Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

Beijing Roborock Technology  / Index Rebalance

Yesterday evening post market close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>. The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 December.The  inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-silicon-industry-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30349:1" rel="noopener">National Silicon Industry -A (688126 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-roborock-technolog-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30358:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Roborock Technolog-A (688169 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autel-intelligent-technolo-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30369:1" rel="noopener">Autel Intelligent Technolo-A (688208 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-microelect-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30396:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Microelect-A (688396 CH)</a> and SMIC (688981 CH).The deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-harmontronics-autom-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30315:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Harmontronics Autom-A (688022 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-worldia-diamond-tools" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30319:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Worldia Diamond Tools (688028 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-tianyishangjia-new-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30322:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Tianyishangjia New-A (688033 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-baolande-software-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30327:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Baolande Software-A (688058 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-abt-networks-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30357:1" rel="noopener">Beijing ABT Networks Co Ltd (688168 CH)</a>.With a little more than CNY 21bn benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>, there is quite an impact expected on a few stocks. One-way turnover is close to 30% and the funding flow will impact quite a few index constituents with over 1.5 days of ADV to sell. There are only 11 trading days to implementation and we do not expect a lot of pre-positions have been built up on the stocks.

Yesterday evening post market close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX). The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 December.The  inclusions are National Silicon Industry -A (688126 CH), Beijing Roborock Technolog-A (688169 CH), Autel Intelligent Technolo-A (688208 CH), China Resources Microelect-A (688396 CH) and SMIC (688981 CH).The deletions are Suzhou Harmontronics Autom-A (688022 CH), Beijing Worldia Diamond Tools (688028 CH), Beijing Tianyishangjia New-A (688033 CH), Beijing Baolande Software-A (688058 CH) and Beijing ABT Networks Co Ltd (688168 CH).With a little more than CNY 21bn benchmarked to the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX), there is quite an impact expected on a few stocks. One-way turnover is close to 30% and the funding flow will impact quite a few index constituents with over 1.5 days of ADV to sell. There are only 11 trading days to implementation and we do not expect a lot of pre-positions have been built up on the stocks.

STAR 50 Index Rebalance: We Thought BIG, Turns Out Its BIGGER

Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

While many emerging market economies faced with an external debt blowout are scrambling to re-schedule debt with international creditors, that is not a problem Asia faces. In most of Asia balance of payments positions are improving, international reserves are rising, and external debt positions are getting more sustainable.

While many emerging market economies faced with an external debt blowout are scrambling to re-schedule debt with international creditors, that is not a problem Asia faces. In most of Asia balance of payments positions are improving, international reserves are rising, and external debt positions are getting more sustainable.

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We expect China A-share companies' fundamental will be improved sequentially in 4Q20 and 1Q21, led by domestic consumption and cyclical sectors. Thanks to the strict control and mass virus testing, China is in a leading position to contain COVID-19 cases and will be one of the few countries that could deliver upturn growth. For example, air travel and tourism have recovered 90% and 80% respectively to pre-COVID level. </li>
<li>China's September and October total social financing (TSF) came in at RMB 3.5 trillion and 1.4 trillion respectively, which delivered 13.5% year-over-year balance growth in September and 13.7% in October . We expected a sequential downward movement of TSF balance post the peak in September-October. PBoC had injected abnormal liquidity into the system in 1st half 2020 to fight pandemic, we believe the monetary policy will be more controlled in 2021 and the growth of TSF will gradually decelerate. </li>
<li>We expect domestic consumption will pose strong growth compared with lower bases, given the total lockdown in China in early 2020. With the proliferation of mobile internet and increase of dispensable income,  we believe there are many innovations in consumption, such as new dining format, food delivery, online sale streaming and etc. This is also one of the area we observe the biggest inflow of foreign institutional funds in A-share market.</li>
</ul>


We expect China A-share companies' fundamental will be improved sequentially in 4Q20 and 1Q21, led by domestic consumption and cyclical sectors. Thanks to the strict control and mass virus testing, China is in a leading position to contain COVID-19 cases and will be one of the few countries that could deliver upturn growth. For example, air travel and tourism have recovered 90% and 80% respectively to pre-COVID level. 
China's September and October total social financing (TSF) came in at RMB 3.5 trillion and 1.4 trillion respectively, which delivered 13.5% year-over-year balance growth in September and 13.7% in October . We expected a sequential downward movement of TSF balance post the peak in September-October. PBoC had injected abnormal liquidity into the system in 1st half 2020 to fight pandemic, we believe the monetary policy will be more controlled in 2021 and the growth of TSF will gradually decelerate. 
We expect domestic consumption will pose strong growth compared with lower bases, given the total lockdown in China in early 2020. With the proliferation of mobile internet and increase of dispensable income,  we believe there are many innovations in consumption, such as new dining format, food delivery, online sale streaming and etc. This is also one of the area we observe the biggest inflow of foreign institutional funds in A-share market.


