Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Equity Bottom-Up

Fomento Economico Mexica-Ubd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sales of P$195.8bn were 11.1% higher YoY, better than our estimates and mostly in line with consensus, with outperformance vs our estimates driven by KOF (which reported last Friday 4/25).</li><li>SSS at Proximity Americas contracted 1.8% YoY, the lowest in 4 years, impacted by calendar headwinds, a tough comp, and a soft consumer environment; traffic declined 6.6% YoY, while ticket grew 5.1%.</li><li>Management expects an improvement towards mid-year, with momentum improving during 3Q25 onwards.</li></ul>

Sales of P$195.8bn were 11.1% higher YoY, better than our estimates and mostly in line with consensus, with outperformance vs our estimates driven by KOF (which reported last Friday 4/25).SSS at Proximity Americas contracted 1.8% YoY, the lowest in 4 years, impacted by calendar headwinds, a tough comp, and a soft consumer environment; traffic declined 6.6% YoY, while ticket grew 5.1%.Management expects an improvement towards mid-year, with momentum improving during 3Q25 onwards.

Fomento Economico Mexica-Ubd - Actinver Research - FEMSA 1Q25: Proximity starts soft (Quick View)

<ul><li>Sales of P$208.3bn were 12.8% higher YoY, better than our estimates and consensus, driven by healthy growth across all segments, FX tailwinds, KOF’s solid results, and inorganic growth (4Q24 was the first full quarter reflecting the Delek acquisition).</li><li>SSS at Proximity Americas reached 3.8%, better vs 3Q24 and our estimates.</li><li>For the third consecutive quarter, nonetheless, traffic declined (2.8%), while ticket grew 6.8% YoY.</li></ul>

Sales of P$208.3bn were 12.8% higher YoY, better than our estimates and consensus, driven by healthy growth across all segments, FX tailwinds, KOF’s solid results, and inorganic growth (4Q24 was the first full quarter reflecting the Delek acquisition).SSS at Proximity Americas reached 3.8%, better vs 3Q24 and our estimates.For the third consecutive quarter, nonetheless, traffic declined (2.8%), while ticket grew 6.8% YoY.

Fomento Economico Mexica-Ubd - Actinver Research - FEMSA 4Q24: Better than expected (Quick View)

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.</li>
<li>Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.</li>
<li>Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. </li>
</ul>


In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.
Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.
Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. 


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>A meaningful recovery is still pending; soft conditions across most industries remain, with weather headwinds and FX impacting some companies.</li>
<li>For yet another quarter, we forecast average margin contraction for our covered companies, a trend that seems to be lingering for the rest of the year.</li>
<li>In Consumer, we are mostly lowering our PTs, -2% on a median basis, as we expect continued consumer softness in both Mexico and the U.S.; FX is expected to be less of a factor YoY. </li>
</ul>


A meaningful recovery is still pending; soft conditions across most industries remain, with weather headwinds and FX impacting some companies.
For yet another quarter, we forecast average margin contraction for our covered companies, a trend that seems to be lingering for the rest of the year.
In Consumer, we are mostly lowering our PTs, -2% on a median basis, as we expect continued consumer softness in both Mexico and the U.S.; FX is expected to be less of a factor YoY. 


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 3Q25 Preview

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.</li>
<li>The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 6 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 15 October.</li>
<li>There are 217 adds and 224 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.3bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 6 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 15 October.
There are 217 adds and 224 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.3bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade

Mexico

Fomento Economico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. (FEMSA) is a Company that through its subsidiaries produces, distributes and markets non-alcoholic beverages throughout Latin America as part of the Coca-Cola system. The Company owns and operates convenience stores in Mexico and Colombia and holds a stake in Heineken.

Fomento Economico Mexica-Ubd (FEMSAUBD MM)

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Fomento Economico Mexica-Ubd (FEMSAUBD MM)

Fomento Economico Mexica-Ubd - Actinver Research - FEMSA 1Q25: Proximity starts soft (Quick View)

Sales of P$195.8bn were 11.1% higher YoY, better than our estimates and mostly in line with consensus, with outperformance vs our estimates driven...

Actinver

Fomento Economico Mexica-Ubd - Actinver Research - FEMSA 4Q24: Better than expected (Quick View)

Sales of P$208.3bn were 12.8% higher YoY, better than our estimates and consensus, driven by healthy growth across all segments, FX tailwinds,...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

We highlight Becle given its solid margin performance, ahead of our previous upbeat estimates, even after accounting for non-recurring items

Actinver

Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 3Q25 Preview

A meaningful recovery is still pending; soft conditions across most industries remain, with weather headwinds and FX impacting some companies.

Actinver

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 217 adds/224 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index. The round-trip trade is around US$2.3bn and there are a...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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