Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

India is between a rock and a hard place. The pandemic still rages and yet as a middle-income developing country it simply cannot afford another national lockdown. The economy, which was slowing well before the current crisis, has been severely hit. A quick economic recovery is not in the cards and the next investment-led business cycle upswing has been further delayed. Rising banking-sector NPLs and a burgeoning budget deficit pose additional downside risks. However, the government’s latest labour market and agriculture sector reforms have laid the foundations for a strong and resilient recovery, when it does take root.

India is between a rock and a hard place. The pandemic still rages and yet as a middle-income developing country it simply cannot afford another national lockdown. The economy, which was slowing well before the current crisis, has been severely hit. A quick economic recovery is not in the cards and the next investment-led business cycle upswing has been further delayed. Rising banking-sector NPLs and a burgeoning budget deficit pose additional downside risks. However, the government’s latest labour market and agriculture sector reforms have laid the foundations for a strong and resilient recovery, when it does take root.

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China securities watchdog revealed the latest reform on QFII/RQFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) scheme to further open up China domestic capital market. The new rule will become effective on Nov. 1, 2020. This is another milestone for China capital market reform and will boost up foreign fund inflow in the long-run. We have written the reform measures early this year: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-a-share-strategy-r-qfii-quota-removal-to-offer-more-attractive-channel-to-invest-in-china" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China A-Share Strategy: R/​QFII Quota Removal to Offer More Attractive Channel to Invest In China</a>
</li>
<li>The most significant changes are the additional investment products that foreign fund managers can participate: 1) non-hedging purpose investments in index futures/options, 2) margin financing and securities lending for short-selling purpose, 3) private investment funds, 4) FICC derivatives in commodity exchanges and inter-bank market. We believe these reforms could offer comprehensive investment solutions to sophisticated institutional investors.</li>
<li>Foreign Funds' China A-share positions have accounted about 4% of A-share total market-cap, or 9% of A-share free-float market-cap by the end of 1H 2020. Nowadays, foreign investors have multiple channels to deploy their capital into China A-share market: QFII scheme, RMB-QFII scheme, or stock connect program via Hong Kong exchange (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>).  Given the increasing weight of China A-share in global benchmark indices, we believe foreign funds' China A-share positions will continue to rise and will reach 10% of A-share total market-cap in next 10 years.</li>
</ul>


China securities watchdog revealed the latest reform on QFII/RQFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) scheme to further open up China domestic capital market. The new rule will become effective on Nov. 1, 2020. This is another milestone for China capital market reform and will boost up foreign fund inflow in the long-run. We have written the reform measures early this year: China A-Share Strategy: R/​QFII Quota Removal to Offer More Attractive Channel to Invest In China

The most significant changes are the additional investment products that foreign fund managers can participate: 1) non-hedging purpose investments in index futures/options, 2) margin financing and securities lending for short-selling purpose, 3) private investment funds, 4) FICC derivatives in commodity exchanges and inter-bank market. We believe these reforms could offer comprehensive investment solutions to sophisticated institutional investors.
Foreign Funds' China A-share positions have accounted about 4% of A-share total market-cap, or 9% of A-share free-float market-cap by the end of 1H 2020. Nowadays, foreign investors have multiple channels to deploy their capital into China A-share market: QFII scheme, RMB-QFII scheme, or stock connect program via Hong Kong exchange (HKEX (388 HK)).  Given the increasing weight of China A-share in global benchmark indices, we believe foreign funds' China A-share positions will continue to rise and will reach 10% of A-share total market-cap in next 10 years.


China A-Share Strategy: Deregulation in QFII/RQFII Scheme to Boost up Foreign Fund Inflow

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*A Market With Little Discipline: Too many market participants have very little discipline, and to make matters worse, central banks have been all too happy to remove the moral hazard involved with excessive risk taking. This has resulted in the creation of a giant vortex of liquidity which could be as large as USD 1 quadrillion;*Broken Credit Ratings Agency Model: In our view, the credit ratings agency model is permanently broken as waterfall risks in various rated pools and tranches have become increasingly significant with the markets unable to self-regulate and regulators either unable to regulate (or told not to regulate);  and*SEC Far From Being Aggressive With Enforcement: In reality, the fines paid by Kroll/DBRS are not even a drop in the bucket compared with the USD 1.5 bn and USD 864 mn fines paid by S&amp;P (MH) and Moody's (MCO.US), respectively, to settle similar charges associated with the GFC. Whether this reflects more of a lower level of violations or a much less aggressive SEC regulator can be debated. It will be interesting to see is whether these investigations are expanded to include 2018-19 deals which appear to have even greater conflicts - particularly under Biden administration.

*A Market With Little Discipline: Too many market participants have very little discipline, and to make matters worse, central banks have been all too happy to remove the moral hazard involved with excessive risk taking. This has resulted in the creation of a giant vortex of liquidity which could be as large as USD 1 quadrillion;*Broken Credit Ratings Agency Model: In our view, the credit ratings agency model is permanently broken as waterfall risks in various rated pools and tranches have become increasingly significant with the markets unable to self-regulate and regulators either unable to regulate (or told not to regulate);  and*SEC Far From Being Aggressive With Enforcement: In reality, the fines paid by Kroll/DBRS are not even a drop in the bucket compared with the USD 1.5 bn and USD 864 mn fines paid by S&amp;P (MH) and Moody's (MCO.US), respectively, to settle similar charges associated with the GFC. Whether this reflects more of a lower level of violations or a much less aggressive SEC regulator can be debated. It will be interesting to see is whether these investigations are expanded to include 2018-19 deals which appear to have even greater conflicts - particularly under Biden administration. 

