Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>Since late-February, we've discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap</li>
<li>4920-4950 is now support near last week's lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.</li>
</ul>


While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&amp;P 500
Since late-February, we've discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap
4920-4950 is now support near last week's lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.


Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-worldwide-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22690:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU)</a> disclosed a non-binding proposal from Brookfield at A$4.75, a 31.6% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The Board has entered into a process deed providing Brookfield with exclusivity for four weeks, from 17 August to 15 September.</li>
<li>The timing is opportunistic (given depressed earnings and the outlook) and is light relative to peers' multiples. However, the lack of a credible alternative path suggests low resistance from shareholders.</li>
</ul>



Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from Brookfield at A$4.75, a 31.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The Board has entered into a process deed providing Brookfield with exclusivity for four weeks, from 17 August to 15 September.
The timing is opportunistic (given depressed earnings and the outlook) and is light relative to peers' multiples. However, the lack of a credible alternative path suggests low resistance from shareholders.


Reliance Worldwide (RWC AU): Brookfield’s NBIO Is Light but Likely Done

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. </li>
<li>As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we cannot be bearishif the SPX is above 4165-4200</li>
<li>Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. 
As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we cannot be bearishif the SPX is above 4165-4200
Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.


Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.


S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

As bullish developments pile up, the weight-of-the-evidence continues to support our belief that we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. There are some developments that leave us wanting more, but we are inching toward an outright bullish outlook. In today’s report we outline our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care, Materials, and Manufacturing: Biotech, Large-Cap, Aluminum, Chemicals, Diversified, and Fluid Technology &amp; Power.

As bullish developments pile up, the weight-of-the-evidence continues to support our belief that we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. There are some developments that leave us wanting more, but we are inching toward an outright bullish outlook. In today’s report we outline our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care, Materials, and Manufacturing: Biotech, Large-Cap, Aluminum, Chemicals, Diversified, and Fluid Technology &amp; Power.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Small-Caps Testing Critical Resistance; Downgrading Communications

United States

Flowserve Corporation designs, manufactures, distributes, and services industrial flow management equipment throughout the world. The Company provides pumps, valves, and mechanical seals primarily for the refinery and pipeline segments of the petroleum, chemical processing, power generation, and water treatment industries.

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Flowserve Corp (FLS US)

Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

Shift Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Tech to market weight $XLK; Upgrading Industrials $XLI to Overweight; Upgrading Utilities $XLU to...

Vermilion Research

Reliance Worldwide (RWC AU): Brookfield’s NBIO Is Light but Likely Done

The timing is opportunistic (given depressed earnings and the outlook) and is light relative to peers' multiples. However, the lack of a credible...

Arun George

Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

Dow $DJI Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 ahead of FOMC. Breadth continues to improve within the Russell 2000 $IWM, and breadth improving within...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

We continue to see more evidence suggesting the lows are in; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. 4-month downtrend reversal for...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Small-Caps Testing Critical Resistance; Downgrading Communications

As bullish developments pile up, the weight-of-the-evidence continues to support our belief that we may be in the early stages of a broad-based...

Vermilion Research

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