striking when the Market Is COVID-Hot.discussed Zomato's business basics.

Zomato IPO: Floating High Above Sector Reality. Not a Linear Play on India's Rising EComm User Base

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dingdong-maicia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33461:1" rel="noopener">Dingdong Maicia (DDL US)</a>(DM) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/missfresh-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33468:1" rel="noopener">Missfresh (MF US)</a> (MFL) are two groceries on-demand e-commerce companies in China, both aim to raise up to US$500m each via a US listing. In our earlier notes, we have looked at the background and performance of both of the companies:<ul>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dingdong-maicai-pre-ipo-increasing-market-share-fast-growth-but-no-signs-of-profit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dingdong Maicai Pre-IPO - Increasing market share, fast growth but no signs of profit</a></li>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/missfresh-limited-pre-ipo-worrying-and-unsustainable-trend" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Missfresh (每日优鲜) Pre-IPO - Worrying and unsustainable trend</a></li>
</ul>Since both of the companies are operating in similar markets, in this note we will compare the performance of the two companies.

Dingdong Maicia (DDL US)(DM) and Missfresh (MF US) (MFL) are two groceries on-demand e-commerce companies in China, both aim to raise up to US$500m each via a US listing. In our earlier notes, we have looked at the background and performance of both of the companies:
Dingdong Maicai Pre-IPO - Increasing market share, fast growth but no signs of profit
Missfresh (每日优鲜) Pre-IPO - Worrying and unsustainable trend
Since both of the companies are operating in similar markets, in this note we will compare the performance of the two companies.

Dingdong Maicai Vs Miss Fresh Pre-IPO - One Clear Winner

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Flipkart Online Services / Equity Capital Markets

A string of Indian unicorns is expected to go public in the near term to benefit from the post-COVID tech IPO bubble. Late last year, it was reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flipkart-online-services-private-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31076:1" rel="noopener">Flipkart Online Services (1398508D IN)</a>, an Indian e-commerce company controlled by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a>, was pursuing a US IPO of approximately $10.0bn.According to a recent news article on Bloomberg, it appears that Walmart has made good progress over the last few months and targets to complete the Flipkart IPO during the fourth quarter of 2021. Meanwhile, under growing opposition from offline retailors, the Indian government is proposing to change the e-commerce policy framework. When implemented the new framework will significantly affect India’s foreign controlled e-commerce giants Walmart and Flipkart at a time a well-funded local player (Reliance) is starting to disrupt the peaking order of the Indian e-commerce market.

A string of Indian unicorns is expected to go public in the near term to benefit from the post-COVID tech IPO bubble. Late last year, it was reported that Flipkart Online Services (1398508D IN), an Indian e-commerce company controlled by Walmart (WMT US), was pursuing a US IPO of approximately $10.0bn.According to a recent news article on Bloomberg, it appears that Walmart has made good progress over the last few months and targets to complete the Flipkart IPO during the fourth quarter of 2021. Meanwhile, under growing opposition from offline retailors, the Indian government is proposing to change the e-commerce policy framework. When implemented the new framework will significantly affect India’s foreign controlled e-commerce giants Walmart and Flipkart at a time a well-funded local player (Reliance) is starting to disrupt the peaking order of the Indian e-commerce market.

In this insight, we discuss (1) the likely catalysts triggering <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flipkart-online-services-private-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31076:1" rel="noopener">Flipkart Online Services </a> (Flipkart) going public, (2) a quick primer on Flipkart and its multiple business verticals, (3) the listed players/peers that may potentially be impacted by Flipkart's listing. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flipkart-online-services-private-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31076:1" rel="noopener">Flipkart Online Services (Flipkart)</a>'s upcoming IPO will offer investors an opportunity to take direct exposure in India's fast-growing eCommerce segment. Flipkart is a pureplay India eCommerce and related services (digital payments, logistics) company with a dominant presence across multiple verticals. Flipkart's listing could be a test of investor appetite and valuation potential for India based eComm players and may pave the way for other players to go public.

In this insight, we discuss (1) the likely catalysts triggering Flipkart Online Services  (Flipkart) going public, (2) a quick primer on Flipkart and its multiple business verticals, (3) the listed players/peers that may potentially be impacted by Flipkart's listing. Flipkart Online Services (Flipkart)'s upcoming IPO will offer investors an opportunity to take direct exposure in India's fast-growing eCommerce segment. Flipkart is a pureplay India eCommerce and related services (digital payments, logistics) company with a dominant presence across multiple verticals. Flipkart's listing could be a test of investor appetite and valuation potential for India based eComm players and may pave the way for other players to go public. 

Flipkart's IPO in the Works - All You Need to Know for Now

India

Flipkart Online Services Private Limited owns and operates e-commerce website. The Company provides books, movies, music, games, consoles, televisions, mobiles, digital cameras, computers, network components, software, peripherals, apparel, shoes, and kitchen appliances. Flipkart Online Services serves customers in India.

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Flipkart Online Services (1398508D IN)

Postcard from Jaisalmer | Changing Consumers, Shifting Gears

In this Postcard, we present our key takeaways from the interactions in Jaisalmer, a tourist hotspot in the state of Rajasthan.

Pranav Bhavsar

Zomato IPO: Floating High Above Sector Reality. Not a Linear Play on India's Rising EComm User Base

IPO valuations ignore that the growth outlook for the online food delivery sector in India is not as robust as online consumer retail. Projections...

Devi Subhakesan

Dingdong Maicai Vs Miss Fresh Pre-IPO - One Clear Winner

Dingdong Maicia (DDL US)(DM) and Missfresh (MF US) (MFL), are two groceries on-demand e-commerce companies in China, both aim to raise up to...

Sumeet Singh

Flipkart IPO: A Race Against Time

When implemented the new framework will significantly affect India’s foreign controlled e-commerce giants Walmart and Flipkart at a time a well...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Flipkart's IPO in the Works - All You Need to Know for Now

Read for Likely catalysts triggering Flipkart's IPO, a quick primer on Flipkart and its multiple business verticals, the listed players/peers that...

Devi Subhakesan

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