External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>FY25 marked a step-up in customer acquisition in BPC</li><li>This note, alongside key highlights from the FY25 analyst meet, assesses the feasibility of Nykaa’s stated ambitions across segments</li><li>In BPC, mid-to-late 20s growth target for FY25-30 seems aggressive but plausible (21% CAGR built in)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FY25 marked a step-up in customer acquisition in BPCThis note, alongside key highlights from the FY25 analyst meet, assesses the feasibility of Nykaa’s stated ambitions across segmentsIn BPC, mid-to-late 20s growth target for FY25-30 seems aggressive but plausible (21% CAGR built in)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fsn E-Commerce Ventures: BPC Ambition Plausible, but Fashion’s Seems Lofty. Maintain REDUCE

<ul><li>Nykaa’s core BPC online AUTC/orders are likely to grow at 20/21% CAGR along with rising order frequency over FY25-27E vs a soft 17% in FY24 as focus has decisively shifted toward customer acquisition in core BPC</li><li>Teething issues in its new ad tech stack now seem to have settled</li><li>Ergo, ad/shipping income (non-linear) which bottomed out in FY24 is normalizing upwards (8.6% to 9.8% of NSV in 9MFY25)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nykaa’s core BPC online AUTC/orders are likely to grow at 20/21% CAGR along with rising order frequency over FY25-27E vs a soft 17% in FY24 as focus has decisively shifted toward customer acquisition in core BPCTeething issues in its new ad tech stack now seem to have settledErgo, ad/shipping income (non-linear) which bottomed out in FY24 is normalizing upwards (8.6% to 9.8% of NSV in 9MFY25)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fsn E-commerce Ventures: Step up in BPC customer acquisition encouraging. Maintain ADD

<ul><li>The note ponders the odds of delivery for each segment of Nykaa juxtaposed against its stated ambition</li><li>The BPC ambition of achieving mid-late 20s growth over FY24-28 seems aggressive but plausible (built-in 25% CAGR)</li><li>We expect the focus to shift to customer acquisition amid rising competitive intensity in BPC, compared to the focus on milking existing customers over FY21-24</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The note ponders the odds of delivery for each segment of Nykaa juxtaposed against its stated ambitionThe BPC ambition of achieving mid-late 20s growth over FY24-28 seems aggressive but plausible (built-in 25% CAGR)We expect the focus to shift to customer acquisition amid rising competitive intensity in BPC, compared to the focus on milking existing customers over FY21-24Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fsn E-Commerce Ventures: BPC Ambition Plausible, Fashion’s a Stretch Though.

<ul><li>We recently interacted with Team Nykaa</li><li>Key takeaways from the interaction: (1) Nykaa’s run rate of 4-5mn customer additions annually in BPC (on a cumulative base of 18mn) remains on track (2) ad income dip (as % of revenue) is attributed to teething issues with the new ad tech stack recovery could be a quarter away (3) Fashion’s soft Q1 performance (12% YoY) was an aberration and growth has been trending upwards (4) Fashion business is over its peak investment phase</li><li>However, we suspect BPC cash generation is just about enough to fund growth in Fashion and B2B businesses in FY24</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We recently interacted with Team NykaaKey takeaways from the interaction: (1) Nykaa’s run rate of 4-5mn customer additions annually in BPC (on a cumulative base of 18mn) remains on track (2) ad income dip (as % of revenue) is attributed to teething issues with the new ad tech stack recovery could be a quarter away (3) Fashion’s soft Q1 performance (12% YoY) was an aberration and growth has been trending upwards (4) Fashion business is over its peak investment phaseHowever, we suspect BPC cash generation is just about enough to fund growth in Fashion and B2B businesses in FY24Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fsn E-Commerce Ventures - BPC Momentum Key to Success. Maintain REDUCE

<ul><li>We recently met Nykaa’s management (Mar-23) to primarily track our core thesis and what it holds</li><li>Hence, our REDUCE rating on Nykaa stands with a DCF-based TP of INR110/sh (implying 157x FY25 P/E)</li><li>Our three-point thesis was (1) TAM seemed oversold (2) ad revenue will be closely contended for and (3) Nykaa seems more like an efficient pipe business than a platform</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We recently met Nykaa’s management (Mar-23) to primarily track our core thesis and what it holdsHence, our REDUCE rating on Nykaa stands with a DCF-based TP of INR110/sh (implying 157x FY25 P/E)Our three-point thesis was (1) TAM seemed oversold (2) ad revenue will be closely contended for and (3) Nykaa seems more like an efficient pipe business than a platformContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fsn E-commerce Ventures: The going seems to be getting tougher! Maintain REDUCE

India

FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd., operating as Nykaa, is an Indian retail company specializing in beauty, wellness, and fashion products. It sells products online and through physical stores, offering a wide assortment from various brands, including its own. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded in April 2012.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nykaa (NYKAA IN)

Fsn E-Commerce Ventures: BPC Ambition Plausible, but Fashion’s Seems Lofty. Maintain REDUCE

This note, alongside key highlights from the FY25 analyst meet, assesses the feasibility of Nykaa’s stated ambitions across segments

HDFC Securities

Fsn E-commerce Ventures: Step up in BPC customer acquisition encouraging. Maintain ADD

Nykaa’s core BPC online AUTC/orders are likely to grow at 20/21% CAGR along with rising order frequency over FY25-27E vs a soft 17% in FY24

HDFC Securities

Fsn E-Commerce Ventures: BPC Ambition Plausible, Fashion’s a Stretch Though.

We expect the focus to shift to customer acquisition amid rising competitive intensity in BPC, compared to the focus on milking existing customers...

HDFC Securities

Fsn E-Commerce Ventures - BPC Momentum Key to Success. Maintain REDUCE

Key takeaways from the interaction: (1) Nykaa’s run rate of 4-5mn customer additions annually in BPC (on a cumulative base of 18mn) remains on track

HDFC Securities

Fsn E-commerce Ventures: The going seems to be getting tougher! Maintain REDUCE

We recently met Nykaa’s management (Mar-23) to primarily track our core thesis and what it holds. Hence, our REDUCE rating on Nykaa stands with a...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)