'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/834/original/2020-08-02_06-39-22.png?1596317982" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149834"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>CORRECTION</strong> - The last day of July saw the TOPIX index fall by 2.8% to reach a new two-month low, 8.2% below the closing high of June 8th. A combination of a strong yen, peak COVID-19 cases, the continuing unedifying stream of results &amp; revisions, and month-end portfolio 'adjustments' proved toxic. Our Results Score lost a further 57 basis points, while bullish initial full-year forecasts from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso (6902 JP)</a> helped the Forecast/Revision Score recover by 51 basis points. Nevertheless, the market's correlation with earnings and revisions momentum remains distorted by central bank liquidity. As noted in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-market-update-tired" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41562" rel="noopener"> Tired</a>, we expect both our Scores to bottom nearer the 2009 lows, in which case the Bank of Japan's cumulative purchases could reach over 10% of market value.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/839/original/2020-08-02_07-35-10.png?1596321328" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149839"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>DOWNFALL</strong> - After one-third of quarterly earnings announcements, at the current pace forward aggregate operating and net income could reach ¥35 trillion and ¥20 trillion, respectively by the end of the month, taking the market multiple to 30x, absent any further correction in share prices. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/840/original/2020-08-02_07-52-16.png?1596322358" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149840"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR SCORES</strong> - As in past cycles, the <strong>Information Technology</strong>,<strong> Internet</strong>, and<strong> Healthcare</strong> Sectors have proved to be the most resilient. On the downside, the breadth of the lowest-scoring Sectors is abnormal, with <strong>Consumer Services</strong> and <strong>Transport &amp; Logistics</strong> joining <strong>Metals</strong>, <strong>Autos</strong>, <strong>Eletcial Equipment</strong> and<strong> Machinery</strong>. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) results in the table below confirm the chart above but suggests some caution over <strong>Internet</strong> Sector margins.   </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/842/original/2020-08-02_07-59-45.png?1596322803" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149842"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>•BEST &amp; WORST 31st JULY •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>BEST &amp; WORST</strong> - Combining the day's results, revisions and forecasts, we select the 'best' and the 'worst' announcements according to our scoring. On the podium were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infocom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8412:1" rel="noopener">Infocom (4348 JP)</a>. In the pits were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/casio-computer-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18338:1" rel="noopener">Casio Computer (6952 JP)</a> and three railway lines - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/odakyu-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5405:1" rel="noopener">Odakyu (9007 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/west-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12077:1" rel="noopener">West Japan (9021 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13520:1" rel="noopener">Central Japan (9022 JP)</a> for which we will show the Peer Group's record-low long-term Scores.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/913/original/2020-08-02_08-30-42.png?1596324654" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149913"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/914/original/2020-08-02_08-31-29.png?1596324699" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149914"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/915/original/2020-08-02_08-33-28.png?1596324818" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149915"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/916/original/2020-08-02_08-40-22.png?1596325251" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149916"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> - <strong>66%</strong> of quarterly results,  <strong>71%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and <strong>75%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores and <strong>26%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>429 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 28% Positive / 6% Neutral / 66% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.1 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.3% Quarter YoY / -2.0% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.0 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 26%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>153 Annual • 115 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 26% Positive / 3% Neutral / 71% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change</strong>: 24% Positive / 1% Neutral / 75% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -8.4 points</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsCORRECTION - The last day of July saw the TOPIX index fall by 2.8% to reach a new two-month low, 8.2% below the closing high of June 8th. A combination of a strong yen, peak COVID-19 cases, the continuing unedifying stream of results &amp; revisions, and month-end portfolio 'adjustments' proved toxic. Our Results Score lost a further 57 basis points, while bullish initial full-year forecasts from Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) and Denso (6902 JP) helped the Forecast/Revision Score recover by 51 basis points. Nevertheless, the market's correlation with earnings and revisions momentum remains distorted by central bank liquidity. As noted in Tired, we expect both our Scores to bottom nearer the 2009 lows, in which case the Bank of Japan's cumulative purchases could reach over 10% of market value.Source • Japan AnalyticsDOWNFALL - After one-third of quarterly earnings announcements, at the current pace forward aggregate operating and net income could reach ¥35 trillion and ¥20 trillion, respectively by the end of the month, taking the market multiple to 30x, absent any further correction in share prices. Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR SCORES - As in past cycles, the Information Technology, Internet, and Healthcare Sectors have proved to be the most resilient. On the downside, the breadth of the lowest-scoring Sectors is abnormal, with Consumer Services and Transport &amp; Logistics joining Metals, Autos, Eletcial Equipment and Machinery. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) results in the table below confirm the chart above but suggests some caution over Internet Sector margins.   Source • Japan Analytics•BEST &amp; WORST 31st JULY •BEST &amp; WORST - Combining the day's results, revisions and forecasts, we select the 'best' and the 'worst' announcements according to our scoring. On the podium were Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) and Infocom (4348 JP). In the pits were Casio Computer (6952 JP) and three railway lines - Odakyu (9007 JP), West Japan (9021 JP) and Central Japan (9022 JP) for which we will show the Peer Group's record-low long-term Scores.Source • Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS
PERCENTAGES - 66% of quarterly results,  71% of annual forecasts/revisions and 75% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 26% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.
429 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 28% Positive / 6% Neutral / 66% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.1 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.3% Quarter YoY / -2.0% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 26%
 153 Annual • 115 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 26% Positive / 3% Neutral / 71% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 24% Positive / 1% Neutral / 75% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -8.4 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 31st July - Takeda, Yamato/SG, Seria, FP, Keyence, Dai-Ichi Sankyo

