Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas.

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas. 

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

We remain cautious as the number of bearish-leaning developments continue to pile up. As a result we continue to believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown. We recap important technical levels across markets and highlight Actionable Themes within Services, Consumer Staples, and Health Care. We also highlight attractive set ups in H&amp;M Hennes &amp; Mauritz AB Class B (HM.B-SE).

We remain cautious as the number of bearish-leaning developments continue to pile up. As a result we continue to believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown. We recap important technical levels across markets and highlight Actionable Themes within Services, Consumer Staples, and Health Care. We also highlight attractive set ups in H&amp;M Hennes &amp; Mauritz AB Class B (HM.B-SE).

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish-Leaning Developments Continue; Europe/UK Holding Above Support.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the announcement of the changes in June, we forecast 5 potential constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers are estimated to trade between 0.05 to 0.65 days of ADV in the forecast changes.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 2 months and the recent pullback offers an entry point into the implementation trade.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the announcement of the changes in June, we forecast 5 potential constituent changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK) / CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK). 
Passive trackers are estimated to trade between 0.05 to 0.65 days of ADV in the forecast changes.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 2 months and the recent pullback offers an entry point into the implementation trade.


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes in June as the AI-Driven Churn Continues

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs &amp; trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. We review all major markets and highlight attractive opportunities within Japan, and global real estate developers, and consumer staples stocks.

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs &amp; trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. We review all major markets and highlight attractive opportunities within Japan, and global real estate developers, and consumer staples stocks.

Major Indexes Testing Support & Vulnerable to Further Weakness

China

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Ltd. manufactures food seasonings. The Company develops, produces, and distributes condiments including soy sauce, oyster sauce, vinegar, flavoring sauce, chicken stock, monosodium glutamate, and oil.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)

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Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)

Major Indexes Testing Resistance

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities,...

Vermilion Research

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish-Leaning Developments Continue; Europe/UK Holding Above Support.

We remain cautious as the number of bearish-leaning developments continue to pile up. As a result we continue to believe global equities are...

Vermilion Research

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes in June as the AI-Driven Churn Continues

There could be 5 changes in June as the AI theme rolls on and beneficiaries replace old economy stocks. The recent pullback after the earlier...

Brian Freitas

Major Indexes Testing Support & Vulnerable to Further Weakness

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs & trade or...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)