China A-Share Strategy: Strong Fundamental Recovery and Decelerated Liquidity Growth

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Yongcheng Coal Default: According to Shanghai Clearing House, Yongcheng Coal and Electricity (YCE) in Henan Province failed to repay a CNY 1 bn (USD 151 mn) short-term bond despite being given the highest rating by one of mainland China’s awful domestic credit ratings agencies; and*Watch Your Banks: The yield on benchmark five-year “AAA” rated mainland Chinese corporates was 3.99% - up over 100 bp from their April 2020 low. Investor flight is pushing financing costs higher and squeezing local corporate funding in a market which is just barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns remain over higher problem loans as debt service risk is heightened over higher rates, unreliable financial statements and ratings agency reports, and now an inability to refinance public debt with a number of bond sales being canceled. Further, the degradation of corporate bond values is limiting their usage as collateral.

*Yongcheng Coal Default: According to Shanghai Clearing House, Yongcheng Coal and Electricity (YCE) in Henan Province failed to repay a CNY 1 bn (USD 151 mn) short-term bond despite being given the highest rating by one of mainland China’s awful domestic credit ratings agencies; and*Watch Your Banks: The yield on benchmark five-year “AAA” rated mainland Chinese corporates was 3.99% - up over 100 bp from their April 2020 low. Investor flight is pushing financing costs higher and squeezing local corporate funding in a market which is just barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns remain over higher problem loans as debt service risk is heightened over higher rates, unreliable financial statements and ratings agency reports, and now an inability to refinance public debt with a number of bond sales being canceled. Further, the degradation of corporate bond values is limiting their usage as collateral.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

We wanted to bring your attention to numerous bullish equity pattern setups in the US and Asia that are taking shape.Bull triangulation in the SPX and NDX point to a major breakout higher with targets noted. Near term risk of a pullback is a buying opportunity. Our recent update and insight called for turning long near SPX 3,21-20 support where we put on risk in the US and Asia.Compelling bullish patterns are itching for a bull breakout in Taiwan, Korea and Australia. CSI 300 flat breakout would make H shares a compelling laggard play.

We wanted to bring your attention to numerous bullish equity pattern setups in the US and Asia that are taking shape.Bull triangulation in the SPX and NDX point to a major breakout higher with targets noted. Near term risk of a pullback is a buying opportunity. Our recent update and insight called for turning long near SPX 3,21-20 support where we put on risk in the US and Asia.Compelling bullish patterns are itching for a bull breakout in Taiwan, Korea and Australia. CSI 300 flat breakout would make H shares a compelling laggard play.

China

The FTSE China A50 Index includes the largest 50 A Share Chinese companies by total market cap. 

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX)

STAR 50 Index Rebalance: We Thought BIG, Turns Out Its BIGGER

The second rebalance of the STAR50 index is going be BIG with 5 additions/deletions and one-way turnover of 30%. We do not expect a lot of pre...

Brian Freitas

Asia External Fundamentals Improve

In the midst what can be described as a trying year, one unexpected outcome is the improvement in Asian external fundamentals.

Sharmila Whelan

Another Day, Another Default

MAINLAND CHINA DEFAULT: Yongcheng Coal Defaulted On Its Debt, Leading To Concerns About The Credibility Of AAA Rated Corporates In Mainland China...

Thomas J. Monaco

Breakout Equity Patterns in Asia and US

Compelling bullish patterns are itching for a bull breakout in Taiwan, Korea and Australia. CSI 300 flat breakout would make H shares a compelling...

Thomas Schroeder

STAR 50 Index Rebalance: We Thought BIG, Turns Out Its BIGGER

The second rebalance of the STAR50 index is going be BIG with 5 additions/deletions and one-way turnover of 30%. We do not expect a lot of pre...

Brian Freitas

Asia External Fundamentals Improve

In the midst what can be described as a trying year, one unexpected outcome is the improvement in Asian external fundamentals.

Sharmila Whelan

China A-Share Strategy: Strong Fundamental Recovery and Decelerated Liquidity Growth

We expect China A-share companies' fundamental will be improved sequentially in 4Q20 and 1Q21, but the growth of liquidity will gradually decelerate.

Roger Xie

Another Day, Another Default

MAINLAND CHINA DEFAULT: Yongcheng Coal Defaulted On Its Debt, Leading To Concerns About The Credibility Of AAA Rated Corporates In Mainland China...

Thomas J. Monaco

Breakout Equity Patterns in Asia and US

Compelling bullish patterns are itching for a bull breakout in Taiwan, Korea and Australia. CSI 300 flat breakout would make H shares a compelling...

Thomas Schroeder