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas. </p>

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas. 

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of this global index ended 31 December, the changes should be announced on 20 February and implemented at the close on 20 March.</li>
<li>We forecast 41 changes across the index with 12 inclusions to the AC Index, 4 migrations from AC to AW, 11 migrations from AW to AC, and 14 deletions.</li>
<li>An equally weighted basket of the adds and upward migrations has outperformed the deletes and the downward migrations over the last 4 months with significant outperformance in the near-term too.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of this global index ended 31 December, the changes should be announced on 20 February and implemented at the close on 20 March.
We forecast 41 changes across the index with 12 inclusions to the AC Index, 4 migrations from AC to AW, 11 migrations from AW to AC, and 14 deletions.
An equally weighted basket of the adds and upward migrations has outperformed the deletes and the downward migrations over the last 4 months with significant outperformance in the near-term too.


Japan: (Forecast) Global Index Changes in March & Big Outperformance

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<p><strong>Chartonics flash </strong>Tuesday 30 August 2016</p><p><strong>USD/JPY macro low and position update webcast</strong></p><div>We have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke below 100 with a bull pivot above USD/JPY 101 which was triggered Friday. The bigger test revolves around USD sustainability above 101 and a successful test on the lower 101 pullback zone followed by a move through the second hurdle at 102.70. MT pivot resistance lies at 104 (macro bull targets come in at 110 and 114 with ideal objective at 114/117 in…</div>

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcastWe have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke below 100 with a bull pivot above USD/JPY 101 which was triggered Friday. The bigger test revolves around USD sustainability above 101 and a successful test on the lower 101 pullback zone followed by a move through the second hurdle at 102.70. MT pivot resistance lies at 104 (macro bull targets come in at 110 and 114 with ideal objective at 114/117 in…

USD/JPY Macro Low and Fresh Position Webcast

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends on Friday. There will be a lot of changes across the family.</li>
<li>Hang Seng Indices will announce the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and the HSCI after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>There were HUGE inflows to onshore China focused ETFs during the week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> ETFs taking in the largest amounts.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends on Friday. There will be a lot of changes across the family.
Hang Seng Indices will announce the changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI after market close on Friday.
There were HUGE inflows to onshore China focused ETFs during the week with CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index and SSE50 Index ETFs taking in the largest amounts.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: JPXNK400, Kenedix, Positioning - India, Japan, Korea

Japan

FP CORPORATION manufactures polystyrene and other synthetic resin food containers.  The Company produces a variety of products, including trays, lunch boxes, and other food containers.  FP also wholesales packing materials and machinery.  The Company focuses on recycle and environment friendly products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fp Corp (7947 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 31st July - Takeda, Yamato/SG, Seria, FP, Keyence, Dai-Ichi Sankyo

CORRECTION - The last day of July saw the TOPIX index fall by 2.8% to reach a new two-month low, 8.2% below the closing high of June 8th. A...

Campbell Gunn

Major Indexes Testing Resistance

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities,...

Vermilion Research

Japan: (Forecast) Global Index Changes in March & Big Outperformance

There could be 41 changes for the index in March. The passive trading impact is high for most stocks. The adds and upward migrations have...

Brian Freitas

USD/JPY Macro Low and Fresh Position Webcast

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcastWe have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke...

Thomas Schroeder

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: JPXNK400, Kenedix, Positioning - India, Japan, Korea

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)