New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The outlook for Freightways (FRW) is positive, yet given persisting cyclical headwinds we lower our FY25 earnings growth expectations.</li><li>The company has had a subdued past few years with heavy cost inflation and a soft market volume backdrop hampering organic progress.</li><li>While cost inflation has abated and imminent pricing should drive margin upside, a challenging volume environment will limit the extent of earnings growth through the next financial year in the absence of accretive acquisitions.</li></ul>

The outlook for Freightways (FRW) is positive, yet given persisting cyclical headwinds we lower our FY25 earnings growth expectations.The company has had a subdued past few years with heavy cost inflation and a soft market volume backdrop hampering organic progress.While cost inflation has abated and imminent pricing should drive margin upside, a challenging volume environment will limit the extent of earnings growth through the next financial year in the absence of accretive acquisitions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.</li><li>The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.</li><li>Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. </li></ul>

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. 

<ul><li>Freightways (FRW) reported a subdued 1H24 result but provided supportive commentary to a step up in profits in FY25.</li><li>Labour cost pressures, same customer volume declines, start-up costs for Big Chill's Ruakura facility, lower paper prices, and higher depreciation and interest costs all weighed on first-half performance.</li><li>The operating environment is challenging but no worse than it was in October 2023, when the company provided flat to declining FY24 EBITA guidance.</li></ul>

Freightways (FRW) reported a subdued 1H24 result but provided supportive commentary to a step up in profits in FY25.Labour cost pressures, same customer volume declines, start-up costs for Big Chill's Ruakura facility, lower paper prices, and higher depreciation and interest costs all weighed on first-half performance.The operating environment is challenging but no worse than it was in October 2023, when the company provided flat to declining FY24 EBITA guidance.

Freightways - 1H24 — Earnings Momentum Inflection

<ul><li>Freightways (FRW) will report another subdued period of trading at its 1H24 result on 19 February 2024.</li><li>At its Shareholder Meeting in October 2023, management lowered market expectations to broadly flat EBITA in FY24 relative to FY23.</li><li>With the first time inclusion of Allied Express in 1Q24, we expect low EBITA growth in 1H24 (~+2% to NZ$82m), and a small decline in 2H24 (despite a weaker comparative) against the prior year. </li></ul>

Freightways (FRW) will report another subdued period of trading at its 1H24 result on 19 February 2024.At its Shareholder Meeting in October 2023, management lowered market expectations to broadly flat EBITA in FY24 relative to FY23.With the first time inclusion of Allied Express in 1Q24, we expect low EBITA growth in 1H24 (~+2% to NZ$82m), and a small decline in 2H24 (despite a weaker comparative) against the prior year. 

Freightways - 1H24 Preview — Waiting for More Parcels

<ul><li>A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.</li><li>Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.</li><li>The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. </li></ul>

A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. 

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

New Zealand

Freightways Limited provides express package services throughout New Zealand along with providing information management and business mail services.  The Company's courier services includes same day and overnight national and international deliveries, freight forwarding services, computer media transport and payroll data deliveries.

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Freightways Ltd (FRE NZ)

Freightways - Treading Water

The outlook for Freightways (FRW) is positive, yet given persisting cyclical headwinds we lower our FY25 earnings growth expectations.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - A Second Wave

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years. The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight,...

Forsyth Barr

Freightways - 1H24 — Earnings Momentum Inflection

The operating environment is challenging but no worse than it was in October 2023, when the company provided flat to declining FY24 EBITA guidance.

Forsyth Barr

Freightways - 1H24 Preview — Waiting for More Parcels

With the first time inclusion of Allied Express in 1Q24, we expect low EBITA growth in 1H24 (~+2% to NZ$82m), and a small decline in 2H24 (despite...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption. The latter has softened...

Forsyth Barr

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