Economic disruptions due to Covid-19 reduced global US dollar purchasing power by US$3.8trn in the first half of the year. Compared with advanced economies, developing Asia has fared better, relatively speaking. Asian exports have rebounded as the China’s economy  has normalised and as lockdown restrictions in the US and Europe eased over the summer. August regional trade data suggests that the best is behind for Asian exporters though. While one month’s worth of data does not constitute a trend,  there are good reasons to be cautious.  The post- Covid-19 recovery is petering out. The number of infection cases are once again rising in the US and Europe while US restrictions on Chinese technology companies are tightening Notwithstanding another round of government enforced national lockdowns in advanced countries, we expect Asian export growth to moderate from here.

Economic disruptions due to Covid-19 reduced global US dollar purchasing power by US$3.8trn in the first half of the year. Compared with advanced economies, developing Asia has fared better, relatively speaking. Asian exports have rebounded as the China’s economy  has normalised and as lockdown restrictions in the US and Europe eased over the summer. August regional trade data suggests that the best is behind for Asian exporters though. While one month’s worth of data does not constitute a trend,  there are good reasons to be cautious.  The post- Covid-19 recovery is petering out. The number of infection cases are once again rising in the US and Europe while US restrictions on Chinese technology companies are tightening Notwithstanding another round of government enforced national lockdowns in advanced countries, we expect Asian export growth to moderate from here. 

*Export Restrictions On SMIC: The US Commerce Department has reportedly imposed export restrictions on mainland China’s SMIC (largest semiconductor firm), with American US firms being required to apply for a license in order to export certain products to SMIC. These restrictions were reportedly implemented due to "an unacceptable risk of diversion to a military end use" and confirmed the recent market speculation of US action against SMIC;*Unreliable Entity List: Mainland China’s Ministry of Commerce finally issued regulations for its “unreliable entity” list aimed at foreign companies that it deems endanger national sovereignty, security, or development interests. Companies which end up on the list could be banned from importing/exporting from/to mainland China, and may be barred from investing in the country; and*Taiwan Flashpoint Coming: Rhetoric between is also being ramped up militarily between both sides over Taiwan, as the US government is contemplating providing Taiwan with an advanced defensive system and provocations of more "high-level official visits to Taiwan" by U.S. officials.

*Export Restrictions On SMIC: The US Commerce Department has reportedly imposed export restrictions on mainland China’s SMIC (largest semiconductor firm), with American US firms being required to apply for a license in order to export certain products to SMIC. These restrictions were reportedly implemented due to "an unacceptable risk of diversion to a military end use" and confirmed the recent market speculation of US action against SMIC;*Unreliable Entity List: Mainland China’s Ministry of Commerce finally issued regulations for its “unreliable entity” list aimed at foreign companies that it deems endanger national sovereignty, security, or development interests. Companies which end up on the list could be banned from importing/exporting from/to mainland China, and may be barred from investing in the country; and*Taiwan Flashpoint Coming: Rhetoric between is also being ramped up militarily between both sides over Taiwan, as the US government is contemplating providing Taiwan with an advanced defensive system and provocations of more "high-level official visits to Taiwan" by U.S. officials.

Trump Administration Continues to Ratchet Up The Pressure

China

The FTSE China A50 Index includes the largest 50 A Share Chinese companies by total market cap. 

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX)

India - Pushing Ahead with Reforms

India is between a rock and a hard place. However, the government’s latest labour market and agriculture reforms have laid the foundations for a...

Sharmila Whelan

Ratings Agencies – Beyond Repair

*A Market With Little Discipline: Too many market participants have very little discipline, and to make matters worse, central banks have been all...

Thomas J. Monaco

Asian Exports & Covid - Best Is Behind

Economic disruptions due to Covid-19 reduced global US dollar purchasing power by US$3.8trn in the first half of the year. Compared with advanced...

Sharmila Whelan

Trump Administration Continues to Ratchet Up The Pressure

*Export Restrictions On SMIC: The US Commerce Department has reportedly imposed export restrictions on mainland China’s SMIC (largest semiconductor...

Thomas J. Monaco

India - Pushing Ahead with Reforms

India is between a rock and a hard place. However, the government’s latest labour market and agriculture reforms have laid the foundations for a...

Sharmila Whelan

China A-Share Strategy: Deregulation in QFII/RQFII Scheme to Boost up Foreign Fund Inflow

We believe foreign funds' China A-share positions will continue to rise and will reach 10% of A-share total market-cap in next 10 years.

Roger Xie

Ratings Agencies – Beyond Repair

*A Market With Little Discipline: Too many market participants have very little discipline, and to make matters worse, central banks have been all...

Thomas J. Monaco

Asian Exports & Covid - Best Is Behind

Economic disruptions due to Covid-19 reduced global US dollar purchasing power by US$3.8trn in the first half of the year. Compared with advanced...

Sharmila Whelan

Trump Administration Continues to Ratchet Up The Pressure

*Export Restrictions On SMIC: The US Commerce Department has reportedly imposed export restrictions on mainland China’s SMIC (largest semiconductor...

Thomas J. Monaco