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Equity Bottom-Up

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nykaa’s core BPC online AUTC/orders are likely to grow at 20/21% CAGR along with rising order frequency over FY25-27E vs a soft 17% in FY24 as focus has decisively shifted toward customer acquisition in core BPC</li><li>Teething issues in its new ad tech stack now seem to have settled</li><li>Ergo, ad/shipping income (non-linear) which bottomed out in FY24 is normalizing upwards (8.6% to 9.8% of NSV in 9MFY25)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nykaa’s core BPC online AUTC/orders are likely to grow at 20/21% CAGR along with rising order frequency over FY25-27E vs a soft 17% in FY24 as focus has decisively shifted toward customer acquisition in core BPCTeething issues in its new ad tech stack now seem to have settledErgo, ad/shipping income (non-linear) which bottomed out in FY24 is normalizing upwards (8.6% to 9.8% of NSV in 9MFY25)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fsn E-commerce Ventures: Step up in BPC customer acquisition encouraging. Maintain ADD

<ul><li>The note ponders the odds of delivery for each segment of Nykaa juxtaposed against its stated ambition</li><li>The BPC ambition of achieving mid-late 20s growth over FY24-28 seems aggressive but plausible (built-in 25% CAGR)</li><li>We expect the focus to shift to customer acquisition amid rising competitive intensity in BPC, compared to the focus on milking existing customers over FY21-24</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The note ponders the odds of delivery for each segment of Nykaa juxtaposed against its stated ambitionThe BPC ambition of achieving mid-late 20s growth over FY24-28 seems aggressive but plausible (built-in 25% CAGR)We expect the focus to shift to customer acquisition amid rising competitive intensity in BPC, compared to the focus on milking existing customers over FY21-24Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fsn E-Commerce Ventures: BPC Ambition Plausible, Fashion’s a Stretch Though.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Eicher Motors: Eicher Motors’ Q3FY25 EBITDA margin at 24.9% was below our estimate of 27.2% and Bloomberg consensus estimate of 26.9%</li><li>Despite an adverse product mix, the street expectation was for better operating leverage (volumes up 19.5% QoQ) to overcome the launch and marketing expenses</li><li>However, the expenses related to five launches/unveils were Rs 700mn, which include Rs 200mn related to the EV ‘Flying Flea’.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Eicher Motors: Eicher Motors’ Q3FY25 EBITDA margin at 24.9% was below our estimate of 27.2% and Bloomberg consensus estimate of 26.9%Despite an adverse product mix, the street expectation was for better operating leverage (volumes up 19.5% QoQ) to overcome the launch and marketing expensesHowever, the expenses related to five launches/unveils were Rs 700mn, which include Rs 200mn related to the EV ‘Flying Flea’.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Eicher Motors, FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa), Kansai Nerolac

<ul><li>Hero Motocorp: Hero MotoCorp Q1 PAT at INR 11.2bn (+20% YoY) exceeded our estimate of INR 10.6bn, driven by a better product mix and cost control initiatives</li><li>It continues to focus on the 125cc segment, with capacity increased from 25k units per month to 40k per month to cater to the demand for Xtreme 125R</li><li>With better consumer sentiment aided by marriage dates and the onset of the festive season, a significant recovery is expected in the rural segment</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hero Motocorp: Hero MotoCorp Q1 PAT at INR 11.2bn (+20% YoY) exceeded our estimate of INR 10.6bn, driven by a better product mix and cost control initiativesIt continues to focus on the 125cc segment, with capacity increased from 25k units per month to 40k per month to cater to the demand for Xtreme 125RWith better consumer sentiment aided by marriage dates and the onset of the festive season, a significant recovery is expected in the rural segmentContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Hero Motocorp, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa)

<ul><li>We recently interacted with numerous store managers and companies to assess the festive performance and demand in discretionary categories</li><li>Despite a promising start to the festive season, most categories (excluding jewellery and travel) seem to have hit the snooze button</li><li>Several factors contribute to this, including (1) the normalisation of ticket sizes and purchase frequencies, (2) weak footfalls (on a per sq foot basis), and (3) a trend towards downtrading</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We recently interacted with numerous store managers and companies to assess the festive performance and demand in discretionary categoriesDespite a promising start to the festive season, most categories (excluding jewellery and travel) seem to have hit the snooze buttonSeveral factors contribute to this, including (1) the normalisation of ticket sizes and purchase frequencies, (2) weak footfalls (on a per sq foot basis), and (3) a trend towards downtradingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Festive temperature check: Festive mood sombre

India

FSN E-Commerce Ventures Private Limited providese-retailing beauty and personal care solutions. The Company offers comprehensive selection of makeup, skin and hair care, bath body, fragrance, grooming appliances, personal care, and health and welness categories. FSN E-Commerce Ventures serves customers worldwide.

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN)

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FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN)

Fsn E-commerce Ventures: Step up in BPC customer acquisition encouraging. Maintain ADD

Nykaa’s core BPC online AUTC/orders are likely to grow at 20/21% CAGR along with rising order frequency over FY25-27E vs a soft 17% in FY24

HDFC Securities

Fsn E-Commerce Ventures: BPC Ambition Plausible, Fashion’s a Stretch Though.

We expect the focus to shift to customer acquisition amid rising competitive intensity in BPC, compared to the focus on milking existing customers...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Eicher Motors, FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa), Kansai Nerolac

Eicher Motors: Eicher Motors’ Q3FY25 EBITDA margin at 24.9% was below our estimate of 27.2% and Bloomberg consensus estimate of 26.9%

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Hero Motocorp, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa)

Hero Motocorp: Hero MotoCorp Q1 PAT at INR 11.2bn (+20% YoY) exceeded our estimate of INR 10.6bn, driven by a better product mix and cost control...

HDFC Securities

Festive temperature check: Festive mood sombre

We recently interacted with numerous store managers and companies to assess the festive performance and demand in discretionary categories

HDFC Securities

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