IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Huaqin Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaqin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48099:1" rel="noopener">Huaqin (3296 HK)</a> priced its H Share at HK$77.70, raising HK$4,549 million (US$581 million) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huaqin-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:229484" rel="noopener">Huaqin H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huaqin-h-share-listing-3296-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:231473" rel="noopener">Huaqin H Share Listing (3296 HK): Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The grey market price is up 20% due to peers' reratings and FOMO driven by the strong performance of recent listings. Take profits and head for the exit.</li>
</ul>



Huaqin (3296 HK) priced its H Share at HK$77.70, raising HK$4,549 million (US$581 million) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in Huaqin H Share Listing: The Investment Case and Huaqin H Share Listing (3296 HK): Valuation Insights. 
The grey market price is up 20% due to peers' reratings and FOMO driven by the strong performance of recent listings. Take profits and head for the exit.


Huaqin H Share Listing (3296 HK): Trading Debut

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaqin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48099:1" rel="noopener">Huaqin (3296 HK)</a>, the world’s largest consumer electronics original design manufacturer, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$580 million.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huaqin-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:229484" rel="noopener">Huaqin H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>Given my previously discussed bearish investment case and the unattractive AH discount, I would avoid the H Share listing. </li>
</ul>



Huaqin (3296 HK), the world’s largest consumer electronics original design manufacturer, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$580 million.
I discussed the H Share listing in Huaqin H Share Listing: The Investment Case. 
Given my previously discussed bearish investment case and the unattractive AH discount, I would avoid the H Share listing. 


Huaqin H Share Listing (3296 HK): Valuation Insights

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Huaqin adopts "3+N+3" global large platform strategy. The core of business model lies in large-scale manufacturing and vertical integration. Due to “Buy &amp; Sell model”, profitability is a concern.</li>
<li>Despite negative operating cash flow, Huaqin still announced RMB1.216 billion dividend. The controlling shareholder has pledged shares for financing, which attracted market attention to the true adequacy of its funds.</li>
<li>Although Huaqin has big revenue scale, its profit quality, cash flow, corporate governance transparency are weaker than peers, making it difficult to enjoy the same level of valuation premium.   </li>
</ul>


Huaqin adopts "3+N+3" global large platform strategy. The core of business model lies in large-scale manufacturing and vertical integration. Due to “Buy &amp; Sell model”, profitability is a concern.
Despite negative operating cash flow, Huaqin still announced RMB1.216 billion dividend. The controlling shareholder has pledged shares for financing, which attracted market attention to the true adequacy of its funds.
Although Huaqin has big revenue scale, its profit quality, cash flow, corporate governance transparency are weaker than peers, making it difficult to enjoy the same level of valuation premium.   


Pre-IPO Huaqin (A/H Listing) - Low Profit Margin Is a Pain Point Due to Flaws in Business Model

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaqin-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40954:1" rel="noopener">Huaqin Technology (603296 CH)</a>, the world’s largest consumer electronics original design manufacturer, is pre-marketing an H-Share listing to raise around US$1 billion.   </li>
<li>Huaqin ranked as the largest consumer electronics ODM globally in 2024, with 22.5% market share.</li>
<li>The investment case is bearish as Huaqin’s rapid growth has come at the cost of margins and cash generation. Also, the valuation is unattractive compared to peer multiples. </li>
</ul>



Huaqin Technology (603296 CH), the world’s largest consumer electronics original design manufacturer, is pre-marketing an H-Share listing to raise around US$1 billion.   
Huaqin ranked as the largest consumer electronics ODM globally in 2024, with 22.5% market share.
The investment case is bearish as Huaqin’s rapid growth has come at the cost of margins and cash generation. Also, the valuation is unattractive compared to peer multiples. 


Huaqin H Share Listing: The Investment Case

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, there are 5 non-constituents in direct inclusion zone and 5 current constituents in direct deletion zone. However, as usual, there will be discretion used.</li>
<li>5 changes result in a one-way turnover of 6.4%, leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 13bn (US$1.9bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>Impact on the forecast adds varies between 0.2-0.3x ADV while the impact on the forecast deletes is a lot higher at 0.5-1.9x ADV. Index arb balance will further increase flow/impact.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, there are 5 non-constituents in direct inclusion zone and 5 current constituents in direct deletion zone. However, as usual, there will be discretion used.
5 changes result in a one-way turnover of 6.4%, leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 13bn (US$1.9bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
Impact on the forecast adds varies between 0.2-0.3x ADV while the impact on the forecast deletes is a lot higher at 0.5-1.9x ADV. Index arb balance will further increase flow/impact.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes & Borderline Names for June

Taiwan

Foxconn Industrial Internet Co., Ltd. operates as a communication network equipment development company. The Company develops and sells network switches, routers, wireless devices, web servers, set top boxes, smart home gateways, and other products. Foxconn Industrial Internet also manufactures storage equipment.

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Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH)

Pre-IPO Huaqin (A/H Listing) - Low Profit Margin Is a Pain Point Due to Flaws in Business Model

Huaqin's faces profitability concerns due to its Buy & Sell model. Despite large revenue, questions arise about the company's financial stability...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes & Borderline Names for June

There could be 5 changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.4% and round-trip trade is CNY 13bn (US$1.9bn). Index arb balance will increase flow and...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Huaqin H Share Listing (3296 HK): Trading Debut

The grey market price is up 20% due to peers' reratings and FOMO driven by the strong performance of recent listings. Take profits and head for the...

Arun George

Huaqin H Share Listing (3296 HK): Valuation Insights

Huaqin, the world’s largest consumer electronics original design manufacturer, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$580 million. In this...

Arun George

Pre-IPO Huaqin (A/H Listing) - Low Profit Margin Is a Pain Point Due to Flaws in Business Model

​Huaqin's faces profitability concerns due to its Buy & Sell model. Despite large revenue, questions arise about the company's financial stability...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Huaqin H Share Listing: The Investment Case

Huaqin, the world’s largest consumer electronics original design manufacturer, is pre-marketing an H-Share listing to raise around US$1 billion. In...

Arun George

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes & Borderline Names for June

There could be 5 changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.4% and round-trip trade is CNY 13bn (US$1.9bn). Index arb balance will increase flow and...

Brian Freitas

Huaqin's faces profitability concerns due to its Buy & Sell model. Despite large revenue, questions arise about the company's financial stability...